Trey Lance fractured his ankle in his third start in the NFL against the Seattle Seahawks and will miss the remainder of the season after surgery Monday morning. This is a huge blow for Lance, his fantasy managers, and perhaps the ceiling of the 49ers offense.
As always, we aren't here to simply gloss over the serious and disappointing injury, but as fantasy football enthusiasts, we must evaluate what the return of Jimmy Garoppolo as the 49ers' starting quarterback means for fantasy football. The fantasy impact of the injury obviously means Garoppolo is now on the fantasy radar as a streamer in favorable matchups, but what does the chance at QB mean for Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, and even the San Francisco rushing attack?
We'll dive into it all below.
How is Deebo Samuel Affected By Jimmy Garoppolo?
Samuel's value and fantasy production could see a nice boost by the return of Garoppolo. While Lance was brought in to elevate the ceiling of the 49ers' offense and add a new dynamic, Jimmy G is the more accurate passer at this point in his career. While Lance was a project, we know what we're getting out of Garoppolo. Samuel should see more accurate targets, but more importantly, he could see more work in the backfield.
With Lance out, the quarterback rushing attempts will go back to near the bottom of the league. Lance looked to be set up for a huge rushing season with a lot of attempts, especially near the goal line. Kyle Shanahan isn't going to use Garoppolo as a rusher, so Samuel might get back some of the precious red zone and goal-line rushing work. All in all, this is likely a positive development for Samuel.
Fantasy Outlooks for Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, and George Kittle
Like Samuel, these guys likely see a boost in target accuracy. The 49ers will likely pass at a higher rate now that the dual-threat weapon in Lance is unavailable. While Garoppolo takes a lot of heat for his decision-making and lack of upside, he's proven to be able to support several fantasy-relevant wide receivers. Expect Samuel to produce WR1 numbers and Aiyuk to produce boom weeks here and there moving forward.
When George Kittle (groin) finally makes his season debut he should be considered a top-five option at tight end. Jauan Jennings likely won't be on the fantasy radar, but he's a decent deep league stash in case of an injury to one of the 49ers' pass-catchers.
Fantasy Outlooks for 49ers' running backs.
Elijah Mitchell (knee) will be out for some time, but Jeff Wilson Jr. and Tyrion Davis-Price will also likely benefit from the change at QB. Put simply, there is now one less rushing threat in the 49ers' offensive attack, so even though the RBs will share carries with Deebo Samuel, they'll see an uptick in usage. Each Niners' running back will have a chance to handle short-yardage and goal-line work, so any of them could be candidates to see a value boost.
The 49ers' backfield has been tricky to navigate during the Shanahan era, but it became even trickier when the starting quarterback was a major threat to handle a ton of rushing work.
Jimmy Garoppolo Fantasy Outlook
Garoppolo will become a low-ceiling and low-floor quarterback in fantasy once again, but he's proven to have value as a streamer in favorable matchups. He won't be what we hoped Lance could be, but he's worth keeping an eye on with something to prove.
Ultimately, everyone except Lance has a brighter outlook in wake of his injury. The overall offense won't reach its peak ceiling under Garoppolo, but the floor is far higher under the veteran signal-caller.
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