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Who Ya Got: Cain or Pollock?

In 2015, a pair of outfielders in their late 20s with limited track records of success broke out and became bonafide stars. Neither had posted more than 502 plate appearances in a season, yet each produced seasons that prorated to 6 or more fWAR in 2014 and attracted decent buzz in fantasy circles coming into the year. Owners who bet on their upside turned a huge profit - including yours truly, who grabbed both for less than $10 total on the way to a championship in the RotoBaller writers' league. Per ESPN's Player Rater, each finished in the top five outfielders and top 12 batters overall.

 

Pollock

A.J. Pollock followed a solid rookie year with an outstanding sophomore effort cut short by injury. In just 75 games, Pollock hit .302/.353/.498 with seven homers and 14 stolen bases while playing excellent defense in center field. A logjam in the Diamondbacks outfield, and perhaps a bit of skepticism over a 27-year-old with a relatively small major league sample, kept his price tag down in fantasy drafts. Any doubters were immediately silenced, as Pollock parlayed a sizzling start into arguably the best all-around season by any player: .315/.367/.498, 20 homers, 111 runs, 76 RBI, and 39 steals.

Pollock built on his previous success, flashing improved plate discipline along with better contact and line drive rates in his first full season. The spike in homers probably represents his ceiling, as nearly half of the balls he deposited into the stands were classified as "Just Enough" by ESPN's Home Run Tracker. Nothing else in his profile stands out as fluky or unsustainable.

 

Cain

Lorenzo Cain showed similar across the board improvement for the eventual champion Royals, hitting .307/.361/.477 with 16 homers, 101 runs, 72 RBI and 28 steals. Despite a drop over 30 points in his BABIP from the previous year, Cain actually improved to a .307 batting average. This was mostly attributable to a significant reduction in his strikeout rate. He nearly doubled his career total in homers and his previous season high in runs scored, while matching his career best stolen base total from 2014. Including his typically stellar defensive play, it's little wonder that Cain and Pollock finished the year as the best outfielders in baseball not named Mike Trout or Bryce Harper.

Given their success, it will be significantly more expensive to roster both of these players in 2016. Which one should you view as the better investment?

 

Who Ya Got?

Both should remain excellent fantasy options, but Pollock was slightly better in every major category as well as plate discipline and contact metrics. Even if he experiences some pullback in his power numbers, he should post a similar HR total to Cain. The two have eerily similar Steamer projections, with Pollock maintaining small edges in almost every category across the board. Pollock is also nearly two years younger.

There simply isn't much to separate Cain and Pollock. Beyond their similar profiles and overall numbers, both players hit near the top of the batting order for teams whose offensive totals were virtually indistinguishable from one another's. For many owners, the answer might be as simple as "whichever guy comes cheaper."

 

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