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It can be a challenge to figure out which teams and players have the incentive to play their best in Week 18. That's why a lot of leagues finish in Week 17!
It would be nice if we could assume that every player suiting up on Sunday was going to play their usual amount of snaps or give maximum effort, but that simply isn't always the case.
Here are the Week 18 outlooks for DK Metcalf, Brian Thomas Jr., and Deebo Samuel Sr. - receivers who you may be considering for fantasy lineups or even DFS contests on Sunday.
Should I Start DK Metcalf for Fantasy Football?
It was a disappointing season for Metcalf this year, and his production tailed off in a big way after he injured his knee about halfway through the season.
DK Metcalf is the WR35 in total points and has averaged 12.6 fantasy PPG
He's been a WR1 in either total points or PPG just once in his career - his 2nd season. This will be his 4th straight season finishing outside Top 20 in fantasy PPG
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) January 1, 2025
With nothing really to play for in terms of playoffs and only the incentive of going over 1,000 yards receiving, it's hard to trust Metcalf this week, even if he's going up against some backups. He's seen a lot of his potential targets stolen away by Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and he's nothing more than a FLEX option at this point with some upside if he catches a deep ball for a score.
Should I Start Brian Thomas Jr. for Fantasy Football?
Thomas is poised to finish the year as one of the biggest breakout rookies in recent NFL history. Despite playing on a bad team and having to catch passes from a backup quarterback for the second half of the season, Thomas is lighting up the scoreboard every week and dominating matchups on the outside.
Brian Thomas Jr is in ELITE company as a rookie pic.twitter.com/DUJ7IzUWg3
— PFF (@PFF) December 30, 2024
Thomas has double-digit targets in five straight games and five touchdowns in those five contests. Against an Indy team that just got crushed by Malik Nabers, look for Thomas to continue to dominate and put up some big stats on Sunday. He's a WR1 (and maybe the overall WR1 this week) in all formats.
Should I Start Deebo Samuel Sr. for Fantasy Football?
The short answer here is "No" because Deebo was just ruled out for Sunday's game against the Cardinals.
We often talk about the receivers with the best Average Separation Score (ASS) via @FantasyPtsData, but let's peek at the receivers with the worst ASS against man coverage.
Notables include:
-David Moore🤪
-Jonathan Mingo🤮
-Deebo Samuel👀
-Gabe Davis🤣
-Jalen Tolbert🤔
-Cedric… https://t.co/dHqh8lRE3J pic.twitter.com/fizOvKekVY— Corbin (@corbin_young21) January 3, 2025
But honestly, even if Deebo was playing, he would have been a hard player to start. He simply hasn't done much lately as a receiver, and he's been nursing injuries all year. With Joshua Dobbs under center for the Niners, Deebo would have likely struggled to produce, too, so it's probably a good thing he is resting, and those opportunities will go to Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall.
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