Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 13: Brandon Aiyuk, DeAndre Hopkins, Courtland Sutton, Josh Downs, Diontae Johnson

Welcome to Week 13 WR Matchups to Target for the main slate. Last week three of our five picks hit the two-times multiplier on DraftKings (fantasy points per $1,000 in salary), including two picks that finished top 10 at the position in DraftKings points. We’ll use the same principles to make picks for this week.

Week 12 saw more consistency from 2023’s top receiving performers, including Tyreek Hill’s eighth week within the top six at wide receiver in DraftKings points. Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, and Mike Evans all finished in the top 10 at the position for at least the fourth time this past week. Rookies Rashee Rice and Zay Flowers made their first appearances on that list in Week 12. Who will crack the list for the first time this week?

Each week we use matchup data from PFF to determine wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. Below are five of the top WR vs. CB matchups for this week’s DFS main slate. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS.

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

$7,200 on DraftKings, $8,00 on FanDuel; vs. James Bradberry

Aiyuk holds the top matchup advantage of any receiver this week according to PFF, with a matchup advantage of 92.5 against the Philadelphia secondary. 

As the WR14 in PPR scoring, Aiyuk has formally taken over the top receiver mantle in the 49ers offense. He has at least 13 fantasy points in four straight games and takes on an Eagles defense ranked as the 7th best matchup for receivers this week according to PFF. 

The Eagles have the 13th-highest man coverage rate in the NFL. Aiyuk is in a great spot to continue producing this week, having earned 0.86 fantasy points per route run versus man thus far in 2023 (fourth among receivers). As the seventh-highest-priced receiver on the slate, Aiyuk could easily finish in the top five for the third time on Sunday.

DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans

$6,100 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel; vs. Jaylon Jones

Hopkins has been the definition of boom or bust this year, finishing in the top 10 receivers twice while finishing worse than WR50 five times. He has been trending upwards in the second half of this season with QB Will Levis under center and is in position for another great finish this week against the Colts.

Indianapolis is the 5th best matchup for receivers this week according to PFF’s strength of schedule metric. Hopkins lines up in the X position 47% of the time and will line up opposite right corner Jaylon Jones predominantly. Jones has a 63.9 defensive grade, compared to a 79.5 grade for Hopkins so far in 2023. 

The Colts play the highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL. Hopkins is 12th in fantasy points per route run against zone (0.47) and owns a 24.2% target rate against that coverage. He is a good bet to hit his receiving over as well (52.5 receiving yards according to DraftKings Sportsbook).

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

$5,400 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel; vs. Steven Nelson

The Broncos have looked like an entirely new team in recent weeks as they have turned around their season with five straight wins. They are eighth in the NFL in points per game over their last three games (24.7 points). 

Sutton has been the Broncos leading receiver by far through 12 weeks, with 68 targets, 48 catches, 560 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns (tied for third in the NFL in receiving touchdowns). Denver matches up with Houston this week, the 20th-ranked defense in DVOA. 

The game has a 47.5 point over/under with the Texans favored by three. In a passing game script with an offense that is firing on all cylinders, Sutton is a great bet to return value this week.

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Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts

$5,100 on DraftKings, $6,100 on FanDuel; vs. Roger McCreary

Downs and the Indianapolis offense have been a pleasant surprise most weeks with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. They rank eighth in points per game and in the top half of the league in passing yards per game and offensive DVOA. 

This week the Colts face off with the Titans, the third-best matchup for receivers this week according to PFF and the ninth-worst defense overall according to DVOA. Downs lines up 84% of the time in the slot and has a healthy matchup advantage over Titans slot corner Roger McCreary (74.7 offensive PFF grade vs. 65 defensive grade).

Downs is a particular steal on FanDuel, where he is the 31st receiver in price on the slate despite the upside to finish top-24 at the position this week. He is an excellent pick for GPP/tournament contests while his counterpart Michael Pittman Jr. is a great cash game play again this week.

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

$5,000 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel; vs. Kei'Trel Clark

Johnson sticks out this week as having an excellent matchup advantage against the Cardinals, who rank 30th in defensive DVOA and are the 4th-best matchup for receivers this week based on PFF’s strength of schedule metric.

The Steelers offense has been wildly inconsistent so far this year but is looking to find its footing after the firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada last week. Johnson drew eight targets for the second straight week last week as he rounds into form after missing five games earlier this season with a back injury.

The Cardinals play zone coverage at a top-five rate this season. Johnson has tallied a 24.6% target rate against zone while Arizona has given up 7.1 yards per snap in that coverage (third-worst in the NFL). The Cardinals present one of the best matchups for receivers this week, and Johnson is in the best position to take advantage of that on Sunday.

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!

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