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One of the riskiest strategies in any fantasy sport is to rely on rookies in redraft leagues. There have been a handful of superstar rookies to come through the league, but for every rookie that saves a fantasy team, there are many that get dropped to waivers or never make it to a roster.
Usually, what fantasy managers want to see most in a valuable rookie is that they have a clear path to playing time and opportunities throughout the season. After that, they need some sort of mixture of real-life draft capital, roster fit, hype, and a translatable game from college or international ball to the NBA.
So, when it comes to a draft class that many experts are calling weak, which rookies are even worth drafting? Are there any rookies that could be diamonds in the rough, and are they worth drafting at their ADP? Well, let's take a look at a handful of rookies that we think could be real assets!
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Zach Edey, C - Memphis Grizzlies
Yahoo ADP: 114
Last season, the Grizzlies were hit the hardest by the injury bug and we all saw a revolving door of players that may not even be heard from in this new season. They moved on from Steven Adams, and they didn't add any other veteran big men in his place. Enter Zach Edey through the NBA Draft.
There weren't any true centers on the Grizzlies before Edey came into the picture. Jaren Jackson Jr. played a good bit of center the past couple of seasons due to the fact that Steven Adams was the only other person on the roster big enough to play center. Santi Aldama and Brandon Clarke are more fit for the power forward spot, so Edey should be getting plenty of minutes at the five.
WOW:
JJJ hints that Zach Edey is going to be WAY BETTER than previously anticipated 🔥
It’s not crazy to say that Edey won’t just compete for ROTY, but MVP too 👀
— EdeyMuse (@EdeyMuse) October 2, 2024
The 7'4 Purdue product was a huge presence in the paint as he averaged 12.2 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game during his senior season. He also shot 62.3% from the field which consisted of a steady diet of post and putback scoring. The Grizzlies will want him to play the same role, so his biggest hurdle will be adjusting to the size and speed of the NBA.
If fantasy managers are looking for rebounds, efficiency, and some blocks thrown in, Edey is a solid selection for the late rounds of fantasy drafts.
Alexandre Sarr, C - Washington Wizards
Yahoo ADP: 138
If you happen to miss out on Zach Edey, might I interest you in Alexandre Sarr? The same big man prospect that many originally believed to be the top in the draft class will be featured on a Washington Wizards team that is in search of anything remotely helpful on the court. Sarr provides the size of a center but the versatility on defense to be able to play power forward as well.
His biggest question mark comes on the offensive side of the ball, but he's shown the willingness to try to stretch the floor even if it's not very efficient. Sarr is going to provide solid rebounding, defensive stats, and shooting efficiency, and could even pepper in some threes if the Wizards are willing to let him take his lumps as he develops throughout his rookie year. During his only season in the NBL, Sarr averaged 9.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks across 17.2 minutes per game while shooting 50.2% from the floor.
Even though Washington brought in Jonas Valanciunas, Sarr will likely see minutes at the four and five, while going back and forth from starting to coming off of the bench. Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley III are the only other competition for playing time, so as long as Sarr shows improvement, he should remain a solid contributor in big-man stats.
Reed Sheppard, SG - Houston Rockets
Yahoo ADP: 141
The Houston Rockets are the luckiest team in the lottery after taking Reed Sheppard at third overall while they have one of the best up-and-coming rosters in the league. They ended the season at .500 and finished just five games back of a play-in spot behind the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings. They added a couple of veteran leaders on both sides of the ball in Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks and saw an increase of 19 wins.
Now, Sheppard enters a situation that will require a lot of work to get big minutes in the beginning, but will likely result in some excellent numbers when it comes to shooting and distributing. Sheppard averaged 12.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game in his lone year at Kentucky while shooting a red-hot 52.1% from beyond the arc on 144 attempts. He even added 2.5 steals across 28.9 minutes per contest. While he may not start right away, that kind of shooting efficiency, combined with assist and steal numbers, will make him one of the top role players in fantasy basketball.
Add in the fact that he's getting drafted around the 141st pick on average, and fantasy managers can get some very nice value throughout the season.
.@reed_sheppard is all OVER 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/MtRfoPd43H
— Houston Rockets (@HoustonRockets) October 3, 2024
Stephon Castle, PG/SG - San Antonio Spurs
Yahoo ADP: 142
If we're going to be completely honest, it's rarely a bad idea to draft a rookie under the tutelage of Gregg Popovich. Especially if that rookie is a lottery pick who's coming into the league after playing for a highly respected college coach. Stephon Castle was one of the top guards in all of college basketball as a freshman while he helped UCONN to their second national championship in a row. He averaged 11.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.9 assists across 27 minutes per game with shooting splits of .472/.267/.755.
Castle's biggest knock on his game was his three-point shooting which is still a work in progress. Outside of that, he's proven to have a great feel for the flow of the game, a very good ability to get to his scoring spots, and was a top perimeter defender. Combine all of that with playing alongside Victor Wembanyama, Chris Paul, and Devin Vassell. Speaking of Chris Paul, the "point gawd" already has been giving Castle some very high praise and will serve as a second mentor for the young guard.
Chris Paul genuinely seems impressed with Stephon Castle
"I mean, i was nice when I came in as a rookie, but i......"
He had to stop himself from giving Castle too much praise lmao pic.twitter.com/rK7Eaju8YL
— Spurs Culture (@SpursCulture) October 4, 2024
Popovich loves players who work hard, play both sides of the ball, and accept criticism and coaching. Castle has all three traits and is sure to rise through the depth chart with some added minutes at the beginning of the season since Vassell is out until at least November 1. Jump on the Castle train before it leaves the station!
Yves Missi, C - New Orleans Pelicans
Yahoo ADP: 147
Another big man makes the list! This draft class may not have boasted the same type of superstar talent as the last few drafts, but there is some very good defensive and rebounding potential for this crop of bigs. Yves Missi joins the New Orleans Pelicans with defensive prowess combined with crazy athleticism. While there have been a few reports suggesting that Zion Williamson may get some minutes at center, there are still plenty of opportunities on the table for Missi while he competes with Daniel Theis in training camp.
The Baylor product was named to the Big 12 All-Defense and All-Freshman teams in his lone season with the Bears. His efficiency on offense as the cleanup man and rim runner was on full display with a field goal percentage of 61.4%. He also averaged 1.5 blocks and 5.6 rebounds across 22.9 minutes per contest. He boasted a player efficiency rating of 24.7 (second in the Big 12) and contributed 3.7 win shares.
Head coach Willie Green said that starting lineups and minute distributions are all still to be decided through training camp and preseason. He also mentioned that he wants Missi to compete every time he hits the floor and block every shot he can while mentioning that he's already doing as much so far. With an ADP of 147, that's some great value getting a center with those tools and the potential to even grab a starting spot as the season progresses.
Bub Carrington, PG/SG - Washington Wizards
Yahoo ADP: Undrafted
Let's touch on a big-time sleeper to wrap things up. If you're looking to use very little draft capital on a high-potential rookie, then look no further than Bub Carrington out of the University of Pittsburgh. Right now, he's going undrafted in most fantasy leagues even though he's in line to at least see a healthy chunk of minutes as the backup guard in Washington.
Carrington posted some impressive performances as a freshman at Pitt, like a triple-double in his very first game. He finished the year with 13.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 2.0 threes, and 1.9 turnovers per game with shooting splits of .412/.322/.785. He was one the best scorers off of screens in all of college basketball and he ranked second in the nation points per game from pull-up jumpers with 7.4. He also ranked fifth in made pull-up jumpers and knocked down 50.9% of them. Despite being a skinnier guard, he was able to use his body well and was even great at pull-up threes.
His passing ability was top-notch for someone as young as he is (turned 19 this summer), and can play well out of iso or spot-up situations. Even though Malcolm Brogdon has joined the Wizards, Carrington will likely receive the first shot at backup minutes behind Jordan Poole. He has a chance to play his way into a starting role depending on how Corey Kispert develops as well. For no draft capital at all, Carrington presents a ton of value heading into any fantasy format.
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