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Back in 2018, Walker Buehler began a stretch of dominance that included two All-Star appearances, a World Series title, and culminated with a 16-4 season in 2021 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. In 2022, however, all of that momentum came to a screeching halt when he had to undergo the second Tommy John operation of his career.
The righty pitched just 12 games in 2022 and missed all of 2023 while he recovered. Finally healthy, he'll be expected to help out a depleted Dodgers rotation in 2024 that is also currently without Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, and others.
But what does that translate to for fantasy? Is he worth drafting in standard 12-team leagues? Will he even be the same pitcher once he returns? Let's take a look.
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Walker Buehler Injury Update for Fantasy Baseball
On 3/19, Buehler was placed on the 15-day IL. He doesn't have a definitive return date yet, but he's expected to get some work in the minors before making his 2024 debut. He's already thrown some live batting practice and reportedly back up to 97 mph on the radar gun.
#Dodgers Walker Buehler said his last Live BP he went 3 innings and hit 97.
via @JustBB_Media pic.twitter.com/rG7ijAJhbf— DodgersBeat (@DodgersBeat) March 18, 2024
Right now it's estimated that he'll return mid-to-late April. How many innings he throws this season is another question mark, as the Dodgers will likely be somewhat cautious with how hard they push him when he does return.
Walker Buehler Fantasy Baseball Outlook
At the top of his game, he is one of the league's most dominant arms, but expectations will have to be tempered this season. With his innings potentially limited and a delayed start to the season, managers will have to balance the risk/reward. He's certainly in an environment that should give him a distinct advantage in the win column with the Dodgers' lineup expected to provide plenty of run support.
ATC projections have the 29-year-old logging 21 starts this season, going 9-5 with a 4.10 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 15.8% K-BB%. That seems like a reasonable expectation given the risks, although it hasn't stopped managers from drafting him with the expectation of a return to his pre-2022 standards. He's got an NFBC ADP of 163, well ahead of his RotoBaller rank of 182. Knowing what his ceiling is though, you shouldn't let him fall far past that spot in drafts.
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