Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 12 - DK Metcalf, Courtland Sutton, Jauan Jennings, Noah Brown, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

Week 12 is here, and with it, another edition of WR Matchups to Target. Last week was one of our most successful of the season, with two home run DFS picks (3x multiplier on DraftKings salary) in Jauan Jennings and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to go along with two additional hits (2x multiplier). Week 12 brings a tougher slate to navigate with six teams on bye.

Each week, we will use matchup data from PFF to determine which wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. These players are more likely to return a 3x multiplier on their DraftKings salary, a benchmark for consistently winning DFS cash games. 

Below are five top WR vs. CB matchups for this week’s DFS main slate. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player-prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS. Let's get to it.

DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

$6.6K on DraftKings, $7.9K on FanDuel; vs. Sean Murphy-Bunting

Metcalf returned from a knee sprain last week to satisfactory volume against the 49ers, hauling in seven of his nine targets for 70 yards. Despite missing three games this year, the 26-year-old ranks third among receivers in deep targets (20) and eighth in air yards (935). 

With the spotlight on second-year pro Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Metcalf has underperformed his ADP so far this season. He is averaging 19 expected fantasy points per game (seventh among receivers) per PlayerProfiler while tallying 15 actual points per game. This is a week to bet on Metcalf, however, who has a juicy matchup against the Cardinals next.

Arizona is PFF’s 2nd best matchup of the week for receivers. Metcalf is projected to see most of his snaps against CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, who has a paltry 53.3 PFF defensive grade. The third-year pro will be able to take advantage of a size and speed mismatch on deep throws, making him a great bet for cash games this week.

DK Metcalf sees the Cardinals who run Cover 3 at the 7th highest rate in the NFL (36%). DK has eaten vs Cover 3 this year, see below:

- Vs. All Coverages: 25% TPRR, 2.32 YPRR, 27.5% 1st Read Tgt Share
- Vs. Cover 3: 34% TPRR, 2.82 YPRR, 32.6% 1st Read Tgt Share

Could be a huge…

— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) November 22, 2024

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

$5.8K on DraftKings, $7.1K on FanDuel; vs. Decamerion Richardson

Sutton was featured in this article last week, and while he failed to produce a third-straight WR6 performance, his rapport with QB Bo Nix was on full display. Sutton was targeted eight times, including three in the red zone while finishing with 78 receiving yards. His 15 red zone targets rank fourth among all receivers, and his 1,098 air yards rank second. 

The Broncos travel to Las Vegas on Sunday. The Raiders rank as the fifth-best matchup for receivers according to PFF’s strength of schedule metric, and the seventh-worst passing defense by DVOA. The Raiders may also be without two of their top four defensive backs by PFF grade in CBs Nate Hobbs (63 PFF coverage grade) and Jakorian Bennett (61 PFF coverage grade).

Sutton’s volume both downfield and in the red zone gives him an incredibly high ceiling every single week. For a receiver who is the 17th-priced at his position in DraftKings, there is no better value on the main slate.

Is Courtland Sutton a WR2 in your eyes? 👀

Full story: https://t.co/B31uCMXtDJ pic.twitter.com/EZRf06P3xs

— Rotoworld by NBC Sports (@rotoworld) November 22, 2024

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Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers

$5.6K on DraftKings, $6.7K on FanDuel; vs. Javon Bullard

Readers who followed our advice last week benefited from 25.1 PPR points out of Jennings against the Seahawks. His price in DFS has not caught up to his role in the explosive 49ers offense, which has him ranked WR12 in fantasy points per game through Week 11.

Jennings has one of the top individual matchups according to FantasyPoints this week, giving him the 5th best matchup grade. Jennings is projected to go up primarily against CB Javon Bullard, who is offering up 0.33 fantasy points per route covered (eighth-most among all eligible corners this week). 

With QB Brandon Allen starting in place of injured Brock Purdy on Sunday, Jennings will be a contrarian pick for GPP tournaments. Jennings has had a tremendous role in Kyle Shanahan’s offense of late with 22 targets over his last two games and is likely to be a large part of the game plan once again.

Noah Brown, Washington Commanders

$4.2K on DraftKings, $5.4K on FanDuel; vs. Caelen Carson

Noah Brown has struggled to make a third-year-year leap with Washington after a promising start to his career in Houston, ranking 72nd among receivers in fantasy points per game thus far. He has shown stronger rapport with Jayden Daniels of late, with at least six targets in three of his last four contests. 

If there is ever a week to bet on the lesser-known Brown, it is this week. The Commanders have a Divisional matchup against the Cowboys on Sunday, the 3rd best-receiving matchup of the week according to PFF’s strength of schedule tool, and the 4th worst passing defense by DVOA. Since Week 6, Dallas has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

The Cowboys deploy zone coverage at a top-12 rate, against which Brown has commanded a 19.9% target rate to go along with a healthy 0.37 fantasy points per route run. He is a great dart throw this week based on the matchup.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tennessee Titans

$4.1K on DraftKings, $5.5K on FanDuel; vs. Kamari Lassiter

Westbrook-Ikhine is my favorite dart throw DFS pick of the week. Much has been made about the speedster’s recent touchdown streak (five touchdowns in his last six games) which has certainly helped his target efficiency (2.8 fantasy points per target, second in the NFL). He also, however, ranks ninth among receivers in yards per reception and sixth in contested catch rate. 

Metrics like that are helping Westbrook-Ikhine show he can be a true deep threat for QB Will Levis, who has shown a penchant for the deep ball. The Titans receiver is averaging 13.4 full PPR points per game over his last four. Matching that average this week would put him safely in the DFS home run pick category in DraftKings.

The Titans have a matchup with Houston next, who have given up the ninth most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. The Texans gave up 86 receiving yards and a touchdown to KaVontae Turpin last week. Look for Westbrook-Ikhine to stay hot in Week 12.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine HOUSE CALL 💨

(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/pq28np7BIb

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) November 17, 2024

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!

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