X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

The Method to the Matchups Madness - An In-Depth Look

By Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Last year was my first year writing the matchups column for RotoBaller, and let me tell you it was a bear. Covering 12-14 games every week, and having to write about every single relevant player from each team is a time-consuming task no one should have to embark on. So when I signed up to do it again my first thought was "what the hell are you doing, man?" Even as I was spending 20+ hours a week a year ago writing the column, I knew there had to be a better way. I just had to find it. Well, I am happy to report that not only did I find it, but in the process I feel like I found a better way to determine the strengths of matchups as well. Basically, it is a win for everybody.

Since you clicked on this link I can only assume you are a nerd like me, and you want to understand how the matchups are calculated and why Player A is ranked high but Player B is ranked low. That's a good thing! I think it is important to not just blindly follow what someone says. There are a lot of "experts" out there with opinions - some good, some bad.

The nice thing about these matchups is there is 100% no bias in it at all. It is strictly driven by numbers and skill at a player versus player level. Often you might here someone say "sit player X because the Ravens give up the fewest points to running backs." But this ignores many factors that can impact a matchup in a given week. What if the Ravens played terrible run teams so far? What if they have injuries to key run-stoppers and no longer posses a good run defense? What if they are playing Barry Sanders? Football is a game played by teams, but the teams are made up of individuals. Like everyone, some individuals are better at certain things than others. By looking at the matchups at an individual level, not just of the offensive player but of all the defensive players as well, we get a much more accurate representation of what will happen. Plus, when an injury happens we can quickly swap out the injured player for his replacement and immediately see the effect it has on the defense and the matchup. Let's dig into the gritty details.

Featured Promo: Get any full-season Props Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Player Evaluation

I use Pro Football Focus (PFF) for all my player evaluations. I tested with them a few years ago and let me tell you, it is rigourous and they demand incredible accuracy. I didn't even come close to making the cut, the attention to detail they put into every player is mind-blowing. There is no one better in the business in my opinion. Are they 100% accurate? Probably not. They're human. But I would bet money they are at worst 98% or better. I'll take that.

By using player evaluations, I can see how a player performs in certain situations. How good is a running back at running the ball? What about pass catching? Is a linebacker better in pass coverage or run defense? Is that interior lineman a great pass protector but poor at opening holes for his backs? Luckily PFF does this for me, I just have to collect the data.

So that's the first step, collect the data. I collect data for every fantasy relevant offensive player, every starting offensive lineman, and a team's entire starting defense. This way when I look at a player who runs half his routes from the left, I can see how he matches up against the defenses right corner. If a running back primarily is asked to line up to the left side of his line, I can see how the left side of the line stacks up against the right side of the defensive line. I can do this with literally every position and get a look, at an individual level, to see where the best matchups lie. I don't know of any other matchup tool that does this (though they may exist).

Once I have all player data collected, I can then build matchups at a positional level. Let's look at each of those.

 

Quarterbacks

For quarterbacks I start with pressure. Pressure is the best way to stop a passing game and teams that apply more pressure are generally better against the pass. But pressure is not a one-way street. Just because a team has a strong front seven doesn't mean the quarterback will have less time to throw. If his offensive line can neutralize the front seven then he should have a clean pocket. So pressure is determined by looking at how well each offensive lineman pass protects, versus the player they will likely be tasked with blocking. A negative pressure number means the defense has the advantage, while a positive number means the offense has the advantage. Obviously, when targeting a quarterback you want one who has a positive number in this category.

Next I look at directional stats. Essentially I look at what percentage of the time a quarterback targets the left, middle, or right side of the field. I get this data from FFStatistics (ffstatistics.com). Quick shout out to Addison Hayes who has collected tons of data on his site, it is a must for fantasy players and is completely free. Though you should go donate. Once I know where a quarterback likes to throw the ball, I can look at the players that will likely be guarding that area of the field. Once I know where a quarterback prefers to throw, I can look at the wide receivers that are likely to be targeted there and how likely they are to be open versus the defender. It is the receivers job to get open, and the quarterback's job to see them and place the ball accurately. This is where the skill of the quarterback comes in. So by looking at the receivers versus the corners, then the skill of the quarterback, I can come up with a "Coverage" rating. Again, positive numbers are good, negative are bad.

Once I have the pressure and coverage rating, I just combine them to get an overall rating of the matchup. This is the number that will be used for the ranking.

 

Running Backs

Running backs are tricky because they both run the ball and catch the ball. Some run more than catch and some catch more than run. Therefore we have to look at both how likely the offensive line is to open up holes for the back, and how likely the linebackers will be at covering the back.

For rushing I start with directional stats from FFStatistics. I look at how often the player runs left, middle or right. From there I can see how strong the offensive line is on each side versus the defensive line on the same side. For example, a defense may have a very strong defensive line, but if they are only strong on one side, and the offense prefers to run to the other side, this could actually be considered an advantage for the offense. By knowing where a team likes to run the ball, and were defenders generally line up, I can better see advantages and disadvantages at each part of the line. Taking all of this into account gives us the "Rushing" rating.

For pass-catching, I look at the skill of the running back as a pass catcher, versus the skill of the linebackers in coverage. Since linebackers are usually the ones tasked with covering backs out of the backfield this makes the most sense. The number I get from this is called "Receiving", clever I know.

Lastly, I give each running back a "Role" number. 1 for primarily rushing, 2 for primarily catching, and 3 for both. Guys like Todd Gurley, David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell get the three numbers. There aren't a lot, and that is why they are such hot commodities in the fantasy world. Guys like Jordan Howard, C.J. Anderson and Marshawn Lynch get the 1 number. And players like Chris Thompson, Duke Johnson and Tarik Cohen get a 2. Based on a player's role I will put more or less emphasis on the rushing or receiving rating. That way we can more accurately compare Chris Thompson's matchup to Marshawn Lynch's matchup. The number I get from this is called "Rating" and is the final number for the matchup.

 

Wide Receivers

Receivers are pretty easy. Thankfully PFF has a WR/CB matchup chart that shows how often a receiver lines up to the left, the right or in the slot. Once I know how often they line up at each position, I can figure out how often they will face each of the defenses corners. This gives a much better representation of their overall outlook, not just the player they will be facing most often as other WR/CB matchup articles do. This forms the "Rating" number which is the overall outlook of their matchup.

 

Tight Ends

Like receivers, tight ends are pretty easy too. Since defense often use both safeties and linebackers to cover tight ends, I compare the skill of the tight end versus the players who he is likely to be covered by. First I compare him to the linebackers. This gives me the "LBRating" number. Then I compare him to the safeties, this gives me the "SafRating". I then average these two numbers to get a look at how his overall matchup looks, this is the "Rating" number. That's it.

 

Conclusion

I hope this helped you better understand how these matchups are determined. Like I said, it is completely unbiased, as I let the data be my guide. If the data says someone has a good matchup that I don't agree with, I may dig deeper, but I never change the numbers. Use these as a guide too, but don't let them be the end all to your decisions. Remember, ultimately it's your team and your decision, and you have to live with it.

But most importantly remember it's just a game, so have fun!

 

More Fantasy Football Articles




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cody Bellinger32 mins ago

Picks Up $27.5 Million Player Option With Cubs
Gerrit Cole43 mins ago

s Opts Out Of Contract With Yankees
Rhys Hoskins3 hours ago

Staying In Milwaukee
4 hours ago

Seattle Declines Club Option On Jorge Polanco
Luke Weaver4 hours ago

Returning To New York
Josh Downs4 hours ago

Cleared To Play In Week 9
Eugenio Suárez4 hours ago

Arizona Picks Up Club Option On Eugenio Suarez
Michael Pittman Jr.4 hours ago

Will Play In Week 9
DK Metcalf4 hours ago

Has Strong Chance To Return In Week 11
Nikolaj Ehlers5 hours ago

Totals Four Points Versus Blue Jackets
Igor Shesterkin6 hours ago

Stops 40 Shots Versus Senators
Aleksander Barkov6 hours ago

Amasses Four Points In Finland
Dan Vladar6 hours ago

Shuts Out Devils Friday Night
Adam Pelech6 hours ago

Makes Early Exit Versus Sabres
Mike Reilly6 hours ago

Exits Friday's Action With Injury
NHL6 hours ago

Nathan Bastian Suffers Jaw Injury On Friday
Jordan Clarkson14 hours ago

Out At Least A Week
Kyle Kuzma14 hours ago

Out Again On Saturday
Jamal Murray14 hours ago

Won't Return On Friday Night
Giannis Antetokounmpo14 hours ago

Anticipated To Play Versus Cleveland
Puka Nacua15 hours ago

Shot To Play Week 9
Jordan Love16 hours ago

Tracking To Play In Week 9
Stephen Curry18 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Yves Missi18 hours ago

Expected To Take The Court Friday
Karl-Anthony Towns18 hours ago

Available On Friday
Eric Comrie18 hours ago

Faces Blue Jackets Friday
Daniel Theis19 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Friday
David Savard19 hours ago

Sits Out Practice For Maintenance Purposes
De'Anthony Melton19 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Jordan Hawkins19 hours ago

Expected To Play Friday
Alexander Romanov19 hours ago

Ready To Play Friday
Al Horford19 hours ago

Resting Against Charlotte
Evgeni Malkin19 hours ago

Takes Maintenance Day On Friday
Andrew Wiggins19 hours ago

Probable For Saturday's Matchup With Houston
Rose Namajunas19 hours ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
D'Angelo Russell19 hours ago

Will Suit Up Versus Toronto
Devon Levi19 hours ago

Returns To Sabres Crease
Clayton Kershaw19 hours ago

To Undergo Two Surgeries
Anthony Davis19 hours ago

Available Against Toronto
Erin Blanchfield19 hours ago

Returns At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Lowe19 hours ago

Rays Pick Up Club Option On Brandon Lowe
Ryan Hartman19 hours ago

Rejoins Wild Lineup Friday
Zach LaVine19 hours ago

Will Play Against Brooklyn
19 hours ago

Nick Martinez Headed To Free Agency
Erik Cernak19 hours ago

Available On Friday
Marc-Andre Barriault19 hours ago

Dustin Stoltzfus Set To Face Marc-Andre Barriault At UFC Edmonton
Brent Suter19 hours ago

Inks Extension With Cincinnati
Immanuel Quickley19 hours ago

Out Again On Friday Night
CJ McCollum19 hours ago

Out At Least Two Weeks
19 hours ago

Yankees, Mets Among Teams In Battle For Juan Soto
Anthony Black20 hours ago

Starting Versus Cleveland
Franz Wagner20 hours ago

Cleared For Friday Night
Herbert Jones20 hours ago

To Miss A Significant Amount Of Time With Shoulder Injury
Marc-Andre Barriault20 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Edmonton
Blake Snell20 hours ago

Opts Out Of Deal With San Francisco
Desmond Bane20 hours ago

Won't Face The 76ers
Josh Jacobs20 hours ago

Questionable For Sunday
Drake Maye20 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
Tyler Boyd21 hours ago

Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd Listed As Questionable
Tyjae Spears21 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Calvin Ridley21 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
Trevin Giles21 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Noah Fant21 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Brian Robinson Jr.21 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
Mike Malott21 hours ago

Opens Up UFC Edmonton Main Card
Dallas Goedert21 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
DK Metcalf21 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Zach Benson22 hours ago

Could Play Next Week
Jani Hakanpaa22 hours ago

And Connor Dewar Sent On Conditioning Stint
Dmitri Voronkov22 hours ago

Ready For Season Debut Friday
Jordan Love22 hours ago

Questionable Vs. Lions
Mathew Barzal22 hours ago

Getting Tests Done For Upper-Body Injury
Vladimir Tarasenko22 hours ago

Ready To Go For Saturday
Mark Stone22 hours ago

Misses Practice Due To Birth Of Child
Puka Nacua23 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Week 9
Will Levis24 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
David Njoku24 hours ago

Good To Go For Week 9
Bucky Irving24 hours ago

Absent During Friday's Practice
David Njoku1 day ago

Returns To Practice On Friday
Adam Thielen1 day ago

Doubtful For Week 9
Tomás Nosek1 day ago

Tomas Nosek Ready For Panthers Debut On Friday
1 day ago

Royals Decline Option On Adam Frazier
1 day ago

Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer Headed To Free Agency
1 day ago

Milwaukee Declines Option On Wade Miley
Lucas Giolito1 day ago

Staying In Boston
Chris Stratton1 day ago

Hunter Renfroe, Chris Stratton Returning To Kansas City
Jordan Montgomery1 day ago

Staying In Arizona
2 days ago

Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn Headed For Free Agency
Roansy Contreras2 days ago

Claimed By Texas
2 days ago

Alex Kirilloff Announces Retirement
Brendson Ribeiro2 days ago

Searching For 1st UFC Win At UFC Edmonton
Caio Machado2 days ago

Drops Down To Light Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Jhonata Diniz2 days ago

Gets Big Step-Up At UFC Edmonton
Derrick Lewis2 days ago

Faces An Unranked Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Amir Albazi2 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Ends Layoff At UFC Edmonton
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Comes Up Short at Homestead
William Byron5 days ago

Rallies to Sixth at Homestead
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Tire Issue at Homestead Could Doom Kyle Larson's Championship Hopes
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Charges To A Thrilling Victory At Homestead
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Loses At Homestead On The Final Corner To Tyler Reddick
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Quietly Nabs A Top-5 Finish At Homestead
Khamzat Chimaev5 days ago

Remains Undefeated
Robert Whittaker5 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 308
Aleksandar Rakic5 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 308
Armen Petrosyan5 days ago

Knocked Out At UFC 308
Shara Magomedov5 days ago

Gets Highlight-Reel Knockout Win At UFC 308
Joey Logano5 days ago

Intentionally Sleepwalked Through Homestead to Focus on Phoenix
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Advances to Championship 4 as Owner but Not as Driver
Dan Ige6 days ago

Loses Second-Straight Fight At UFC 308
Lerone Murphy6 days ago

Remains Undefeated At UFC 308
Magomed Ankalaev6 days ago

Wins Lackluster Decision Win At UFC 308
Max Holloway6 days ago

Gets Knocked Out For First Time At UFC 308

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Keon Coleman - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Key Starters and Tough Calls - Week 9 Lineup Spotlights for Fantasy Football Include Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, Joe Flacco

Scott Engel’s Lineup Spotlights are an essential weekly feature on RotoBaller.com for the 2024 fantasy football season. Every week, he focuses on players to choose as starting options when you are dealing with tight lineup decisions. The lineup picks included in this rundown are based on Scott’s Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller […]


Ladd McConkey - Fantasy Football Rankings, Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 9 - Terry McLaurin, Chris Olave, Ladd McConkey, Jakobi Meyers

Welcome to WR Matchups to Target for Week 9. Last week’s picks yielded one “in the money” pick (3x multiplier on DraftKings salary) in Keon Coleman, giving us 11 such picks over the first eight weeks of the season. Each week, we will use matchup data from PFF to determine which wide receivers to target […]


Brian Thomas Jr - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Who Should I Start? Sunday Fantasy Football Lineup Decisions for Week 9 (2024) - Diontae Johnson, Keon Coleman, Jalen Tolbert, Brian Thomas, Jakobi Myers, Brian Robinson, Keenan Allen, Tee Higgins, Bo Nix

It's almost time for Sunday football. Who Should I Start? Who Should I Sit? Set your optimal fantasy football lineups for Sunday football and Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season. Our free Who Should I Start? tool will help make your fantasy football lineup decisions. Compare up to four NFL players, and we tell […]


Bryce Young - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

High-Upside Bench Stashes: Weekend Waiver Wire Adds for Week 9 Includes Jalen Coker, Troy Franklin, Jaylen Wright, Erick All Jr., Kimani Vidal, Blake Corum

Mastering the waiver wire is a crucial skill that can lead you to a fantasy football championship. It's not just about strategically placing your FAAB budget on specific players but also about knowing when to stash players. This dual strategy keeps you engaged and focused on your ultimate goal of winning a fantasy championship. As […]


Video: Week 9 Booms, Sleepers, and Streamers - 2024 Fantasy Football Start 'Em Analysis

Let's go, RotoBallers! We are back and dropping fire content for the weekend ahead with our top Week 9 booms, sleepers, and streamers! NFL Network and RotoBaller contributor LaQuan Jones gives in-depth fantasy football advice, breaking down some of his high-upside, sleeper, and value plays as we head into Week 9 of the new fantasy […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Buy Low, Sell High Week 9 Fantasy Football Trade Value Recommendations - Josh Downs, Chris Olave, Cedric Tillman, more

Welcome to Week 9 of the NFL season! We’re deep into the grind where every decision counts more than ever. With injuries piling up and bye weeks affecting lineups, knowing when to buy low or sell high can be the key to revitalizing your team. Whether riding high after a win or looking to bounce […]


Jameis Winston - NFL DFS Picks, Waiver Wire, Fantasy Football Rankings

Week 9 Superflex 2QB Rankings for Fantasy Football: Updates for Jameis Winston, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Drake Maye

With quarterbacks beginning to get benched or banged up, some backup quarterbacks are entering lineups and have become viable in Superflex and two-QB leagues. Our Week 9 fantasy football Superflex rankings (2QB) for 2024 are here to help you close start-or-sit calls between comparable options. Below, you can see where RotoBaller has key Superflex options […]


Bucky Irving - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings (2024) - Week 9 Updates Include Rhamondre Stevenson, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Bucky Irving

Incredibly, Week 9 has already kicked off, and Thursday's game is already in the books. It's time to start reviewing your dynasty leagues to decide whether to make a run for the championship or sell off for next year. There were some big trades in the NFL recently, with DeAndre Hopkins heading to Kansas City […]


Chris Olave - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 9 PPR Rankings for Fantasy Football: Overall Updates Include Marvin Harrison, Chris Olave, Amari Cooper, Jayden Reed, Rachaad White, Nick Chubb

The Week 9 slate brings a must-win situation to many fantasy managers, so it's time to lock in and set optimal fantasy football lineups. Below, you'll see our NFL team's updated Week 9 fantasy football PPR rankings for 2024. Let's see where key players like Cooper Kupp, T.J. Hockenson, Jaylen Waddle, Tank Bigsby, Jalen McMillan, […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 9 FLEX Rankings for Fantasy Football (RB, WR, TE) - Updates Include Jalen McMillan, Xavier Worthy, Calvin Ridley, Josh Downs, Kareem Hunt, DJ Moore

The fantasy football playoffs will be here before we know it, so if you need a few wins to secure your spot and are looking for lineup advice, you have come to the right place. We're here to help with our NFL team's updated Week 9 fantasy football FLEX rankings for 2024. Comparing two flex […]


Chase Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Week 9 Running Back Rankings for Fantasy Football: RB Updates Include Tank Bigsby, Chuba Hubbard, Tyrone Tracy, Chase Brown, Rico Dowdle, JK Dobbins

The running back position has seemingly been the most consistent in fantasy football this season, but things can change in a hurry, so it's important to set optimal lineups each week. Let's get to crucial start-or-sit decisions with help from our updated Week 9 fantasy football running back rankings for 2024. Where do key RBs […]


Cedric Tillman - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 9 Wide Receiver Rankings for Fantasy Football: WR Updates Include Cedric Tillman, Darnell Mooney, Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs, Jaylen Waddle, more

Ahead of the Week 9 NFL slate, the wide receiver position is the deepest in fantasy football, but that can lead to troubling start-or-sit decisions, especially when comparing two flex-level WR options. We're here to assist with our NFL team's updated Week 9 fantasy football wide receiver rankings for 2024. Let's dive into the rankings […]


Cole Kmet - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

Week 9 Tight End Rankings for Fantasy Football: TE Updates Include Cade Otton, Cole Kmet, Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, David Njoku, Tucker Kraft, Sam LaPorta

Tight ends showed out last week on National Tight End Day, so hopefully, the momentum continues for the tough position to analyze and navigate. Below, you'll see our NFL team's updated Week 9 fantasy football tight end rankings for 2024 to help you make tough start-or-sit decisions. Let's dig into the rankings to find out […]