Trey Lance - 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

The roller coaster that Trey Lance has put the fantasy community on is less fun than it looked. This is one of those roller coasters that has brought us all the way to the top and has the community dangling before it drops.

Although some people love the anticipatory delay before the drop, others can’t stand it. The only thing certain is the inevitable drop. Whether you reach the bottom loving the thrill of the ride or reaching for the trash can, that’s to be decided.

That drop is going to come in 2023, and whether you’re a fantasy thrill-seeker or an amusement avoider, we will have some answers this season. My name is Ellis Johnson, and this is my Trey Lance 2023 breakdown.

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The Worst Case

Since 2010 there have only been three QBs selected with a top 10 draft pick to have 16 or fewer starts in their first two years in the NFL. Tied with 16 starts are Jake Locker (2011 pick #8 Titans) and Josh Rosen (2018 pick #10 Cardinals). Of course that makes Trey Lance the third QB on this list with only four starts. Right away this shows the anomaly it would be if Trey Lance does not get another chance to start in the near future. Whether that is with the 49ers or another team is still a question, however, it sure looks like the 49ers are holding on to the unproven prospect.

If we are to compare Lance to either Locker or Rosen, I guess it would most likely be Jake Locker. This is not from a statistical standpoint but solely from a potential career trajectory. For those of you who are unfamiliar with Locker, he was the backup in his first year in the league and became a starter the following year. After playing the majority of the season he sustained a Lisfranc injury in 2013; the following year he suffered three injuries ultimately starting only seven games. He later retired in 2015 claiming he lost his motivation.

Obviously, this would be a horrific trajectory for Lance, but I want to be clear that Lance is still a long way from falling out of the league and “losing motivation.” Additionally, the recovery from a Lisfranc injury is more severe than Lance’s ankle. Wilder things have happened, but regression to the mean is a gamble I’ll happily take.

The Potential

So that’s the absolute worst case. What are the other possibilities? I am so glad you asked that. Well, let’s go back to Lance as a prospect. Coming out of North Dakota State University playing NCAA division one football, Lance had caught the attention of NFL general managers everywhere. Although his college career was cut short by COVID-19, his 2019 season made up for it. Over the 16-game season, he passed for an average of 174 yards per game, rushed for a nice 69 yards per game as well as 14 total rushing touchdowns. The most impressive stat was his 28 touchdowns to zero interceptions. He did this while averaging a passing touchdown every 10.25 attempts. Do these metrics and his athleticism over a small sample size remind you of anyone?

Anthony Richardson has dominated the headlines in the fantasy community this offseason, and rightfully so. Richardson is the most athletic QB to enter the NFL and was electric in college. Unfortunately, COVID-19 also meant that Lance did not have an NFL Combine, making any direct combine comparisons to Richardson impossible. However, I think it’s safe to assume that although very athletic, he would not have surpassed Richardson’s record-breaking combine performance. So what can we compare? Well, since they both had one dominant college season, let’s take a look at that. It is important to note that Richardson played in the SEC, which is widely considered one of the toughest conferences in NCAA football. Lance also played in division one, however in the Missouri Valley conference. Here is how the numbers compare.

Conferences can play a big part in this discussion, and you can determine how much you want to weigh that as a factor. However, what I am drawn to are ZERO interceptions, the rushing, and the touchdown efficiency. Similar to an NFL team being a heavy favorite against an inferior opponent, you expect them to dominate. In this case, domination is exactly what Lance did against an inferior conference.

As you might expect, I am also a huge fan of Richardson for fantasy football. However, I wanted to discuss these players’ similarities in style and rookie hype. Using the renowned Dynasty website Keep Trade Cut, here is a glimpse at how these two are being valued currently. Richardson is the QB- nine, right behind Justin Fields. On the other hand, Lance is QB19 behind Kenny Pickett. Wow. This is quite the discrepancy considering one has yet to take an NFL snap and the other has averaged 191 passing yards/g and 54 rushing yards/g in four NFL starts. Either way, these young players are part of well-established organizations and I see a bright future for both.

The Situation

There’s one last elephant in the room, and that is Brock Purdy. Honestly, I love Purdy. His story and ability have both been phenomenal. The 49ers owner has also publicly stated that Purdy has earned the right to be the starter; it’s hard to argue with that. Why am I convinced Lance is the starter in 2023? Well, besides the draft capital and personal trust in his talent and ability, it’s looking like Purdy will not be healthy for Week One. Since Purdy may miss the start of the season, here is a quote from Head Coach Kyle Shanahan on March 28th, 2023:

“Brock played eight games. Trey had that job going into last season and if he would've played eight games like that, no one else would've been able to come in and beat him out.”

If he does make a timely recovery, I think it all comes down to how you viewed Lance as a prospect. Personally, I still believe he is as advertised. As a result, if there’s a QB competition I think Lance will dominate. My only worry is that in their small sample sizes, Purdy’s completion percentage is 65% while Lance’s is 55%. I do want to point out that Lance’s one full game in 2022 was in a horrific rainstorm where he posted a 46% completion percentage. Either way, the athleticism alone should leave Kyle Shannahan salivating. I also think Shanahan has seen that a solid game-managing QB can only get you so far in today’s NFL. Jimmy Garropolo did make a Super Bowl, however, failed to convert against Patrick Mahomes. This further emphasizes the importance of having a game-changing QB like Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts. Obviously, job security is a risk, and no one outside of the organization knows exactly how the team feels about a QB battle. That's where fantasy players need to make their own decision on how they feel about Lance's talent and ability.

The Value

Referring back to Keep Trade Cut, in a dynasty Superflex, Lance is comparable to Derrick Henry, Christian Kirk, Jared Goff, and Dalton Kincaid. If Lance succeeds, he will be the top QB on one of the league’s best teams. A QB who just celebrated their 23rd birthday on May 9th (happy birthday!) with that potential is worth their weight in gold, not a late first. Either he explodes and becomes worth multiple firsts, or flames out and gets a chance on another team, it’s a lot of upside for what I believe is a relatively inexpensive gamble.

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