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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 16 fantasy football busts article. It's not quite Christmas yet, but it may as well be for fantasy football fans.
The fantasy football semifinals feature games spread across four days. Don't fret if you fall behind early. Matchups to decide the championship matchup will be a slow burn.
Below are my 10 fantasy football busts, or players who may disappoint, for Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season. Hopefully, this will help you set winning fantasy lineups this week. Good luck, RotoBallers!
Najee Harris (RB, PIT) at Baltimore (Saturday)
With George Pickens sidelined, the Pittsburgh wide receiver room looks like this: Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin III, Mike Williams, Ben Skowronek, and Scotty Miller. That's four men cast aside by their former teams and an inexperienced, second-year fourth-round pick. It would make sense if Russell Wilson leaned more on the proven commodities at running back and tight end in the passing game.
Pat Freiermuth has gotten more looks (particularly in the red zone). Najee Harris has not. He's secured all of one pass in the two games Pickens has missed.
If Harris isn't getting bonus points in the passing game, he's essentially guaranteed a mediocre fantasy score against the Ravens. Baltimore is one of two teams to surrender under 900 rushing yards to backs this season.
Breece Hall (RB, NYJ) vs. Los Angeles Rams
How much work will Breece Hall get in Week 16 during a lost season for the Jets? Yes, he's off the injury report and on track to play against the Rams. Why would the Jets coaching staff push their franchise running back who is not 100 percent?
When he was on the injury report a week ago, Hall played under half the snaps. It took a late (just over a minute remaining) touchdown from one yard out to salvage Hall's fantasy stat line.
Breece Hall gives the Jets the lead with 1:05 left.
📺: #NYJvsJAX on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/hfUXcYQiiZ— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
While Hall may not be on the injury report, his backups are. Braelon Allen (back) and Isaiah Davis (back) were limited on Thursday. If either were to be out, Hall should see enough usage to take advantage of a middle-of-the-pack Los Angeles defense against running backs. If they're active, all three backs should be involved and things get dicey for Hall's outlook.
Patrick Taylor Jr. (RB, SF) at Miami
Injuries to Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason, and now Isaac Guerendo put San Francisco in this spot. Patrick Taylor Jr. is the (presumptive) starter for San Francisco on Sunday.
After losing RBs Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell to season-ending injuries, it now looks as if the 49ers will be without RB Isaac Guerendo for Sunday’s game vs. Miami. Guerendo is dealing with a hamstring injury and is unlikely to play, per source. pic.twitter.com/PyqyBCqPoT
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 19, 2024
In four professional seasons and across three teams, Taylor's role has largely been on special teams. The 26-year-old has a career-high of 11 carries in a meaningless Week 18 game in Green Bay during his rookie season. He was not brought to the 49ers to be a lead running back.
The 49ers roster Israel Abanikanda and Ke'Shawn Vaughn, two backs who also didn't make a splash in previous stops. They've had time to acclimate to the San Francisco offense. At least one should see a healthy amount of touches on Sunday. Fantasy managers shouldn't treat Taylor like a Mason or Guerendo-level replacement. The San Francisco backfield could finally get messy.
Joe Mixon (RB, HOU) at Kansas City (Saturday)
For the second time this season, Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon suffered an ankle injury due to a hip-drop tackle.
Hip drop tackle (not flagged)
Hope #JoeMixon can return pic.twitter.com/FFEnev5FhL— David J. Chao - ProFootballDoc (@ProFootballDoc) December 15, 2024
In both instances, he finished the game (although he labored through it for 23 rushing yards against Miami). He missed three games earlier this season. This time around, he is adamant about playing. Despite limited practice sessions all week, he's not on the final injury report.
Injury concerns aside, Mixon has the worst matchup in fantasy football. The Chiefs give up 15 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, two fewer per game than the next-best defense (Philadelphia). Kansas City is atop the charts for the fewest rushing and receiving yards to running backs.
Jerry Jeudy (WR, CLE) at Cincinnati
Why can't the Cleveland Browns let us have nice things? Savvy fantasy managers saw the upcoming Cincinnati matchup on the schedule and made appropriate moves to acquire Jameis Winston and Jerry Jeudy (or Elijah Moore, the lesser option). Winston tossed too many interceptions, forcing the coaching staff to turn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The change is ruining all the fun.
DTR started three games last year as a rookie and played a half following Deshaun Watson's injury in Week 7. He posted career-high marks for yards (165) and completion percentage (55.8%) against Pittsburgh in 2023. He also has one passing touchdown and seven interceptions. Thompson-Robinson is not an NFL-caliber passer.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson's interception rate is more than twice as bad as Jameis Winston's this season. Do you have any idea how hard that is to accomplish
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 17, 2024
The quarterback change means a downgrade for every Cleveland pass-catcher, especially Jeudy, who averaged 112 yards per game since Week 8.
Jameson Williams (WR, DET) at Chicago
Here's a fun fact: Jameson Williams has yet to play an outdoor game this season (he missed Detroit's game at Green Bay). Jared Goff has an extensive history of underperforming in the elements. William's splits may be worse.
Jared Goff hasn’t played in a cold weather game yet in 2024
It’ll be COLD in the Windy City Sunday
His last few “cold weather” games
2023 Week 14 @ CHI
- 161 yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs2022 Week 15 @ NYJ
- 252 yds, 1 TD2022 Week 18 @ GB
- 224 yds2020 Week 16 @ SEA
- 234 yds, 1 INT pic.twitter.com/0QeMDsc6h4— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) December 18, 2024
The third-year wideout has two catches for 53 yards and one touchdown in six career outdoor games. That's an average of 0.3 receptions and 8.8 yards per game. When the Lions are outside, his yards per target plummet (from 9.6 to 3.8).
Williams tallied 28 yards against the Bears (at home) a few weeks ago on Thanksgiving. Chicago holding receivers below their averages is a season-long trend. The Bears rank as the second-best fantasy football defense against the position.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS) vs. Philadelphia
Are we getting completely away from Terry McLaurin this week? No, he's the WR5 this season. It's extremely difficult to bench that production.
But McLaurin isn't without down games. His biggest disappointment was in Week 11 against this same Philadelphia secondary. Quinyon Mitchell and Co. held McLaurin to one catch for 10 yards. The entire offense was kept in check until garbage time.
Week 12 Shadow Report per @FantasyPtsData
- Quinyon Mitchell with the 0.0 FP line for Terry McLaurin on 22 routes
- Treveon Diggs held Nico to 2.1 FP
- Joey Porter shutdown Bateman
- McDuffie shutdown Amari Cooper
- Elite CB performances this week pic.twitter.com/ZMTeRPrFVX— Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) November 19, 2024
Philadelphia hasn't just shut down the Washington offense, either. The Eagles are the best secondary against fantasy football wide receivers.
More importantly, Philadelphia's given up just 10 receiving touchdowns to the position. That's McLaurin's bread and butter for fantasy success this season. He has 11 (a career-high) through 14 games. His other numbers aren't far off from his career averages.
Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL) vs. Tampa Bay
A case can be made for starting Jake Ferguson this week. The tight-end position is generally weak, and targeting a plus matchup can make a difference for streaming managers. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed the sixth-most points per game to the position this season.
But, it just hasn't worked with Cooper Rush under center. Ferguson has three (32 yards) and two catches (23 yards) in the two games since he returned from a concussion. Those stat lines were against the two worst fantasy football defenses (Cincinnati and Carolina) against tight ends.
If Ferguson can't get it done against the worst of the worst, how can he be trusted to deliver now? The Dallas offense is CeeDee Lamb with a heavy pinch of Rico Dowdle. No other Cowboys should be in lineups.
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI) at Carolina
Like Ferguson, Kyler Murray draws a Carolina defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. On paper, the matchup is excellent. In reality, there's cause for concern.
The Panthers are even weaker against running backs. Five of the last six running backs facing Carolina have topped 100 yards. Rico Dowdle was one yard shy of joining Alvin Kamara and Bucky Irving in the 150-yard club.
| RB vs. Carolina | Rushing Yards |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 155 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) | 103 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 68 |
| Bucky Irving (TB) | 152 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 124 |
| Rico Dowdle (DAL) | 149 |
The Arizona Cardinals call a run play at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. James Conner averages 87.4 rushing yards in Arizona wins while mustering 51.6 yards in losses. The running game is essential to Arizona's success, especially given Murray's 15:11 touchdown-to-turnover ratio.
Last week was a perfect example of what can happen to Murray. New England entered the Arizona game with the most points allowed to quarterbacks over the previous month. But the Patriots were also beatable on the ground and the Cardinals rode Conner to a victory. Murray scored 10.1 fantasy points.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA) vs. San Francisco
Aside from Tyreek Hill, Tua Tagovailoa's receiving corps looks like a practice squad. Jaylen Waddle (knee) and Dee Eskridge (knee) haven't practiced this week. Grant DuBose (head) and Braxton Berrios (knee) are on injured reserve. Hill, Malik Washington, and River Cracraft should be on the field often against San Francisco. Starting left tackle Terron Armstead (knee) is also not practicing.
49ers-Dolphins 12.19 Injury Report pic.twitter.com/R9C9TPPTiR
— Adam Beasley (@AdamHBeasley) December 19, 2024
So, expect a heavy, continued target share for Jonnu Smith and De'Von Achane. Unfortunately, the 49ers are No. 2 for the fewest fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
The unit isn't quite as good against quarterbacks, but only three (Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, and Josh Allen) have scored more than 20 fantasy points. With injuries to his supporting cast and the matchup, I'd look for another quarterback if rostering Tagovailoa.
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