Wide Receiver Matchups to Target for Super Bowl LVIII

Welcome to Wide Receiver Matchups to Target for Super Bowl LVIII: 49ers vs. Chiefs. Last week’s picks stayed hot, yielding two double-multiplier finishes (two fantasy points per $1,000 in DraftKings salary). We will look to keep the streak alive to finish the 2023 season on a high this Sunday.

The Super Bowl Showdown Slate is a particularly difficult one for GPP/tournament contests this year, with both teams more likely to rely heavily on their top, high-priced weapons for offensive production. While QB, RB, and TE all offer a clear-cut number-one choice to spend up on this week, the WR position is a bit more crowded at the top. Finding ways to pivot from the top-priced option at receiver will be necessary this week to leave salary for studs at other positions.

Each week we use matchup data from PFF to determine wide receivers to target based on who they will be primarily lining up against that week. Below are a few of the top WR vs. CB matchups for Super Bowl LVIII. Use these to make player prop picks and gain an edge in DFS one final time this season.

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

$8,800 on DraftKings, $10,500 on FanDuel; vs. Joshua Williams

Aiyuk’s name appeared in this column frequently this season as a continual star of PFF’s WR/CB Matchup tool, so it is fitting to see Aiyuk stand out one final time to wrap the 2023 campaign.

Aiyuk has the top overall matchup in this game, with primary matchups against Joshua Williams and L'Jarius Sneed. His 92.3 PFF offensive grade finished second among all receivers this season, giving a sizable advantage opposite the 73.8 and 71.0 defensive grades of Williams and Sneed, respectively.

The Chiefs deploy man coverage at a top-five rate. Aiyuk has excelled against man this season, achieving a 26.8% target rate and leading his team in targets, receptions, and fantasy points against man coverage by a substantial margin. He has an excellent opportunity to lead the 49ers in receiving despite coming in cheaper than his counterpart Deebo Samuel on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

 
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Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

$7,600 on DraftKings, $11,000 on FanDuel; vs. Deommodore Lenoir

Correctly predicting touchdown scorers and volume of receptions is critical for winning any Showdown Slate, which makes Rashee Rice an excellent pick in DFS for Super Bowl LVIII. 

Rice has the best matchup of any Chiefs receiver by far this week with a 68.6 overall matchup advantage. PFF projects a particularly sizable advantage for Rice against right CB Ambry Thomas who has the lowest defensive grade of the key San Francisco defensive backs (71.6). While Rice plays primarily out of the slot, he lines up in the X-receiver position 28% of the time where he will match up with Thomas.

The rookie has averaged nine targets and seven catches per game since Week 12. He boasts a 25% target share against zone coverage, which the 49ers have deployed 77% of the time this season. 

While San Francisco is unlikely to bottle up the treacherous Travis Kelce for four quarters, their linebackers and safeties match up particularly well against TEs and should give Kelce trouble. With the Chiefs leaning on short passes over the middle and behind the line of scrimmage throughout the playoffs, Rice is in a great position to lead his team in targets. Start him with confidence.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kansas City Chiefs

$3,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel; vs. Ambry Thomas

Valdes-Scantling and fellow receiver Justin Watson solidified their standing as the field-stretching third and fourth receiving options for the Chiefs over the second half of the season, but MVS is the better play in Super Bowl LVIII.

Valdes-Scantling has been particularly hot in the playoffs, tallying 100 total receiving yards over his last two games while significantly outsnapping Watson over that span (92 to 58). MVS has also averaged 66.6 receiving yards in five career games against San Francisco, including a three-catch, 111-yard performance in his most recent game against them last season. He ran a season-high 96% of routes in the AFC Championship and is in line for similar usage on Sunday.

The 29-year-old ran the most routes against zone coverage of any Chiefs receiver this season (San Francisco’s preferred coverage) and was second behind Rice in WR production against zone. He is a particular value on DraftKings at $3,000 – no other offensive player in that salary range comes close to his projected output. Look for MVS to make at least one field-stretching play to return value at his discounted cost.

Bonus: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

$6,400 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel; vs. Nick Bolton

We're cheating with a non-receiver pick to round out our top Super Bowl matchups. Kittle comes at a significant discount to Travis Kelce in DFS this week ($3,800 cheaper on DraftKings and $3,000 cheaper on FanDuel) and has to be considered as an alternative to the chalk.

PFF projects a 33% matchup advantage for Kittle over linebacker Nick Bolton in this one, with the All-Pro tight end's offensive grade of 87.5 far outpacing Bolton's 68.9 defensive grade. Down the field, Kittle will likely face undersized safety Mike Edwards, a top one-on-one matchup the 49ers will look to capitalize on.

Kittle has only caught more than four passes once since Week 10 so he is not likely to be a high-volume choice, but he is a solid bet for a game-breaking play or touchdown in Super Bowl LVIII.

Thanks for reading this season, and good luck with your DFS contests!

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