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The Minnesota Twins had a fairly potent closing committee last season, which consisted of Emilio Pagan, Jhoan Duran, and mid-season acquisition Jorge Lopez. 31-year-old Pagan converted a team-leading nine saves out of 16 opportunities. Duran compiled eight saves, followed by Lopez who finished with four as a Twin.
As we creep closer to Opening Day, many are wondering how the Twins will construct their closing committee. They yielded a handful of bullpen pieces over the offseason, but the aforementioned three remain as closing candidates. The subtractions consisted of Michael Fulmer, Cody Stashak, Tyler Thornburg, Tyler Duffy, and Joe Smith.
Now, to pose the big question. Which Twins reliever is poised for the most save opportunities in 2023?
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The Twins Closer Committee
Out of the three relievers mentioned above, Pagan is most likely to be ousted from the closing committee. He compiled a 9:7 save-to-blown-save ratio, in which he allowed a .440 wOBA in high-leverage situations. Pagan yielded a 20.6% walk rate in these situations, along with an 8.51 FIP. The point has been made loud and clear; Pagan is not suitable for such climactic moments and is doubtful to close out any games in 2023.
As in the case of Duran and Lopez, the stat line is far more enticing in identical situations.
Jhoan Duran in high-leverage situations:
25 2/3 IP, 1.83 FIP, 27 K, 31.4% K rate, 0.58 WHIP, .164 wOBA
Jorge Lopez in high-leverage situations:
30 1/3 IP, 4.04 FIP, 28 K, 23.1% K rate, 1.12 WHIP, .293 wOBA
There is a clear discrepancy between the quality of performance in pressing situations that makes a clear winner. Duran was clearly the better performer in high-pressure innings, but Lopez is still a viable option to close out games.
Bottom Line
Despite the fact that Duran had better statistics during intense moments, we can't ignore Lopez's 23-save season. Before being shipped at the trade deadline to Minnesota, the 30-year-old was pitching in his peak form. He formed a 1.68 ERA with 54 strikeouts and a 241 ERA+. Many would assume that he would inherit the closing role in Minnesota. Obviously, that was not the case.
The two relievers both exhibit lights-out stuff, especially Duran's 101 mph heater, and the difference in velocity could decide their quota of save opportunities. Duran is evidently the harder-throwing reliever and had a more prominent season when tasked with difficult conditions. On the season, he composed a 1.86 ERA with 89 strikeouts and a 33.5% strikeout rate. He may not be as experienced as Lopez when it comes to closing situations, but the stats clearly indicate that he's the more effective closer.
The two relievers are both in line for some quality save opportunities heading into the season. 25-year-old Duran should get the vast majority of reps considering his high level of performance in save situations, but Lopez will certainly have his chances. Ironically enough, Lopez is projected to amass 20 saves according to Steamer, while his counterpart is given 11 saves.
Good luck this season Rotoballers!
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