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Fantasy football managers are very happy that Diontae Johnson was able to escape Pittsburgh just like Snake Plissken was able to escape from New York and Los Angeles. Just when Johnson’s fantasy worth was nearing deep-sea depths not seen since his rookie campaign in 2019, he was traded to the Carolina Panthers this offseason.
Johnson’s fantasy value was hit with the force of Troy Polamalu in his prime the past two years in Pittsburgh. The Steelers' mediocre, run-first offense and their subpar quarterback crew caused Johnson’s stats to nosedive. In 2022, he was targeted 147 times, yet failed to score a single touchdown. In 2023, he had a career-low 51 receptions and was overshadowed by George Pickens as Pittsburgh’s WR1 by season’s end.
Now that Johnson is with Carolina, will a change of scenery mean a new lease on fantasy life? When should fantasy managers draft this premium pass-catcher? Let's break it down.
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Diontae Johnson Fantasy Football Outlook
Carolina has made moves to give Bryce Young more toys for his sandbox. Adding Johnson via trade along with drafting speedster Xavier Legette, tailback Jonathon Brooks, and tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders in April has upgraded the arsenal around the franchise quarterback.
Bryce Young to Diontae Johnson is gonna be a lot of fun this season. pic.twitter.com/7G8Z81FFbh
— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) August 24, 2024
Johnson had 460 targets over three years at the height of his fantasy greatness with the Steelers. It is hard to see him getting 140-150 targets in this offense, however. There are too many decent pass-catchers Young will have to spread the ball around to. We have not even mentioned veteran possession receiver Adam Thielen, who is coming off a 1,000-yard year.
So do not draft Johnson thinking he will post another 107-1,161-8 line as he did in 2021. That would be asking a lot from him when we do not know how much Young has improved after a horror show of a rookie year. I can see Johnson finishing with 90 catches for 1,000 yards and six scores.
When Should I Draft Diontae Johnson in Fantasy Football?
Johnson is currently running as a WR37 with an overall ADP of 86. That means he should be your WR4 and should be taken between the 8th and 10th rounds, depending on how many teams are in your league.
Johnson will regain his footing as a fantasy force, and although he is not a top-15 WR for fantasy and should not be drafted like one, he could be a top-25 guy if everything breaks right.
Time will tell if Johnson is to Carolina's passing attack what Mike Evans was to Tampa Bay's passing attack under Dave Canales. Canales seems to prefer leaning on certain backs and receivers rather than getting more players, but he did not have the young depth at the skill positions there that he has in Carolina.
Draft Johnson where you are supposed to, but it will not ruin your season if you take him a round early.
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