When Will Joe Musgrove Return and Be Back? Fantasy Baseball Injury Update

Dylan Cease has been grabbing the baseball headlines recently. Cease blanked the lowly Washington Nationals for a no-hitter on July 25 for the second no-hitter in Padres club history. But what about the guy who threw the other Padres no-hitter a few years ago?

That would be none other than Joe Musgrove. Musgrove will likely slot in as the SP2 in the Padres rotation, which has some decent, perhaps average, names below that. Matt Waldron is a fun knuckleballer and Michael King has been more than serviceable this year since coming over from the Yankees.

Musgrove has been on the shelf with elbow inflammation since June 1. This is a concerning injury in a pitcher's throwing arm, but in recent years, the outcome of these injuries has been highly variable. Managers would be smart to keep an eye on Musgrove's possible return, discussed more below.

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Joe Musgrove Injury Update for Fantasy Baseball

Musgrove is throwing two innings of ball on July 30 at the team's complex in Peoria, Ariz. If this goes well, the next logical step would be a rehab assignment. Perhaps he would have one more bullpen-ish session, but either way, he is moving toward a return, barring a setback.

Having been out more than two months, one has to imagine at least a couple of rehab starts are in store for Musgrove. Assuming about one rehab start per week, that puts Musgrove on track for a return in the third week of August at the earliest.

For managers with multiple open IL spots, Musgrove is a savvy addition based on that timeline. Holding him an IL spot for 2-3 weeks with the upside he can bring upon his return is entirely worth it. Those without IL spots will have to keep notifications on for his return, which at this juncture is certainly on track for August.

Joe Musgrove Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Musgrove logged 49 1/3 IP before hitting the shelf in 2024. This is right on the border of enough sample size to truly conclude from peripheral statistics. Furthermore, elbow inflammation is an injury that can creep in insidiously, so one has to wonder if his April and May performances were hampered by an evolving injury. His fastball velocity was down just ever so slightly before his injury, sitting at 92.4 mph from 93.1 mph in 2023.

For what it is worth, Musgrove had a grotesque 5.66 ERA in April and May of this year across 10 starts. His 5.34 FIP was not much better, but this is difficult to rectify with a markedly disparate 4.29 xFIP. Managers should consider if they can conclude from these numbers in such a small sample of innings. Perhaps he will go back to his slider more, which is a successful pitch for him historically.

Padres SP Joe Musgrove Slider usage is at a career low in 2024 at 8.8%.

Sorta odd considering the pitch has yielded a:

144 Stuff+ (3rd best in MLB)
.203 xSlug, .231 wOBA, 14.3% HH%

—>All 1st among his pitch arsenal.

Was glad to see him throw it 29 times yesterday v. TOR pic.twitter.com/403pXtLlqP

— Clark Fahrenthold (@CFahrenthold11) April 22, 2024

What does stand out is a .348 BABIP in those 10 starts. This number is not sustainable for hitters, and Musgrove's career average is .294. He will need to work on the ugly 19.2% HR/FB he was sporting pre-injury this year, but Musgrove seems set to pitch much better upon his return. At this time, managers should give him the benefit of the doubt that these ugly statistics were due to a brewing throwing-arm injury.

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