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One of the bigger storylines early in the 2023 season was the rather shocking struggles of Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner. The 30-year-old hit .247 with a .687 OPS in the season's first half, good for an 84 wRC+ that sat 16% below the league average. However, fantasy managers who prudently refused to hit the panic button were rewarded with a .297 average along with a .901 OPS and a 140 wRC+ following the All-Star break.
Fast forward to this season and Turner is hitting .345 through 33 games but he also has just a pair of homers before hitting the shelf with a left hamstring injury. Not only will the Phillies miss a potent bat near the top of their lineup, but fantasy managers will be wanting to know when the all-world shortstop will be able to return to action.
Let's dive in and get an update on Turner's status and what fantasy managers can expect upon his return.
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Trea Turner Injury Update for Fantasy Baseball
Turner injured his hamstring in a contest against the San Francisco Giants on May 3 and it didn't take long for his timetable to be set. According to The Athletic's Matt Gelb on May 4, Turner was set to miss six weeks from the date of his injury. Fast forward about 10 days and we are seemingly still at least a month away from Turner's return to game action.
Phillies wanted Bryson Stott to take some pregame work at shortstop this weekend, but the weather didn't cooperate. Rob Thomson said it's quite possible Stott starts at SS on Monday anyway.
Phillies have options up the middle: https://t.co/hB1ZonAL83
— Matt Gelb (@MattGelb) May 5, 2024
That's right, fantasy managers, don't hold your breath on Turner's return. Keep in mind the tentative timetable doesn't factor in potential setbacks as managers would be wise to find a medium-term contingency plan up the middle.
Trea Turner Fantasy Baseball Outlook
As noted, Turner was off to a hot start at the plate with a blistering .345 average across his first 148 trips to the plate. However, positive regression was a guarantee moving forward.
Turner's 45.9% hard-hit rate ranks in the 75th percentile but his .421 BABIP was sure to head south. He has a track record of bloated BABIPs (.342 career average) but this figure was surely unsustainable. There was also a lack of power with two homers, a .117 isolated power, and a 6.4% barrel rate that ranks in the league's 38th percentile. Furthermore, his .329 xwOBA sits well below his .378 wOBA.
Despite some red flags, there isn't much for managers to worry about moving forward. After all, his power returned in the second half of last season as he ended up slugging 26 homers to go along with his 30 stolen bases. He has still provided value in the speed department with 10 swipes on the season but fantasy managers will want to keep an eye on how often he plans on running after returning from a hamstring injury.
All told, the track record suggests he will be just fine. He is a .298 career hitter with plenty of pop and elite speed. Let's exercise some patience and await a healthy return in roughly a month's time.
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