When is Justin Steele Coming Back? Fantasy Baseball Injury Return Update

Justin Steele projected as a top-25 pitcher in many 2024 preseason rankings. While Shota Imanaga provided the offseason excitement, Steele quietly assumed the opening-day starter role. While the jury is still out on Imanaga's ceiling in the MLB, Steele was operating as the proverbial ace for the Chicago Cubs coming into 2024.

Unfortunately for managers who sought value in Steele as a relatively late pick for a team's No. 1 starter, things took a quick turn for the terrible when he pulled up with a hamstring injury on Opening Day. Hamstrings, amongst injuries like lat strains and elbow inflammation, can range wildly from a few weeks to most of the season depending on the severity.

While things briefly looked bleak for Steele's return, more recent news has suggested reasons for optimism. Steele is shut down for April, a rather typical time course (four to six weeks) for a muscle strain, but the Cubs remain optimistic he can return to the starting rotation as early as May.

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Justin Steele Injury Update for Fantasy Baseball

Mild to moderate muscle strains, in general, require four to six weeks of rest before really trying to ramp up. Steele being out for all of April fits with that minimum timeline. When he does return to a throwing program, the first few days will be critical to follow to see if he can proceed without any setbacks. If so, things look optimistic for a mid to late May return. The fact that he was seen throwing in the outfield just days after his injury suggests he may even spend the minimum 15 days on the IL and start a formal throwing program right after that.

Justin Steele out here throwing already. Dude will be back with no delays. pic.twitter.com/HqjyosKrVa

— jamie baker (@rljmb23) April 1, 2024

Both the Cubs general manager and Craig Counsell have said they are optimistic about a May return for Steele. Already doing some light throwing (including loading on that injured hamstring) is very encouraging for a May return. Barring a setback, things are looking up for Steele to miss as few as three or four starts.

Justin Steele Fantasy Baseball Outlook

As mentioned above, Steele came into the season with decent hype; a top-25 projected starting pitcher on many lists. He was identified by many as a value pick, someone a bit less flashy than others with similar projections due to pitching on the Cubs and being in the middle of his career.

Steele posted a strong 3.02 FIP in 2023 over 173.1 IP, good for a top-10 finish in one of the most telling peripheral stats available. The strikeouts were about average at 24.6% K%, but his control was also solid with a minuscule 5.0% BB%. Steele is a great example of a starting pitcher who can be drafted in a round filled with SP3-level talent, but easily provide SP2 and possibly even ace upside for fantasy managers.

Justin Steele's 2Ks in the 2nd.

4Ks thru 2. pic.twitter.com/qj0ZSaDL0H

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 29, 2024

Steele was dealing the first couple of times through the order on Opening Day against a strong Rangers lineup before things came to a halt with the injury. While his fastball is pedestrian, averaging around 92 mph, he makes up for it by how he combines it with his slider. Both his fastball and slider have significant left-to-right run. With the same delivery point making the two pitches look similar, his slider will keep running into righties and away from lefties. This extra movement from the same release point, coupled with a 9.0 mph velocity differential, makes for a strong one-two punch to fool hitters.

With the club on record being optimistic for a May return and videos surfacing from Wrigley of Steele already doing light throwing, things are looking up for a May return. Hold Steele in your IL spot. Consider targeting him in a trade with managers who may have an abundance of pitchers beyond Steele. His lack of flashiness makes him a consistent buy-low candidate with SP3 floor and SP1/2 upside.

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