Wide Receiver Breakouts for Fantasy Football: Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends for Puka Nacua, Chris Olave, Josh Downs, Jakobi Meyers

Phil analyzes fantasy football wide receiver risers and fallers, looking at last week's targets and receptions to find Week 8 (2023) buy-lows or sell-highs.

You are already aware that wide receivers will play a critical role in the success of your teams. The undeniable volatility that exists with the running back position has also presented an increasing rationale for prioritizing wide receivers when you build your rosters – both at the onset of your drafts and as you manage your teams throughout the entire season.

The numbers that are generated by all wide receivers provide the foundation for this weekly statistical breakdown of the position, which I will be constructing for a sixth consecutive season. This will be the seventh installment that will examine game-specific data, including updated totals for targets, air yards, targets per route run, yards per route run, red-zone targets, and snap counts. The information that is contained in this weekly report will analyze how various receivers are being utilized, and how effectively they are capitalizing on their opportunities.

As the season progresses noteworthy changes in usage and production will be blended into the equation. Statistics from our player pages at RotoBaller were included during the compilation of data, while Pro Football Reference, PFF, Rotowire, Fantasy Points Data, NextGenStats, and Rotoviz were also used as resources in the creation of this report.

• 2025 fantasy football rankings (redraft)
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings
• 2025 NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
• Best ball fantasy football rankings
• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings

Targets

.@AsapPuka continues to impress. 📈 pic.twitter.com/XnySY6jVOd

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) October 23, 2023

Puka Nacua has accumulated a league-high 82 targets entering Week 8. He has now secured the league’s highest overall total in six of his first seven games weeks at the NFL level. He has also reclaimed the league lead in targets while averaging 11.7 per game.

What a play!

📺: @CBS pic.twitter.com/TCeCjCJ6XA

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 22, 2023

Stefon Diggs has also eclipsed an average of 11 per game (11.1) while rising to second overall with 78 targets. He has now secured double-digit totals in three consecutive matchups while accruing 39 (13 per game) during that span.

A.J. Brown’s season-high 15 targets fueled his rise to third overall with 75 through seven games. It was also the third time that Brown has captured at least 13 targets this season. Tyreek Hill’s overall total had increased to 74 after he was targeted 15 times by Tua Tagovailoa in Week 7. That tied Hill’s season-high which was established during the Dolphins’ season opener.

Ja’Marr Chase‘s 73 targets had vaulted him into the league lead from Weeks 1-6 before the Bengals entered their bye week. That included the league-high 32 (16 per game) that he had stockpiled in Weeks 5-6. He has also secured a 32.7% target share and is a strong candidate to eventually regain the league lead.

Davante Adams has now collected 71 targets, including the 12 that he captured in Week 7. That was the third time that he has accumulated 12+ this season even though he averaged just 4.5 per game in Weeks 5-6. Amon-Ra St. Brown has now secured 68 targets, with exactly half of his season total being accumulated in Weeks 6-7 (34/17 per game). He has also established new career highs in two consecutive weeks, including the league-best 19 that he stockpiled in Week 7.

Chris Olave also attended a new season high in Week 7 when he accrued 15 from Derek Carr. That expanded his overall total to 68 entering Week 8. Olave has also eclipsed 10+ during five of his seven matchups this season.

MICHAEL PITTMAN 75 YARD TOUCHDOWN pic.twitter.com/eK76mdT1Ai

— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) October 22, 2023

Michael Pittman Jr. has collected 65 targets, including 11+ in four of his seven contests. He has also been limited to just five targets twice this season, including the Colts’ Week 7 matchup with Cleveland.

Keenan Allen has now captured 20 targets since the Chargers returned from their Week 5 bye. That includes the nine that he attained in Week 7 which expanded his overall total to 64. Marquise Brown completes the list of 11 receivers who have been targeted at least 60 times. His streak of three consecutive games with at least 10+ targets came to a conclusion in Week 7. However, he has secured a 26.9% share entering Week 8.

Adam Thielen’s season total of 59 targets was sustained during Carolina’s bye week. That total had propelled the 33-year-old Thielen to sixth overall entering Week 7. He was also second among all wide receivers with 48 targets 12.0 per game from Weeks 3-6.

Jakobi Meyers has now captured 56 targets entering Week 8 while securing at least 10 during four of his six matchups this season. Meyers only eclipsed 10 targets eight times during his four seasons with New England (2019-2022). His current average of 9.3 targets per game also exceeds his previous high of 7.4 (2021).

Garrett Wilson is ABSURD 🤧 pic.twitter.com/BiVXRJLAEL

— PFF (@PFF) October 15, 2023

Garrett Wilson has already accumulated 55 targets as he returns from the Jets bye week. That includes the 33 that Wilson captured from Weeks 4- 6 (11.0 per game) which was the fourth-highest total among all wide receivers. Christian Kirk has also accrued 55 targets including 12+ in two different matchups. Kirk has also failed to exceed six targets during each of his last two games.

30-year-old Michael Thomas has now captured 54 targets, including 7+ during six of his seven matchups. He has also attained nine targets twice. Thomas and the Saints’ passing attack will be examined further in the Five Things I Noticed section.

Rookie WRs since 1970 with 50+ scrimmage yards in each of their first 7 games:

- Ja’Marr Chase
- Zay Flowers 👀

End of list.

(📊 via @NateNFL)

pic.twitter.com/CLiJAMFiM2

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) October 23, 2023

Rookie Zay Flowers has also captured 54 targets, including 10+ during three of his seven matchups. His overall total is also second among all rookie receivers behind Puka Nacua, while Flowers also leads Baltimore's wide receivers with a 27.4% target share.

Nine different wide receivers are averaging at least 10 targets per game entering Week 8 - Ja’Marr Chase (12.2), Puka Nacua (11.7), Amon-Ra St. Brown (11.3), Stefon Diggs (11.1), A.J. Brown (10.7), Keenan Allen (10.7), Tyreek Hill (10.6), Justin Jefferson (10.6), and Davante Adams, who is averaging 10.1 targets per game.

Target Risers And Fallers

10 different wide receivers accumulated at least 10 targets during their matchups in Week 7. The highest weekly total was secured by Amon-Ra St. Brown, who established a career-high of 15 in Week 6, then surpassed that number by collecting 19 from Jared Goff in Week 7. That also launched him to the largest total during that two-week span (34/17 per game).

Five straight games with 125+ receiving yards for A.J. Brown. 💪 #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/XVrj7tbwXH

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) October 23, 2023

A.J. Brown was one of three different receivers who captured 15 targets in Week 7, which established a new season-high. He has now reached double digits in four of his seven matchups and has eclipsed 13+ twice during his last four contests. That tied him with Tyreek Hill, who accrued 15 for the second time this season. Hill has also collected at least nine targets during six of his seven contests and has captured 10+ in two consecutive outings.

Chris Olave has also attained double-digit totals during his last two matchups, after accruing 15 targets in Week 7. He has accumulated at least 10 targets five times this season, which has already exceeded the number of times that he accomplished it during  2022 (four). Puka Nacua has already collected at least 10 targets in five games this season although the 12 that he captured in Week 7 represented his highest weekly total since Week 2.

Stefon Diggs has now accumulated at least 12 targets in four of his seven contests this season, after reaching that total in Week 7. Diggs is also averaging 11.6 per game since Week 3. Chris Godwin also captured 12 targets in Week 7 which established a new season high. He has now secured 11+ in two of his last three outings.

It was logical to expect Davante Adams to attain a favorable target total in Week 7 after he had accumulated only nine in Weeks 5-6 combined. His 12 targets were collected one week after he was only targeted five times. That launched his weekly increase of +7.

Jahan Dotson was only targeted once during Washington’s Week 7 matchup at Atlanta, which established a season-low. The second-year receiver collected eight targets from Sam Howell in Week 8 which was his second-highest weekly total of the year. It also fueled his week-to-week rise of +7.

A.J. Brown has attained at least nine targets during five of his matchups this season, including Weeks 6 and 7. The 15 targets that he accumulated in Week 7 were secured just one week after he was been targeted nine times, which ignited his weekly increase of +6. Jakobi Meyers’ 13 targets were accrued one week after he had collected seven targets  - which was his second-lowest total of the season. That resulted in a weekly increase of +6.

.@espn_jordan. TO. THE. HOUSE.

📺: @ESPNNFL pic.twitter.com/MXcbsXdSoL

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 24, 2023

Jordan Addison secured the first double-digit target total of his career when he captured 10 targets from Kirk Cousins in Week 7. He has now averaged 8.0 per game since Week 5. Michael Pittman Jr. established a new season high when he captured 14 targets in Week 6. He was limited to just five targets for the second time this season when the Colts hosted Cleveland in Week 7. That resulted in a week-to-week decline of -9.

Wan'Dale Robinson was targeted eight times in Week 6 which was the second-highest total in 10 career games. He was only targeted twice in Week 7 which diminished his weekly total by -6. DeVonta Smith captured a season-high 11 targets in Week 6. However, he was limited to five targets for the fourth time this season in Week 7. That launched his week-to-week decline of -6.

Air Yards 

A.J. Brown now leads all wide receivers with 952 air yards entering Week 8. Stefon Diggs is second overall (916), followed by Chris Olave (881), Tyreek Hill (851), Marquise Brown (756), Amari Cooper (745), Puka Nacua 742, and Davante Adams who has accrued 716 air yards. George Pickens is next (626), followed by DeVonta Smith (625), DeAndre Hopkins (618), and Calvin Ridley, who has collected 612 air yards.

Brandon Aiyuk leads the league in air yards share (53.7%), followed by A.J. Brown (48.7%), Tyreek Hill (48.3%), George Pickens (46.8%), Stefon Diggs (46.1%), and D.J. Moore who has secured an air yards share of 45.7%. Garrett Wilson is next (45.4%), followed by Amari Cooper (43.4%), Marquise Brown (42%), and DeAndre Hopkins with an air yards share of 41.7%.

Stefon Diggs led all wide receivers with 216 air yards in Week 8. Jalin Hyatt was second overall (160), followed by Jameson Williams (143), Jakobi Meyers (136), Chris Olave (133), A.J. Brown (131), Amari Cooper (126) George Pickens (120), Terry McLaurin (111), and Puka Nacua, who accumulated 110 air yards in Week 8.

A. J. Brown led all wide receivers with an air yards share of 72.8% in Week 8. George Pickens was second (63.2%), followed by Stefon Diggs (58.2%), Jalin Hyatt (55.4%), D.J. Moore (54.4%), Puka Nacua (51.4), Tyler Scott (49.1%), Amari Cooper (47.9%) Josh Downs (44.2%), and Jakobi Meyers, who attained an air yards share of 43.6%.

Routes Run

Michael Pittman has run 292 routes entering Week 8, which is the largest total among all wide receivers. Jahan Dotson is second overall (280), followed by Dotson‘s teammate Terry McLaurin (274), Josh Downs (271), Alec Pierce (263), Zay Flowers (257), and D.J. Moore (249).

DeVonta Smith is next (248), followed by two receivers who have accumulated 246 routes - Christian Kirk, and Chris Olave. Marquise Brown is next (245), followed by Stefon Diggs (244), Van Jefferson (242), and two receivers who have run 236 routes - Ja’Marr, Chase, and Calvin Ridley.

Chris Olave led all wide receivers with 59 routes in Week 7. Amon-Ra St. Brown was second (53), followed by Michael Thomas (52), Stefon Diggs (50), Rashid Shaheed (48), Terry McLaurin (45), Jahan Dotson (44), and Gabe Davis (42). Jakobi Meyers was next (41), followed by Josh Reynolds (39), Michael Pittman (38), and Chris Godwin, who accumulated 38 routes in Week 7.

Targets Per Route Run

Tyreek Hill has been targeted on 40.4% of his routes which leads all wide receivers from Weeks 1-7. Brandon Aiyuk is now second overall (39.1%), followed by Puka Nacua (36.9%), Davante Adams (35%), A.J. Brown (33.2%), Mike Evans (32.2%), Stefon Diggs (32%), and Keenan Allen, who has been targeted on 31.8% of his routes.

Jakobi Meyers is next (31.5%), followed by Ja’Marr Chase (30.9%), Cooper Kupp (30.8%), Tee Higgins (30.8%), and two receivers have been targeted on 30.2% of their routes - Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Kadarius Toney.

Tyreek Hill was targeted on 50% of his routes in Week 7 which was the highest percentage among all wide receivers. A. J. Brown was second (44.1%), followed by Puka Nacua (38.7%), Jaylen Waddle (37.5%), Davante Adams (36.4%), and Amon-Ra St. Brown (35.8%). Odell Beckham was next (31.8%), followed by Jakobi Meyers (31.7%), and Chris Godwin, who was targeted on 31.6% of his routes during Tampa Bay’s matchup with Atlanta in Week 7.

Yards Per Route Run 

Tyreek Hill is averaging 4.93 yards per route run which leads all wide receivers entering Week 8. Brandon Aiyuk is second (4.65), followed by A.J. Brown (4.58), Puka Nacua (3.39), Nico Collins (3.32), Marvin Mims (3.32), and Cooper Kupp (3.24).

Mike Evans is averaging 3.08 yards per route run, followed by George Pickens (2.99), Keenan Allen (2.86), CeeDee Lamb (2.86), Stefon Diggs (2.78), and Davante Adams, who is averaging 2.6 yards per route run.

Puka Nacua led all wide receivers with an average of 4.97 yards per route run in Week 7. Josh Downs was second overall (4.17), followed by A.J. Brown (4.03), Jaylen Waddle (3.94), Joshua Palmer (3.69), George Pickens (3.69), Jaylin Hyatt (3.41), Diontae Johnson (3.29), and Christian Kirk, who averaged 3.21 yards per route run in Week 7.

Red Zone Targets  

Davante Adams has collected two red zone targets in three consecutive outings, which has expanded his league-leading total to 16 entering Week 8. Garrett Wilson is second overall (12), followed by three receivers who have been targeted 11 times – Ja’Marr Chase, Jakobi Meyers, and Drake London. Four receivers have accumulated 10 targets inside the 20 - Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman., Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed.

Teammates Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers have both garnered a league-high nine targets inside the 10. Keenan Allen has been targeted seven times, while five receivers have collected six targets inside the 10 – Tyreek Hill, Jordan Addison. Jaylen Waddle, Drake London, and Jayden Reed.

Waddle has also captured five targets inside the 5-yard line, which leads all wide receivers. His teammate Tyreek Hill has been targeted four times while Jayden Reed and Ja’Marr Chase are among the seven receivers who have accumulated three targets inside the 5.

Terry McLaurin accumulated four red zone targets during Washington’s Week 7 matchup with the Giants, which led all receivers. Five receives were targeted three times – Jordan Addison, Drake London, Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Curtis Samuel.

Snaps

DeVonta Smith leads all wide receivers with 484 snaps entering Week 8. Michael Pittman Jr. is second overall (462), followed by A.J. Brown (453), Alec Pierce (434), Puka Nacua (417), D.J. Moore (406), and Chris Olave (400). Drake London has accumulated 399 snaps, followed by Marquise Brown (393), Michael Thomas (392), K.J. Osborn (391), and Zay Flowers (390).

Michael Pittman Jr. leads the position with a 98.3% snap share from Weeks 1-7. Cooper Kupp is next (98.2%), followed by DeVonta Smith (97.6%), Ja’Marr Chase (95.1%), Alec Pierce (92.3%), and D.J. Moore (92.3%). A.J. Brown is next (91.3%), followed by Puka Nacua (91.1%), K.J. Osborn (90.3%), Garrett Wilson (90.3%), Keenan Allen (89.8%), and Amon-Ra St. Brown (89.6%).     

Michael Thomas accumulated 73 snaps in Week 7 which was the most among all wide receivers. his teammate Chris Olave was second (71), followed by Amon-Ra St. Brown (70), and Alec Pierce (67). DeVonta Smith and Michael Pittman Jr. accrued 65 snaps, followed by Gabe Davis (63), Amari Cooper (63), Cooper Kupp (62), Rashid Shaheed (62), K.J. Osborn (61), D.J. Moore (61), and Joshua Palmer (60).

Cooper Kupp and Alec Pierce played on 100% of their teams’ offensive snaps during their Week 7 matchups. Joshua Palmer attained a 98.4% snap share, followed by Brandon Aiyuk (98.1%), Amon-Ra St. Brown (97,2%), Michael Pittman Jr.  (97.0%), DeVonta Smith (95,6%), and Gabe Davis (95.5%). Kendrick Bourne was next (94,6%), followed by Puka Nacua (93.6%), and Keenan Allen (93.4%).

Five Things I Noticed

1. The four-year contract that was signed by Derek Carr in March fueled optimism that Carr’s arrival would revitalize an aerial attack that had been guided by Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Trevor Siemian, and Taysom Hill in 2021-2022, following the retirement of Drew Brees.

However, the Saints have entered their bye week with a passing attack that has struggled throughout their first seven games. New Orleans ranks 11th in pass play percentage (59.7%), and 12th in red zone scoring attempts per game (3.4). However, the Saints also rank just 28th in red zone scoring percentage (37.5%), while Carr is tied for 32nd in red zone passing percentage (40%).

Derek Carr and the Saints ran four plays deep in the red zone where a goal line fade looked like the first read.

First play: 🔒, tipped, 🙅‍♂️

Second: 🔒, stares at 2nd read, tipped 🙅‍♂️

Third: Never-in-history ball (h/t @theqbschool) / throwaway

Last: Near INT 🙅‍♂️ 0.0% chance 🫠🫠 pic.twitter.com/dhglkIkTeJ

— Matt Fitzgerald (@MattFitz_gerald) October 20, 2023

Carr has completed 163 of his 255 attempts, resulting in a 63.9% completion percentage. His 6.3 yards per attempt is the lowest since his 2014 rookie season, as is his 6.0 air yards per attempt. His touchdown to interception ratio is just 6:4, while his 2.4% touchdown percentage represents a career low.

What a catch from Chris Olave!
pic.twitter.com/qXhBpTxUbn

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) October 15, 2023

Chris Olave is averaging 13.2 points per game, which places him 24th overall. He has played on 400 of the Saints’ offensive snaps (81% share) which is the league’s seventh-highest total. He is also seventh with a team-high 68 targets (9.7 per game/25.1% share) and is also 12th in receptions 39 (5.6 per game while collecting 7+ in four different outings.

Olave is also 18th in receiving yards (471/67.3 per game), after eclipsing 100+ yards during two of his first three outings and averaging 100.7 yards per game from Weeks 1-3. His average has declined to 42.3 per game since Week 4, while he has failed to surpass 57 yards during three of his last four games. Olave is third overall with 881 air yards, 14th in air yards share (39.7%). has been targeted on 27.6% of his routes, and is averaging 1.91 yards per route run.

The 30-year-old Michael Thomas has been generating numbers that are second on the team behind Olave in the most categories. Thomas is now 10th overall with 392 snaps (79.4% share) and has collected 54 targets (7.7 per game/22.3% share), including 7+ in five of his six matchups.

Michael Thomas IS BACK 🗣️

Tie game 👀 pic.twitter.com/rdnYVEWJbh

— PFF (@PFF) October 20, 2023

Thomas has also accrued 34 receptions (4.9 per game), 371 receiving yards (371/53 per game), 529 air yards, and attained a 23.8% air yards share. He has also been targeted on 23.8% of his routes and has averaged 1.63 yards per route run. Shaheed has played on 312 snaps while accumulating 35 targets (5.0 per game/13.3% share), 20 receptions (2.9 per game), and 326 yards (46.6 per game). He is second on the Saints in air yards (546), and air yards share (24.6%). He has also been targeted on 16.8% of his 34 routes while averaging 1.57 yards per route run.

It should be noted that Alvin Kamara has led the Saints in targets (39/9.8 per game/24.1% share) since he resurfaced from suspension in Week 4. He has also accumulated a team-high 35 receptions which more than doubles the 17 that have been accrued by Olave. If Carr continues to target Kamara repeatedly with shorter throws it will prevent Olave from operating as anything beyond a WR2 for managers. That scenario will also limit Thomas to WR3 output.

2. It was not surprising that Cooper Kupp soared among the league leaders in multiple categories immediately after resurfacing from his hamstring injury. However, even though the results that he assembled in Weeks 5-6 were impressive, Kupp's presence did not preclude Puka Nacua from delivering exceptional numbers during the Rams' Week 7 matchup with Pittsburgh. 

329 days in the making.

Welcome back, @CooperKupp! 🫡 pic.twitter.com/MvjafDaZMO

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) October 8, 2023

Kupp had vaulted to fourth overall in targets from Weeks 5-6 (21/10.5 per game/38.9% share) and was also fourth with 15 receptions (7.5 per game). He also rose to fourth in receiving yards (266/133 per game), third in yards per route run (4.43), sixth in air yards (241), and seventh in targets per route run (35%).

Nacua had averaged 23.9 points per game in four games prior to Kupp’s return. He had also captured a league-high 52 targets (13 per game/32.5% share) and was pacing all wide receivers in targets per route run (40.9%), and receptions (39/9.8 per game). Nucua was also second in receiving yards (501/125.3 per game), fourth in yards per route run (3.94), and seventh in air yards (464) while he was operating as the Rams’ WR1.

During Nacua’s first two games following Kupp’s return, his point-per-game average dropped to 13.4. His per-game averages in targets (9.0), and receptions (5.5), both decreased, while his yards per game average plunged to 48.5. His target share declined to 31.5%, while he was targeted on 28.1% of his routes while averaging 1.52 yards per route run.

Tutu Atwell had also vaulted to 12th in targets (35/8.8 per game/21.9% share) from Weeks 1-4, while also rising to ninth in snaps (241), and air yards (400). Atwell was also 16th in reception (22/5.5 per game), and 18th in receiving yards (270/67.5 per game) before Kupp resurfaced in Week 5. Atwell averaged just 3.0 targets, 1.5 receptions, and 19.5 yards per game in Weeks 5-6. He accumulated 75 air yards, was targeted on 10.5% of his routes, and averaged 0.68 yards per route run.

However, the script was altered in Week 7 as Kupp registered season lows in points per game (6.9), targets (seven), receptions (two), and receiving yards (29). He was also limited to his lowest numbers of the season in air yards (51), targets per route run (22.6%), and yards per route run (0.96)

I mean this is just absurd from Puka Nacua pic.twitter.com/2Mhj0hhHhL

— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) October 22, 2023

Nacua led the Rams in each of those categories while vaulting to fifth overall in points per game (23.4). He also averaged a league-high 4.97 yards per route run, finished third among all wide receivers in targets per route run (38.7%), was 10th in air yards (110), and rose to sixth with an air yards share of 51.4%.

Puka Nacua truly is the second coming of Robert Woods. Dangerous both inside/outside, big time football IQ, great after the catch.

He's a consistent mismatch for opposing defenses.pic.twitter.com/ocp7v6dFUu

— Luca Sartirana (@SartiranaLuca) October 22, 2023

Nacua also tied for sixth with 12 targets, vaulted to fourth with eight receptions, and generated a league-best 154 receiving yards. Atwell was limited to two targets, a 31-yard reception, and 40 air yards. He was targeted on 9.5% of his 21 routes and averaged 1.48 yards per route run.

Despite the statistical decline in Week 7, Kupp should assemble numbers that sustain his place among the league's elite receivers during the upcoming weeks. Anyone who has Nacua contained on their rosters has received additional evidence that he can deliver WR1 production throughout his rookie season.

 3. While Nacua continues to lead members of his rookie class in a plethora of receiving categories, Zay Flowers has also performed proficiently while operating as Baltimore’s WR1 and delivering WR2 production to fantasy managers. Several other newcomers have assembled encouraging numbers, including Jordan Addison, who delivered a breakout performance in Week 7 (10 targets/7 receptions/123 yards/2 touchdowns).

Josh Downs has been steadily evolving into a dependable weekly starting option for both Indianapolis and anyone who has him contained on the rosters. The Colts’ third-round selection (79th overall) added to what has already been a promising season by delivering a highly productive outing in Week 7 when the Colts hosted Cleveland.

59 yard stroll for @JoshDowns.

📺 CBS

pic.twitter.com/k07B7aSB5F

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) October 22, 2023

Downs finished fourth among all wide receivers with an average of 23.5 points in Week 7. He also led Indianapolis in targets (six), for the second time this season, while pacing the team in receptions (five). He also finished second overall with three receptions of 20+ yards and established a new season high in receiving yards (125). Downs also finished second overall in yards per route run (4.17), and fourth in routes run (125). He also eclipsed his previous season bests in yards per target (20.8), yards per reception (25.0), yards before catch (60), and yards after catch (65), while also generating a 59-yard touchdown.

Most receiving yards by a 3rd round rookie WR through 7 weeks over the last decade

1. Terry McLaurin (2019) - 419
2. Josh Downs (2023) - 401
3. Michael Wilson (2023) - 339
4. Tank Dell (2023) - 324
5. Cooper Kupp (2017) - 316
6. Tyler Lockett (2015) - 217
7. Diontae Johnson…

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) October 23, 2023

Downs is fourth among all wide receivers in routes run (271) since the season opener. He has also captured 47 targets (6.7 per game/20.1% share) and is tied for 21st overall with 35 targets (7.0 per game) since Week 3. Downs is also tied for 14th overall with 26 receptions (5.2 per game) and is 17th in receiving yards (334/66.8 per game) during his last five outings.

His yardage total received a significant boost when he assembled the aforementioned 125 yards against the Browns in Week 7. He is also third among all rookies in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and air yards from Weeks 1-7, and is second to Nacua in yards after catch.

Downs has been operating from the slot on 79.5% of his 271 routes since Week 1, has been targeted on 17.3% of those routes, and is averaging 1.48 yards per route run. He also accumulated 353 air yards, while securing a 20.5% air yards share, and generating 186 yards after catch. Downs’ numbers also place him second on the Colts behind Michael Pittman Jr. in nearly all receiving categories.

Indianapolis WRs in Gardner Minshew's 3 starts...

Josh Downs
+ 17.8 FPG (~WR13)
+ 16.0 XFP/G (~WR15)

Michael Pittman
+ 18.6 FPG (~WR12)
+ 15.6 XFP/G (~WR16)

Downs faced 2 of the top-3 toughest slot defenses over this stretch. Pittman's SOS was perfectly neutral.

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 23, 2023

Downs' proficient Week 7 outing becomes even more promising since it was achieved with Gardner Minshew under center. Downs has now accumulated 26 targets (8.7 per game), 18 receptions (6.0 per game), and 243 receiving yards (81 per game) during Minshew’s three starts this season (Weeks 3/6/7), Downs has also produced both of his touchdowns during those matchups. He is now functioning as a high-end WR4 who is at the periphery of weekly WR3 status for fantasy managers. He should also continue his development as the season progresses while operating as a reliable weekly starter.

4. The improvement of Houston’s offense has been a favorable development for fantasy managers who have invested in C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell. All three players have emerged as tangible valuable roster assets while easily eclipsing offseason expectations.

The Texans ranked 31st in total offense during 2022 (283.5 yards per game) while finishing 25th in passing (196.7 per game), and tying for 30th in scoring (17.0 per game). However, the Texans have risen to 12th in total offense under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik (347.3 per game). Houston has also improved to 14th in scoring (22.5 per game), while the aerial attack has vaulted to fifth (258.5 yards per game).

Houston’s decision to procure Stroud with the second overall pick during last April’s NFL Draft has already paid dividends as he has performed more effectively than any other quarterback from the 2023 rookie class. Stroud was the 27th quarterback to be selected during draft season (ADP 184). However, he is 15th among all signal callers with an average of 17.2 points per game,  while emerging as a legitimate candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

#Texans rookie CJ Stroud gets his first career touchdown pass to Nico Collins! pic.twitter.com/ystaIkdfqD

— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) September 17, 2023

Stroud is also ninth in attempts per game and has soared to fourth with an average of 276.7 yards per game. He has also constructed a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 9:1 while distributing 70 targets to Collins and Dell - who have been Houston’s most productive wide receivers.

Nico Collins Touchdown, 7-0 Texans pic.twitter.com/zLTY2UvcRK

— Ari Alexander (@AriA1exander) October 1, 2023

Collins had averaged 5.3 targets, 2.9 receptions, 38.6 yards, and 7.9 points per game during his first two seasons. He was also attainable until Round 12 during the draft season (133/WR51). However, he is 13th among all wide receivers with an average of 17 points per game (PPR). Collins has also assembled a team-high 547 receiving yards (91.2 per game) which places him 10th overall.

Nico Collins is tied with Deebo Samuel for the most yards after the catch per reception above expectation this season (Next-Gen Stats) pic.twitter.com/H34gZhz8AX

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 17, 2023

Collins leads all receivers in yards per target (13.0), and yards per reception (18.9). He is also fifth in yards per route run (3.32), sixth in receptions of 20+ yards (13), and is pacing Houston in receptions (29/4.8 per game) air yards (483), air yards share (30.4%), and yards after catch (245).  Collins has entered WR2 territory and should sustain that level of output to fantasy managers moving forward.

Dell was the ninth wide receiver to be selected during the NFL Draft, and his ADP was located in Round 21 during the draft season. However, he has also surpassed expectations while ascending to 29th overall with an average of 12.9 points per game.

CJ Stroud finds a WIDE OPEN Tank Dell for a 68 YARD TOUCHDOWN 🎯pic.twitter.com/sEgDEnNtdw

— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) September 24, 2023

He is third among Houston’s wide receivers in snaps (199), routes (129), and targets (28/ 3.8 per game). Dell is also second on the Texans in air yards (374), and air yards share (26.8%). He has been targeted on 21.7% of his routes while averaging 2.51 yards per route run. He can operate as a WR3/flex for fantasy managers moving forward.

Robert Woods averaged 9.5 targets, 6.0 receptions, and 65.5 yards per game from Weeks 1-2. He has averaged 6.0 targets per game since Week 4, but just 2.5 receptions, and 21 yards per game during that span. Woods should only be deployed as a WR4/WR5  if bye weeks and injuries have depleted your options.

5. Two receivers from the AFC West are positioned to operate as dependable weekly starters for fantasy managers during their remaining matchups, even though neither player was selected before Round 12 during draft season. Jakobi Meyers was the 53rd wide receiver to be chosen (ADP 144) after he signed a three-year contract with Las Vegas in March. 

Meyers captured 10 targets during the Raiders’ season opener before being sidelined in concussion protocol during the team's matchup in Week 2. He has now secured a double-digit target total in three additional contests since his return. Meyers is now 13th among all wide receivers for 56 targets (9.3 per game) while performing proficiently within a deficient Las Vegas offense that has been impacted by substandard quarterback play.

He has assembled 37 receptions while collecting at least seven in four different contests, and securing a career-high average of 6.2 per game. Meyers’ average of 64.2 yards per game has also eclipsed his previous career high, while he has also vaulted to third among all wide receivers with five touchdowns - after accumulating a total of eight during his four seasons in New England.

JAKOBI MEYERS REVENGE GAME 🔥pic.twitter.com/wCac7wHQxM

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 15, 2023

Meyers has also accumulated 564 air yards while attaining a career-high  36.2% air yards share. He has also surpassed his previous career bests in targets per route run (31.5%), and yards per route run (2.16). Meyers has also soared to 12th with an average of 17.6 points per game.

TOUCHDOWN MEYERS!!!#LVvsCHI | 📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/GIrjLdCOPq

— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) October 22, 2023

He is positioned to assemble career-best numbers for the remainder of the season while joining Davante Adams as the two most critical receiving weapons within the Las Vegas aerial attack.

Joshua Palmer was the 83rd receiver to be selected in deep leagues, as his ADP of 265 placed him in the 23rd round. However, Palmer has ascended into an expanded role due to the season-ending torn ACL that was sustained by Mike Williams in Week 3 . Palmer is seventh among all wide receivers with a 93.1% snap share since Week 4. He has also collected 7+ targets during each of his last four matchups while securing a 24.2% target share.

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