This Year’s Fantasy Football League-Winning Tight End Is…

It's easy to point to players like Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, or Trey McBride and say they will be league-winning tight ends in 2024. The problem is that you have to pay a premium for those players, with each going as a top-50 fantasy pick. This means bypassing other potential league-winning players at similar ADP, such as De'Von Achane, Nico Collins, or DeVonta Smith.

The most valuable fantasy assets, league-winning assets, are those that are picked later in drafts. Players like Puka Nacua and Sam LaPorta were players picked after pick 75 in 2023 and turned into players who led fantasy teams to championships. That's the type of player we are looking for.

The goal of this article is to identify a tight end who has shown potential and opportunity that could combine to form a player who would be a catalyst to championships. For example, Nacua was universally undrafted and was a waiver pickup in Yahoo leagues. That led him to be on almost 20% of championship teams on the Yahoo platform.

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For tight ends, that player this year will be Evan Engram.

2024 Fantasy Football League-Winner: Evan Engram

Currently drafted at an ADP of 72.5 in half-PPR leagues, Evan Engram is the eighth tight end off the board in 2024. The misalignment of Engram's ADP and his finish in 2023 shows that drafters still don't trust that Engram has the combination of opportunity and talent to be a top tight end in 2024. A quick review of his performance in 2023 shows just how valuable he can be.

Engram's 143 targets in 2023 were 16 more than anyone else at the position and were the 14th-most all-time among tight ends. His 173.3 fantasy points in half-PPR were second-most amongst tight ends, and he scored 10.2 fantasy points per game (sixth in 2023). He scored at least nine fantasy points in eight of his 17 games.

Evan Engram had 143 targets in 2023

He was the 12th most targeted player and THE most targeted tight end

TE5 in fantasy points per game with just 4 trips to the end zone

Best value amongst the position ahead of this season at TE8 in ~7th Rd or beyondpic.twitter.com/FF8xkskrAw

— Colin McTamany (@Colin_McT) August 25, 2024

Those 17 games were also an underrated and overlooked statistic. For league-winning players, attendance is often part of the grade. Engram was one of just three tight ends in the top-15 of overall fantasy points per game amongst guys who played in all 17 contests. He has missed three total games in the last four seasons and is one of the most reliable players in the league.

However, despite all the accolades for Engram, which were well-deserved, Engram could have actually had a better year in 2023. In many ways, he got unlucky with Trevor Lawrence, and if some of that luck regresses, it can be what separates him from all other players around his draft position.

What Separates Evan Engram From The Pack In 2024?

One question must be asked about players like Travis Kelce (ADP of 25.5), Mark Andrews (48) or Sam LaPorta (29.5). Do we really think these players have another level? Kelce is going to be 35 this year and is being drafted in the second round. LaPorta just completed the best rookie tight end season in history and now has a healthy Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs competing for targets.

Based on what we saw in 2023, Engram could raise his game another level or two and compete for overall TE1. He already did it last year. Engram's metrics were elite last season, and if he can now get some growth from Trevor Lawrence, it's not hard to envision him moving up significantly. Consider his target quality from Lawrence in 2023.

Engram was first in targets, second in target share, first in routes run, and second in route participation. No improvement is needed there. However, Engram's average depth of target (aDOT) was 5.0 yards. That was 34th among tight ends. Engram's share of his team's air yards (14%) was only 14th at the position. Engram's yards per target (6.7) was 31st. He also has terrible luck with end-zone targets.

Evan Engram has just eight touchdowns on 241 targets his last two seasons with the Jaguars

He’s got two tonight on four targets 👀

📹 @Jaguarspic.twitter.com/xJqO4Hm1G8

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) August 23, 2024

With Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones gone, there are now 200 total targets from last year up for grabs. They will also be the best kind of targets, as both Jones and Ridley averaged over 9.0 yards per reception in 2023. Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis will get a healthy chunk of those targets, but they essentially play the same Z-receiver position and might cannibalize each other.

Engram must maintain his target share with arguably shakier receivers around him and improve on his drops (eight last year, most at the position) to move on to the next level. He already has elite usage that only two or three tight ends in the league can match. Trevor Lawrence will be the linchpin to Engram's success if he will just trust him down the field more.

What Is Evan Engram's Pathway To An Overall TE1 Finish?

A couple of things need to happen to players being drafted above Engram for him to be in the TE1 conversation. First, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews need to show their age and miss some games with injury. This is not unprecedented, as both missed time last year, and they are on teams with Super Bowl aspirations who will be very conservative with their stars.

Sam LaPorta simply needs to regress after a season that saw him catch 86 balls and 10 touchdowns. I certainly can see a path to 90 catches, but 10 touchdowns again? That's asking a lot. Trey McBride needs to have some of his 20% target share taken by Marvin Harrison Jr. and other receivers.

Updated Fantasy Football TE Rankings (Preseason Drafts) - Sam LaPorta, George Kittle, Evan Engram, Dallas Goedert, T.J. Hockenson, Brock Bowers, more https://t.co/0UMc2Q9wSc pic.twitter.com/6B7FSX8pBL

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) August 26, 2024

But for as elite as Engram can be, his finish in 2024 depends on Trevor Lawrence. Once thought of as a "generational" talent, Lawrence has taken just incremental steps each year. He was just 19th in catchable pass rate (74.5%) and 22nd in true passer rating. Jacksonville was third in pass rate over expectation last season, so it's not a lack of opportunity.

The talent, opportunity, and team context are in place. Now Evan Engram just needs Trevor Lawrence and offensive coordinator Press Taylor (in Jacksonville for his third season) to put him in a better position to move from a great tight end to an elite one. As I've already written for this site, I am all in on Evan Engram making another leap in 2024.

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