X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Which Rookie QB Can Turn Their Franchise Around?

Justin Carter breaks down which first-round rookie QBs have a chance to turn around the franchise they were drafted by and which one has the best fantasy football value for redraft and dynasty.

Last Thursday, the annual NFL Draft happened in Cleveland, but you know this already, reader. And you also know that the Jaguars drafted Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 overall pick.

You also know that five quarterbacks were taken in the first round. But, will any of those players be able to turn around the fates of their new franchises?

Maybe! Let's run through all five first-round QBs and figure out which ones are going to get their new teams to the next level.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence has been the next big thing at quarterback for years now. I remember seeing a video of him when he was still in high school and thinking "oh wow, this guy."

In 10 games last year, Lawrence completed 69.2 percent of his passes with 24 touchdowns and five interceptions. He also added 203 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. There's also that whole thing where he is very, very good at winning games, as he went 34-2 as a starter for the Tigers. If you look at PlayerProfiler's Trevor Lawrence page, you'll see this:

Obviously, Lawrence becoming Manning is, like, the best-case scenario and there's an incredibly small chance that happens. He has that pocket poise that Manning has but with the added benefit of being able to run:

Lawrence can play in any scheme. He can make any throw. And yes, he had the benefit at Clemson of having some really, really good weapons around him, but there's talent in Jacksonville. Marvin Jones Jr. was brought in this offseason. D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault Jr. are on this team. And they drafted one of Lawrence's Clemson weapons in Travis Etienne.

I honestly don't have much to say about Lawrence that hasn't already been said. He's the best quarterback prospect in years. The few holes in his game seem fixable. Lawrence is going to be a star, and while the Jaguars have historically been a poorly managed team, they seem like they're possibly heading in the right direction on the offensive side with the additions they've made and with new head coach Urban Meyer.

Verdict: Look, if someone can turn the Jaguars around, it's Trevor Lawrence.

 

Zach Wilson - New York Jets

With the No. 2 pick, the New York Jets selected quarterback Zach Wilson.

The BYU passer completed 73.5 percent of his passes last season, with 33 touchdowns and three picks. He also added 10 rushing scores. Those were incredible numbers, but I have concerns. And I'm not even talking about the level of competition stuff, though I know some people will bring that up.

My concerns are that I really, really don't trust one-year leaps. Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields were consistently good in college; Wilson had an 11:9 TD: INT ratio in 2019 and saw his completion percentage go up 11 percent this year.

He looks great on tape and I think Wilson projects to be a solid NFL starter, but with his quickness being something that makes him an incredibly useful player. He has some nice arm strength. But, I worry about consistency at the next level, as well as his pocket presence.

The Jets are a long way away from contending, and it's going to take an elite quarterback to make use of some promising but possibly underwhelming young weapons. Wilson might be good enough to get this team back to the postseason at some point, but I just don't see him completely turning the Jets around.

Verdict: I'm sorry, but I just can't get to the point where I'd predict Wilson saves this team. It's the Jets, y'all!

 

Trey Lance - San Francisco 49ers

Speaking of one-year sample sizes!

Lance, the No. 3 pick for San Fran, has one season as a starter in college. In 16 games in 2019, he threw for 2,786 yards, 28 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He also had 1,100 yards on the ground with 14 touchdowns.

I'm not super worried about the whole "one year of strong play" thing though because his 2020 season didn't happen. North Dakota State played just one game last year because of COVID, and while Lance wasn't great in it and threw the first interception of his college career, he still accounted for four touchdowns in that game. I'm confident that Lance would have had another strong season had his season happened. I don't want to hold that against him.

What I might hold against him is that he played FCS competition. Since 2008, eight other FCS quarterbacks have been drafted. If we discount the ones taken on Day 3 of the draft, we find three guys taken in the first two rounds: Carson Wentz, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Joe Flacco.

Those are solid quarterbacks, but none of them took the league by storm, even if Flacco did have that one really good stretch where he won a Super Bowl.

Still, I think Lance can be better than all of those guys. Why? Because unlike them, Lance is a dual-threat quarterback. He's a smart QB who can stand in the pocket and make accurate throws, but if things break down, he can make positive plays.

He'll also be working with Kyle Shanahan, who has a reputation for being a great offensive mind. That reputation could be a little exaggerated, but he's still arguably the best coach Lance could have ended up with. His transition into the league could take a year or two, but the 49ers are a well-run team that could win a Super Bowl with the right person under center.

Verdict: San Francisco doesn't really need to be turned around -- they just need consistent quarterback play from someone who isn't missing games. I think Lance can be that guy.

 

Justin Fields - Chicago Bears

My No. 2 QB from this draft, Fields landed in the ideal spot for a rookie quarterback.

And yes, I know Chicago has a terrible history with quarterbacks. Doesn't matter. This is a great landing spot.

The Bears were a playoff team last year despite starting Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles at quarterback. They have one of the NFL's best receivers in Allen Robinson II. They have a decent pass-blocking line. They have some nice ancillary pieces like Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller, plus a promising young tight end in Cole Kmet. There's also Tarik Cohen, who can be a dynamic weapon when healthy.

Plus, this team ranked eighth in defensive DVOA last year, per Football Outsiders. Fields won't be asked to do too much for this team.

Last year for Ohio State, Fields completed 70.2 percent of his passes for 2,100 yards, 22 touchdowns, and six picks. He added 383 rushing yards and five touchdowns on his way to being named Big Ten quarterback of the year.

There are knocks on his decision-making because he looks to his first read too much, but I really, really think that's overblown. Fields is an incredibly accurate player in the pocket and should be able to deal with pressure well. He's not a Trey Lance-type of athlete, but I trust him much more as a passer than I trust Lance.

Verdict: Justin Fields will at least be the best Bears quarterback since Jay Cutler. His ceiling is far higher than that.

 

Mac Jones - New England Patriots

These pictures might make you think that Mac Jones is going to be the next GOAT. I am...not sure about that:

Mac Jones completed 77.4 percent of his passes last year and 68.8 of them in 2019. He also had arguably the best weapons in football those two years. That 2019 Alabama team featured four receivers who were first-round picks in the NFL. He was throwing to a Heisman winner in DeVonta Smith. He had Jaylen Waddle to stretch the field.

Jones just doesn't have the arm strength that these other guys have. He can't create when the offensive line breaks down, which seems bad when playing behind a line that had the fifth-worst adjusted sack rate last season.

He's going to make smart plays and he's going to throw with a lot of accuracy but there just doesn't seem to be that elite upside. The other four first-round quarterbacks can make something out of nothing. I don't know if Jones is capable of doing that. He'll succeed if the weapons around him are good, but New England might have the worst receiver situation in the league right now. I just...yeah, I don't think this is the answer.

Verdict: I trust Bill Belichick, but I don't think I trust him enough to say that Mac Jones is going to turn this franchise back in the right direction.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Moises Ballesteros

Riding An 11-Game Hit Streak
Victor Mesa Jr.

Starting Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF