Who Is The Nationals' Closer? Fantasy Baseball Saves Outlook

The Washington Nationals lost Hunter Harvey to the injured list last week. After feeling pain in his throwing arm following his last appearance against the Cardinals, he was diagnosed with a mild forearm strain and will be facing a 10-day shutdown followed by a rehab program. 

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The right-hander was the Nats’ most effective relief option, leading the bullpen in ERA (3.12), WHIP (0.99), and strikeout rate (28.3%). Harvey’s performance earned him a share of closer duties alongside Kyle Finnegan, who will take back that work while Harvey is out. 

At this time of year, everyone is reading injury reports and trade rumors, waiting for a bullpen shakeup that will bring save opportunities to somebody new. Finnegan suddenly has the closer job to himself again, but can he be relied on to give you an extra boost in the saves category? And given his track record, is there anyone in Washington’s bullpen that might also be entrusted to work the ninth inning?

The Woeful State of the Nationals Bullpen

Finnegan recorded his career-high twelfth save of the season on July 17 and his thirteenth on July 21st. He is currently sporting a 3.24 ERA. He also has seven blown saves (tied for most in the majors), and is among the worst in the league at allowing hard contact.  A glance at his Statcast rankings begs the question of why the Nationals choose to use Finnegan to finish out close games.

Perhaps the reason is job experience. Of the eight healthy relievers on the Nationals’ active roster, four are rookies who have pitched less than 10 innings so far this year. The next most experienced relievers, Cory Abbott (19.2 IP) and Jordan Weems (24.0 IP) are saddled with near identical FIPs of 5.84 and 5.88, respectively, and have not been used in a save situation this year. 

Setup man Mason Thompson has made 38 appearances this season but his body of work in 2023 does not suggest he will be poaching saves from Finnegan. Thompson allows baserunners in droves, giving up two or more hits or walks in half of his outings to the tune of a 1.321 WHIP. After he gave up two hits, two walks, and four earned runs in less than one inning of work against the Cubs on July 19, it is hard to believe the Nationals see him as an alternative to Finnegan in the ninth inning.

Options on the Injured List

The only other relievers Washington has with closing experience are on the injured list. Harvey's rehab assignment will prevent him from being activated until mid-August. Tanner Rainey (who split duties with Finnegan in 2022) is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is questionable to return this season.

Carl Edwards, Jr. had been a contender for the closer committee early in the season but has been on the injured list since June 20 with no timetable for his return. Edwards earned 13 holds (still leading the team) before hitting the IL last month but was also walking batters at a 12.0% rate, and striking them out just 16.9% of the time.

Finnegan's Job to Keep

Altogether this means that Finnegan will have the job to himself for at least a few more weeks. Even a regression toward his 4.68 xERA doesn't mean he will be losing playing time. He's simply the least-worst option Washington has. This won't necessarily translate to fantasy success, though. Since this is the Nationals we're talking about we can’t expect many save opportunities to arise in the first place. And Finnegan is as volatile as closers come - any amount of saves he provides will carry a heavy risk of hurting ratios.

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