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Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson has been an elite fantasy contributor since joining the NFL in 2020 from LSU.
The former 22nd-overall pick has amassed an incredible 5,899 yards on 392 catches with 30 scores through his first four professional seasons and has solidified himself as one of, if not the best, wide receiver in the game today.
What is Jefferson's fantasy football outlook and when should you draft him in 2024? Let's dive in.
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Justin Jefferson Fantasy Football Outlook
Last season, Jefferson missed seven games due to a hamstring injury but still finished with an elite 20.2 PPR points per game which placed him fifth among all wideouts. Jefferson posted an elite 2.78 yards per route run and was targeted on an eye-catching 25.9% of his routes.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON 52-YARD TD FOR THE LEAD
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📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/UQdQ05hqXN pic.twitter.com/I6yR2VECKf— NFL (@NFL) September 24, 2023
However, his outlook may not look as bright as it has in the past. Kirk Cousins left Minnesota in free agency to sign with the Atlanta Falcons. The Vikings responded by selecting J.J. McCarthy out of Michigan with the 10th-overall selection in this year's draft but unfortunately, he suffered a season-ending knee injury during camp.
As a result, this leaves Sam Darnold as the starting quarterback in Minnesota which could greatly hinder Jefferson's overall production this season. Although, the 25-year-old wideout is not a stranger to playing with backup quarterbacks and fading him this season may not be the wisest decision.
When Should I Draft Justin Jefferson in Fantasy Football?
After Kirk Cousins suffered a season-ending Achilles' injury, Jefferson did not see a drop in production and remained an elite fantasy option. From Weeks 15-to-18, Jefferson totaled 88.4 PPR points, which placed him third among wide receivers in that span, only behind CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
During those weeks, Jefferson caught passes from Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall. Now, he will catch passes from Sam Darnold, who has much better previous NFL experience compared to those two. Darnold served as the starting QB for the New York Jets for several seasons before moving on to Carolina, and then for a backup role in San Francisco last season.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON 38 YARD TOUCHDOWN ON 4TH AND 1pic.twitter.com/kzDyxND6Qi
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) January 7, 2024
While Darnold has never taken the next step forward in his development many would have hoped, he has never had a wide receiver like Justin Jefferson. In addition, the Vikings also have a strong supporting cast in Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, and T.J. Hockenson (knee) which will help Darnold push the ball downfield even further.
Do not be afraid to take Jefferson anywhere as early from the No.4 spot in drafts. He is the best wide receiver in football and should not be faded simply due to his potential weak QB play. He still posted elite numbers with Mullens and Hall down the stretch and Darnold could even take a step further than they did last season.
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