Why Zero RB Won't Work In 2020 (and Beyond!)

Chris Gregory analyzes the trendy Zero RB fantasy football strategy and explains why it's not an optimal approach to 2020 drafts based on ADP.

In the 1970s, you didn't have to go far to find a funky cool cat cutting up the dance floor in a polyester leisure suit while his pet rock named Morton rested comfortably in his pocket. By the 1980s, people had realized things like the pet rock, and leisure suits were lame. Instead, it was cool to wear parachute pants, perm your hair, and brag about how you completed an entire side of your Rubik's Cube. Then the '90s hit, and a wave of grunge draped America's youth in flannel shirts and passive-aggressive attitudes. And on and on fads like this go. Some of them survive long enough to become real thorns in your side (see Facebook), while most fade so fast you can barely remember them five years later (see MySpace).

If you're looking for the biggest fantasy football-specific fad, however, you need to look no further than the strategy known as 'Zero RB.' This strategy is that in which fantasy managers avoid drafting running backs in the first few rounds. Instead, Zero RB truthers use their early draft picks on a heavy dose of wide receivers (WR), with the occasional tight end (TE) or quarterback (QB) thrown in for measure. The idea behind the strategy is that there is allegedly less volatility in elite WRs, QBs, and TEs than there is at the RB position. So, you should build a strong base with these safer positions before taking a bunch of flyers on the already risk RB position later in your draft.

Sounds like a solid strategy, right? I mean, there are plenty of positions in fantasy, so why shouldn't you gobble up the best players at each of them while your friends "waste" their early picks on RBs? The list of reasons you shouldn't do this is long, so why don't we get to them?

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Elite RBs Typically Score More Points than Elite WRs

Since 2016, fantasy's top-overall WR has been outscored by an average of three RBs in PPR leagues and five RBs in standard leagues each season.

In 2016, David Johnson finished as the top-scoring fantasy running back (RB1) in both PPR and standard scoring. That season, Johnson scored 100.5 more PPR points than the WR1 in fantasy, and 119.7 more standard points than the WR1. Johnson wasn't the only RB to outscore the WR1 in 2016, either. Three total RBs outscored fantasy's best WR that season.

In 2017, the story was much the same. Fantasy's RB1 (Todd Gurley) outscored fantasy's WR1 by 73 PPR points and 105.5 standard points that season. Again, three different RBs ended up scoring more PPR points than the WR1 that year, and six RBs outscored the WR1 in standard scoring.

In 2018, the trend continued. Four different RBs outscored fantasy's WR1 in PPR leagues, and five RBs outscored the WR1 in standard scoring.

Last year, Michael Thomas did his best to end this trend by putting up a historically significant fantasy season, totaling a whopping 374.6 PPR points. He was terrific, and a joy to have on your team… and he was still outscored by fantasy's top overall RB (Christian McCaffrey) by 96.6 PPR points and 129.6 standard points.

That's a convincing fantasy beat down, considering how prolific Thomas was in 2019.

Last year's WR2 (Chris Godwin) didn't fare much better than Michael Thomas did when compared to RB competition. Six different RBs scored more PPR points than Godwin did last year, and an incredible 11 RBs outscored him in standard scoring.

If the past four years are any indication, the top WRs aren't going to outscore the top RBs in 2020, no matter your league's settings.

Wide Receiver is So Deep, You Can Wait

Last season, there were 25 WRs who scored at least 200 PPR points. That group did not include any of the following talents on it:

• Tyreek Hill
• DK Metcalf
• Terry McLaurin
• Deebo Samuel
• T.Y. Hilton
• A.J. Green
• JuJu Smith-Schuster
• Adam Thielen
• Brandin Cooks
• Calvin Ridley

Now consider that each of the following rookies could realistically average 12 or more PPR points per game this season, under the right circumstances…

• CeeDee Lamb
• Jerry Jeudy
• Henry Ruggs III
• Jalen Reagor
• Justin Jefferson
• Brandon Aiyuk
• Tee Higgins
• Michael Pittman, Jr.
• Bryan Edwards

With this list of impact rookies, a promising group of 2020 sleepers (Preston Williams, Darius Slayton, etc.), and the 25 players who scored 200+ points last season, this year's fantasy WR crop is deep. By our count, at least 45 WRs have the chance to put up at least 180-200 PPR points this season, if all goes well.

That's great depth when you consider only 23 RBs topped 180 PPR points last season.

Running Back is Shallow, You Can't Wait

While the WR position has been incredibly deep for the past four years and looks to be even deeper in 2020, the RB pool has been decidedly top-heavy in recent seasons.

To illustrate just how shallow the RB position is when compared to WRs, let us begin by dividing them into smaller groups. For our purposes, we will divide the WR and RB positions into the following tiers:

• Tier 1- The top-overall scoring WR or RB in PPR scoring in any given season;
• Tier 2- The second through fifth-highest scoring WRs or RBs;
• Tier 3- The sixth through tenth highest scoring WRs and RBs
• Tier 4- The 11^th through 20^th highest scoring WRs and RBs;
• Tier 5- The 21^st through 30^th highest scoring WRs and RBs; and
• Tier 6- The 31^st through 40^th highest scoring WRs and RBs.

Now that we have these tiers established, we can compare the RB and WR positions in fantasy more easily. In the following chart, you will see the average PPR production for players in each of these tiers over the past four seasons.…

As you can see, Tier 1 RBs have handily outscored Tier 1 WRs over the past four seasons, and Tier 2 RBs have done the same against Tier 2 WRs. As you can also see, after Tier 3, that trend does a 180º. WRs routinely dominate their RB peers in total points and consistency, once we get to Tier 4 and beyond.

More important than how RBs and WRs compare to each other, however, is how they compare to those at their own position.

Over the past four seasons, Tier 2 RBs have scored 26% more fantasy points than Tier 3 RBs have. Meanwhile, Tier 2 WRs have scored only 12% more points than Tier 3 WRs. Overall, a fantasy manager will net an average of 34.5 PPR points per season more if they draft a Tier 2 RB and a Tier 3 WR than they will if they draft a Tier 3 RB and a Tier 2 WR.

Going a bit lower on the chart, we see that Tier 3 RBs score 25% more PPR points than Tier 4 RBs. Meanwhile, Tier 3 WRs tend to score only 15% more points than Tier 4 WRs. In other words, you stand to gain 19.6 PPR points per season if you draft a Tier 3 RB and a Tier 4 WR, instead of a Tier 4 RB and a Tier 3 WR.

This year's fantasy RB group looks to be even more top-heavy than in years past, with serious questions swirling around established fantasy starters such as Leonard Fournette, Melvin Gordon, James Conner, Le' Veon Bell, and Todd Gurley. To make things worse, most of this year's promising rookie RB class and several established stars (Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Mark Ingram, etc.) are expected to split a significant share of their touches this year. With half of this year's top-20 RBs burdened with questions about their workload, age, health, or ability level, the value of nailing a top-10 talent at the position early in your draft is more important than ever. You really cannot afford to risk waiting on RB in 2020.

Elite RBs Aren't As Hard To Identify As You Think

Six of last year's top-10 scoring RBs were selected within the first 20 picks of fantasy drafts, and nine of the top-10 were taken with the first 30 picks. By pick #46, 11 of the 12 top-scoring RBs were taken, and all 12 were gone by pick #63. Meanwhile, only three of the top-10 scoring WRs in PPR were selected in the first two rounds, and half of them were chosen after pick #40.

This success rate has stayed consistent over the past four seasons, too.

Since 2016, 60% of all elite (top-10 scoring) RBs have been selected within the first 20 picks of fantasy drafts. That's true in both standard and PPR scoring. During those same four years, only 37% of elite WRs were drafted within the first 20 picks of PPR drafts, and only 47% of elite fantasy WRs went that high in Non-PPR drafts.

As you can see, fantasy players have more trouble getting elite value out of early-round WRs than they do elite RBs.

Quarterbacks Do Not Help the Zero RB Argument

Quarterbacks should never go in the first four rounds of fantasy drafts. There. Done. Happy?

No? Sigh…. Fine, we will dive in a bit further, then.

Only three QBs have topped 400+ fantasy points, and only five have finished with more than 360 fantasy points in a season, since 2012. No QB has topped 400-points more than once during this time, and never has it been done by multiple QBs in a season.

Those facts pour serious cold water on the idea that you should pass on an RB and draft Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes at their current ADP (19^th and 23^rd overall, respectively). A more reasonable expectation for Mahomes and Jackson in 2020 is probably something closer to 350 or 360 fantasy points.

Consider that the top-overall QB in fantasy has averaged 363.35 fantasy points in the past nine seasons, where the 400-point barrier wasn't broken.  Also, consider that the second-overall QB (QB2) in fantasy has averaged 342.5 points over the past eight seasons. Meanwhile, the QB10 over the past eight years has averaged 273.5 points per season.

Thus, drafting Mahomes at 19^th overall instead of taking Deshaun Watson at pick #69 will likely net you a mere 30-points at the very deep QB position. Meanwhile, taking Jackson at pick #23 instead of Josh Allen with the 102^nd pick will probably earn you a 70 fantasy point gain. That's not that much, considering the cost.

You Don't Have to Go Zero RB to Get the Best TEs

There are two elite TEs worthy of a top-30 selection in 2020 drafts: George Kittle and Travis Kelce. Over the past two seasons, Kelce has averaged 96.8 PPR points per season more than the TE6 in fantasy. At the same time, Kittle has averaged 63.25 PPR points per season over the TE6. That is a significant advantage at a thin position.

While Kelce and Kittle give you a noteworthy edge over a vast majority of fantasy TEs, their PPR edge over guys like Mark Andrews and Zach Ertz (who you can get two rounds later than the Killer-Ks) is less than 50 PPR points. Additionally, what edge they may give you over the overall TE position in 2020 may be less than it has been in the past. Players like Darren Waller, Evan Engram, Mike Gesicki, Tyler Higbee, Hayden Hurst, and Hunter Henry could all come within 80 PPR points of Kelce and Kittle this year if all goes right for them.

That said, if you have to have Kittle or Kelce, they are unlikely to cost you a top-12 draft pick in non-TE premium formats. That means that you can easily draft one, or maybe even two, very good RBs before you need to pull the trigger on one of the two elite TEs in fantasy. Thus, Kittle and Kelce can be had without going all-in on the Zero RB strategy.

Closing Argument: Zero RB Put Into Practice

For one final demonstration of just how risky the Zero RB philosophy is in today's fantasy game (especially PPR), let's now recreate a practical Zero RB draft from 2019.

Below you will see two teams drafted using the 2019 ADPs from Fantasyfootballcalculator.com. Using those ADPs, we have crafted a near best-case scenario Zero RB team (Team 1), and a solid but somewhat flawed RB-Heavy team (Team 2). Comparing these two teams is enlightening…

In this example, Team 1 could not have executed the Zero RB strategy much better. They captured the top WR and the top QB in all of fantasy, both of whom had historically significant fantasy seasons, and drafted the second best TE in 2019. They also selected the RB15 and RB23, despite waiting on the position until the fifth and sixth round. This result is precisely what most Zero RB strategists are hoping for when they use this system, as Team 1 gained a weekly edge over everyone at every position except at RB.

Despite all of that, Team 1 drafted the inferior team in comparison with the RB-Heavy Team 2. Team 1 ended up being outscored by Team 2 by 68 PPR points, despite Team 2 having a distinct disadvantage at QB, WR, and TE. Had Team 1 abandoned Zero RB at any point and selected Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, or Derrick Henry at any point in time, they would have likely won this matchup handily.

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