RADIO
Mitch Blatt looks at the impact of free agency on the fantasy football wide receiver landscape, determining whether current ADPs are reflective of teams' moves this offseason.
The 2025 NFL free-agent receiver market looked like the 2021 fantasy football leaderboard. Former triple crown winner Cooper Kupp, perennial top-5 finisher Davante Adams, and playmakers Stefon Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins all changed teams. Seattle’s longtime duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are both gone.
The one star receiver still in his prime who was set to hit the market was Tee Higgins, and he signed an extension to stay with the Bengals. Some of the veterans still have juice and ended up in better situations.
The top-line ADPs are sourced from the Fantasy Football Players Championships (FFPC).
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Fantasy Football Wide Receiver ADP Risers
Malik Nabers, New York Giants - ADP 10/WR4
Malik Nabers was one of the most productive downfield receivers in the 2024 draft class. But the Giants, with their revolving carousel of terrible quarterbacks, couldn’t get him the ball deep.
They tried. Nabers tied with George Pickens for the fourth-most targets of 20 yards or more (29), but he only ended up coming down with seven of those, tying two handfuls of receivers for No. 22 most.
Now, Nabers has Russell Wilson, who led the league in moonball completion percentage, coming in at quarterback. If he matches George Pickens’ 52 percent catch rate on deep passes, that would allow him to gain about 216 more yards in a season.
DeAndre Hopkins, Baltimore Ravens - ADP 204/WR73
DeAndre Hopkins’ production improved slightly after an early season trade from the Titans to the Chiefs, but the Ravens should be even better than both teams for the downfield threat.
The Chiefs have been running a dink-and-dunk offense that doesn’t highlight Hopkins’ abilities. Patrick Mahomes only averaged 6.8 yards per attempt last season, down from 8.1 in 2022 and over 8.0 for each of his first three seasons.
Lamar Jackson, by contrast, has averaged 8.0 or more yards per attempt in each of the past two seasons and led the league with 8.8 yards per attempt last season.
Hopkins has typically been best at passes of 20 yards or deeper. Jackson was top-5 in deep-passing volume; 14.0 percent of his passes went for over 19 yards.
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers - ADP 229/WR79
A return to the Los Angeles Chargers is now a reality for Mike Williams, where he has a connection with Justin Herbert.
Williams' stock rose from an all-time low of WR144 to WR117 in mid-April on KeepTradeCut, which measures dynasty value. His ADP in the FFPC is higher because it is a redraft competition.
In his last season with the Chargers in 2023, he averaged 83.0 yards per game -- albeit in three games. He went for over 700 yards in each of his past four healthy seasons, including two 1,000-yard campaigns.
He probably won't sniff 1,000 yards at age 31, but he ought to be better than his mess of a 2024 season.
Joshua Palmer, Buffalo Bills - ADP 190/WR68
The Bills need people to throw to. Palmer signed with the Bills for $9.7 million per year after four seasons with the Chargers. He filled in as a starter after the Chargers receivers were decimated by injuries.
One of his weaknesses has been low touchdown totals. He should have more scoring opportunities in Buffalo. The Bills offense led the league in scoring last season and has outscored the Chargers every year of Palmer's career.
Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders - ADP 101/WR39
Geno Smith is a big upgrade over the Raiders quarterbacks for the past two seasons. In each of the past three seasons, he ranked in the top 16 in PFF offense grade, all while playing behind a subpar offensive line in Seattle.
Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew II ranked No. 36 and 37, respectively. Jakobi Meyers set career highs with 87 catches for 1,027 receiving yards on 129 targets last season.
He was the No. 1 receiver after Davante Adams was traded, but he did that even with Brock Bowers getting double-digit targets in many games.
The Raiders might still add a solid receiver in the draft, and while competition could limit Meyers to around 700-900 yards, playing in a stronger overall offense could boost his touchdown total from a dismal four last season.
National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) drafters could have gotten him in the mid-eighth round in February, but now he's typically going in the eighth.
Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams - ADP 49/WR20
Leaving the dysfunction of the Jets for Sean McVay’s Rams should be good for Davante Adams. Sean McVay is one of the most innovative play-callers of his era.
In his eight years in L.A., McVay’s Rams have ranked in the top 10 in scoring offense four times and top 10 in total yards five times.
At this point, Matthew Stafford is a better passer than Aaron Rodgers, both in the real-world NFL and in fantasy production, and he’s much better than Justin Fields.
Similarly, Adams’ ADP in NFFC drafts rose from the 40s in early May to the mid-30s in early April, but it's still being held down by pre-May drafts.
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver ADP Fallers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks - ADP 28/WR13
Consider the following: Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Sam Darnold looked much better with the Minnesota Vikings than they did with any other football team.
Darnold did that behind the No. 2-ranked offensive line in pass-block win rate last season. But he fell apart when pressured. Now, Darnold joins the Seahawks, who ranked No. 21 in pass-block win rate last season.
Sam Darnold is a downgrade from Geno Smith. JSN may have solidified his place as Seattle’s unquestioned No. 1, but his production will suffer until Seattle finds a franchise QB.
DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers - ADP 68/WR29
It is possible -- likely even -- that the Pittsburgh Steelers will end up finding a quarterback before the season starts. Maybe that quarterback will be Aaron Rodgers.
Maybe he will be good, maybe not. But Metcalf joins a run-heavy Arthur Smith offense in which his skill set overlaps with that of George Pickens.
Cooper Kupp, Seattle Seahawks - ADP 113/WR42
The Rams moving on from Cooper Kupp shows where Kupp is in his career. His landing spot in Seattle is a significant downgrade in terms of quarterback, offensive line, and coaching.
Kupp has dropped two spots among KeepTradeCut's WR rankings in the past 30 days.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Miami Dolphins - ADP 340/WR98
The TD-dependent WR will be buried on the depth chart, and he won’t have as many chances to go big on YOLO plays.
Eight of Westbrook-Ikhine’s touchdowns came on passes 10 or more yards downfield, as did about three-quarters of his receiving yards. Will Levis has an arm and reckless abandon.
Tua Tagovailoa only has reckless abandon when it comes to his body. He’s careful with the football, and his deep-passing rate was the lowest of any starting quarterback last season.
Tyler Lockett, Free Agent - ADP 350+
Tyler Lockett’s fantasy value is taking a ride on a shopping cart careening down the hills of Seattle. Since the start of last season, Lockett has dropped from WR66 on KeepTradeCut to around WR100 by the end of the season.
His subsequently being cut and having no team sign him until now has dropped him to WR135. If and when he does end up signing, he would likely settle around WR125.
Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - ADP 142/WR52
Jalen McMillan had a productive second half of his rookie season, especially after Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both went down with injuries. In each of the last five games of the season, McMillan was targeted five or more times and gained 50 or more yards.
McMillan's managers hoped Godwin would leave this offseason, which would have opened up a larger role for the Washington product, but instead, Godwin re-signed for three years.
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