Wide Receiver Matchups to Target for Week 13 Thanksgiving Slate: Keenan Allen, Wan'Dale Robinson, Jalen Tolbert

Welcome to a special Thanksgiving edition of WR Matchups to Target. Week 12 was our best slate of the season, with three of our five picks being home runs that finished over the 3x multiplier on DraftKings salary. 

Each week we use matchup data from PFF to determine wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. These are players more likely to return a 3x multiplier on their DraftKings salary, a benchmark for consistently winning DFS cash games. 

Below are three of the top WR vs. CB matchups for this week’s DFS Thanksgiving slate. Use these to set season-long lineups, make player prop picks, and gain an edge in DFS.

Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears

$5.1k on DraftKings, $6.5k on FanDuel; vs. Emmanuel Moseley

Allen enters Week 13 on a high, coming off a season-best 23.6 DraftKings points in which he had 15 targets and nine catches for 86 yards (all season highs). He is averaging 9.75 targets per game over his last four games, and his 26.6% team target share over the course of the season ranks 12th among all receivers.

The Bears are 10-point underdogs against the Lions on Thursday, meaning a passing game script for Chicago that will help Allen continue his impressive target streak. 

Detroit has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. The Lions play man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL. Allen excels against man coverage, leading the Bears in target rate and fantasy points per route run against man.

Allen is a high floor play in cash games this week, as is his teammate DJ Moore.

#Bears first-read target shares under OC Thomas Brown over the last 2 weeks (per @FantasyPtsData)

Keenan Allen: 33.8%
Rome Odunze: 26.2%
D.J. Moore: 21.5%

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 26, 2024

Wan'Dale Robinson, New York Giants

$4.7k on DraftKings, $5.6k on FanDuel; vs. Jourdan Lewis

Despite ranking WR41 in fantasy points per game, Wan’Dale Robinson is a PPR darling, ranking seventh among receivers in receptions and eighth in targets. He also ranks eighth in red zone targets, giving him an attractive volume that makes him a great pick in the right matchups. 

The 23-year-old already has career-bests in targets, receptions, and receiving touchdowns this year with six games to go. The Giants have the eighth-fastest offensive tempo, running an average of 64.4 players per 60 minutes according to FTN.

The Cowboys deploy zone coverage at a top-12 rate. Robinson has a healthy 25.2% target rate and a 0.30 fantasy points per route run rate against zone. He also runs almost exclusively from the slot (second-most slot routes in the NFL thus far), meaning he’ll have a great opportunity to continue his impressive volume by finding the soft spots in the middle of Dallas’ zone defense.

Robinson is a great pivot from Nabers, who is $3.4k more expensive on DK this week.

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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023

Jalen Tolbert, Dallas Cowboys

$3.8k on DraftKings, $5.2k on FanDuel; vs. Cordale Flott

Tolbert is my favorite dart throw of this Thanksgiving slate. The 25-year-old has impressed in stints this year, tallying four touchdowns thus far and ranking 16th among receivers in deep targets. He has five or more targets in seven of his 11 games.

Dallas’ matchup with the Giants is the 11th best of the week according to PFF’s strength of schedule metric. The Giants defense ranks 29th in passing DVOA. Tolbert lines up on the outside 71% of the time, where he will have beatable matchups against CBs Cordale Flott (63.1 PFF defensive grade) and Deonte Banks (51.3 grade).

Tolbert averages 11.7 expected fantasy points per game according to PlayerProfiler. If he can match that mark this week, he’ll go above the 3x salary multiplier on DK. He is a great bet this week to outperform his salary on DraftKings.

Happy Thanksgiving, and good luck with your DFS contests!

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