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What's up RotoBallers. Below you will find part one of our Week 9 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Ben Ruppert breaks down the first half of the Week 9 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis by Pierre Camus (@pfunk00).
Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.
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Week 8 Matchup Analysis Recap
Greatest Hits: Melvin Gordon (RB, SD), Jordan Matthews (WR, PHI), Ryan Mathews (RB, PHI)
Melvin Gordon was able to find plenty of running room against the Broncos defense, lighting them up for 155 total yards on 27 touches. The Broncos defense is legit, but when it comes to stopping the run they leave much to be desired. Jordan Matthews was able to have a good day while the Eagles passed to keep up with the Cowboys; he caught 11-of-14 targets for 65 yards and a TD on the day. Though his longest catch on Sunday was only 13 yards, he was still able to be productive, especially in PPR formats. Ryan Mathews on the other hand, had a game to forget. I did not think he would do well, but I did not expect him to get totally phased out of the offense. He only received four carries for 10 yards, and was dominated in snaps by Darren Sproles.
Greatest Misses: Quincy Enunwa (WR, NYJ), Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL), Jordy Nelson (WR, GB)
Quincy Enunwa was able to lead the Jets in receiving yards on Sunday, catching four passes for 93 yards and a score. Ryan Fitzpatrick was inefficient on the day completing only 47% of his passes, so if that number can improve a bit good days will be ahead for Enunwa. Freeman had the backfield all to himself without Tevin Coleman, but fell flat on his face. he rushed 11 times for only 35 yards, and caught four passes for 23 yard. A TD saved his fantasy day, but I expected much more from Freeman last week. Nelson found pay dirt last week, catching four passes for 94 yards and a short 5-yard TD in the Packers loss to Atlanta. After he was out-produced by Davante Adams the week prior, I expected more of the same last week. Adams did well catching 12 passes for 74 yards, but was unable to find the end zone like Nelson did.
Lions @ Vikings - Sunday 11/6 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Theo Riddick (RB, DET)
Theo Riddick has been one of the best pass-catching RBs in the league once again this season, hauling in 34 receptions (tied for second overall among RBs) for 267 yards. What has separated himself this season is his nose for the end zone, with a league leading (among RBs) four reception TDs. Though the stiff Vikings defense has only allowed opposing RBs to rush for 80 yards per game on average, their big weakness plays right to Riddick’s strengths. They have allowed 54 receiving yards to RBs on average this season, sixth most in the league. His rushing totals may not look pretty, but Riddick will more than be able to make up for it with a high yardage total in the receiving game.
Kyle Rudolph (TE, MIN)
One team trumps all when it comes to allowing fantasy points to the TE position. That team is the Detroit Lions. On average, they allow opposing TEs to catch six passes for 65 yards and a score per game. The Vikings have a pretty good TE with Kyle Rudolph, whose three TDs this season put him tied for fourth among all TEs, one behind the league lead. After scoring three straight weeks from Weeks 2-to-4, he has gone three straight weeks without a score. This matchup provides the right recipe for Rudolph to get back in the end zone, as long as the offensive line can provide Sam Bradford with a little bit of protection. Look for Bradford to look for his favorite target often.
Matchups We Hate
Marvin Jones Jr. (WR, DET)
The Vikings have made a habit out of stopping opposing WRs this season, limiting them to the second least fantasy points against. In Week 1 Tajae Sharpe gained 76 receiving yards on seven receptions; both of those numbers are the most against the Minnesota secondary this season. Marvin Jones is coming off of his worst fantasy performance of the season, a three catch 33-yard performance against the Texans. His involvement in the offense has dipped over the past few weeks with the re-emergence of Golden Tate, only eclipsing the 40-yard mark once over the past four weeks. Things will not come easy to him this week against a top defense; sit Jones this week if you have other options available.
Jerick McKinnon (RB, MIN)
Jerick McKinnon is expected to be back for the Vikings this week, after missing last week’s game with an ankle injury. The Lions defense is nothing to write home about, but their run defense has done well this season. They have allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. Not only have they not allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 4, they have only allowed one rushing TD all season long. McKinnon returns to an offense with a struggling offensive line, and is still stuck in a timeshare with Matt Asiata. With Asiata controlling the goal line touches and taking some work in the passing game, chances for McKinnon to thrive will be limited.
Notable Players
Sam Bradford (QB, MIN)
Detroit has allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, allowing 272 passing yards and two TDs per game on average. For an offense that is clicking, this is a dream matchup. However, the Vikings have had some troubles protecting Sam Bradford over the past two weeks (both road losses). Bradford has averaged only 226 yards and a TD over the past two weeks, and has been sacked 11 times over that span. With the Vikings heading back home and McKinnon back in the fold things may be different, but I wouldn’t want to rely on Bradford this week with the offense slipping of late.
Steelers @ Ravens - Sunday 11/6 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Antonio Brown (WR, PIT)
Antonio Brown owners should be salivating for this matchup with the Ravens. Baltimore has allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season, and have allowed at least one receiving TD every week except for Week 1 against the Bills. Perhaps the best news of all for Brown owners, is that all signs are pointing to starting QB Ben Roethlisberger returning to action and playing this week. Though the Landry Jones-to-Brown connection looked good in their one game played together, having Big Ben back helps the entire offense. Brown is locked in as a WR1 this week and the rest of the season.
Terrance West (RB, BAL)
The Steelers have been good at taking away opposing teams WR1s this season, but have struggled to limit the production of opposing RBs. The Steelers have allowed 100 yards rushing and 61 receiving yards per game on average this season, allowing the fourth most fantasy points to opposing RBs. West had a tough game against the Jets before the bye week, rushing eight times for 10 yards. In the three weeks prior to that game, West had averaged 98 yards rushing and 10 receiving yards per game. Head coach John Harbaugh said he would like to get RB Kenneth Dixon some more work this week, but he will not usurp West from the starting role by any means. Start West against a weak Steelers defense this week.
Matchups We Hate
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)
Big Ben Roethlisberger will make his return to action on Sunday, just over two weeks after undergoing surgery to repair a torn left meniscus. Unfortunately for Ben, his return comes during the week the Steelers travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. Not only has Roethlisberger been statistically worse on the road in his career compared to at home, the interdivisional matchup with the Ravens has proven to be a difficult one. In his career against the Ravens (17 games), he has completed 59.8% of his passes with a 3:2 TD:INT ratio. He has been sacked a whopping 50 times in those 17 games played. In what’s sure to be an absolute slug fest, keep expectations in check for Roethlisberger.
Le’Veon Bell (RB, PIT)
If you own Bell, you’re starting him with confidence each and every week. This week things are no different, though it is worth noting this is going to be a difficult matchup for the talented RB. Baltimore has given up the sixth fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, limiting them to only 73 yards rushing per game. However, when you have a RB as talented as Bell in all phases of the game, he will be nearly impossible to stop. Even if he can’t find holes in the running game, Bell can line up in the slot as a WR and gain yardage that way. He is a solid start this week, even with a less than ideal matchup.
Notable Players
Mike Wallace (WR, BAL)
Wallace has taken hold of the WR1 spot in Baltimore, leading the team with 61 targets through their first seven games played. Over the past three games he has been especially good with the absence of Steve Smith Sr., averaging seven catches on 11 targets for 93 yards. Unfortunately for Wallace, the Steelers have allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. It will be tough to limit Wallace’s production if he continues to get over 10 targets per game, but not many teams can stop WRs like the Steelers.
Jets @ Dolphins - Sunday 11/6 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Matt Forte (RB, NYJ)
It looks like the Jets have remembered how to utilize Matt Forte in their offensive game plan. It’s a simple formula; feed Forte and you’ll win. Don’t, and you won’t. They lost four straight games with Forte averaging only 14 touches per game. They have won their past two games with Forte averaging 31 touches. He has four TDs in the past two games, after scoring none in the four weeks prior. Though Miami has allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, they have allowed 107 rushing yards per game; fifth highest in the league. Volume along will make Forte a strong play each week (as long as the Jets continue to feed him), and a good matchup makes this week even juicier for the RB.
Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA)
Easily the most relied upon WR in the offense, Jarvis Landry faces his easiest competition of the 2016 season this week against the Jets. The Jets defense has given up the fourth most points to opposing WRs this season, The 198 yards of production from opposing WRs per game they allow puts them second in the league behind the Carolina Panthers (201 YPG). Fresh off of the bye week, the PPR machine will be refreshed and ready to go. The new found rushing attack for Miami will only open up more passing lanes for QB Ryan Tannehill, meaning Landry is a great option this week and moving forward.
Matchups We Hate
Jay Ajayi (RB, MIA)
After rushing for 200-yards for two straight weeks, Ajayi finds himself among some elite company; the only other players to have a two game stretch like this are O.J. Simpson, Earl Campbell, and Ricky Williams. Ajayi has achieved something extremely rare. If you own him, you’re riding this hot hand until it cools off. This matchup with the Jets isn’t the best, but two weeks ago he was able to tear a stout Bills defense apart. To this point the Jets have allowed opposing RBs to rush for 68.5 YPG this season, the lowest mark in the league. Hate the matchup, love the player this week.
Notable Players
Brandon Marshall (WR, NYJ)
Marshall has a great chance to find success against one of his former teams in Miami. The Dolphins have given up the 10th most fantasy points to the WR position this season, and were most recently lit up by Bills WR Marquise Goodwin. Marshall has been an elite talent since he entered the league; the only thing holding him back now is the play of his QB. Over the past three weeks since his last breakout game, Marshall has caught passes from both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith. He has only averaged three receptions over those weeks, despite seeing about eight targets per game. If Fitz can give the Jets some competent QB play things will look good for Marshall on Sunday. However, if the inaccuracy continues it will be a long day for the Jets WRs.
Cowboys @ Browns - Sunday 11/6 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Dez Bryant (WR, DAL)
Dez Bryant made his return to the Cowboys last week and did not disappoint, catching four passes for 113 yards while scoring a game-tying TD in the fourth quarter. Those four catches came from a whopping 14 targets, which was twice as much as any other receiver received. Dez is an immensely talented option for Dak Prescott, and will normally do better than a 4-of-14 performance. While he certainly made the most out of those four catches, his game could have been even bigger. This week against Cleveland he has another great shot at a big game; they have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Play Bryant with confidence.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
Even though he was unable to keep his 130-yard rushing streak last week, he was still able to gain 148 all-purpose yards against a tough Eagles defense. Elliott is as elite as they come at the RB position. This week the Cowboys travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns, who have not shared in the success of Cleveland sports franchises of late. They have been abysmal against the run, giving up the third most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Barring some type of literal brick wall appearing on the field, there is no way they will be able to stop Elliott behind the best offensive line in the league. As always, fire him up with extreme confidence.
Matchups We Hate
Isaiah Crowell (RB, CLE)
The lead back on the opposite side of the field will have more troubles than Elliott will this Sunday. Isaiah Crowell has seen his production dip over the past four weeks; his average stat line is 11 rushes for 33 yards. TDs in each of the past two weeks have helps salvage his fantasy value, but this is a RB who just can’t get anything going on the ground right now. The Cowboys have been one of the best at stopping the run this season, allowing the second-least fantasy points to the RB position. Crowell is in line for a disappointing, TD dependent game. He should only be played if you’re in a tough bye-week pickle.
Notable Players
Corey Coleman (WR, CLE)
Corey Coleman makes his return to the Browns WR corps this week. The rookie WR has only played in two games this season, after breaking his hand during practice before the Browns Week 3 game. Coleman should be at full-go, since he has been able to keep up his conditioning despite the hand injury. In his last game (Week 2), Coleman caught five passes for 104 yards and two scores. The young WR is certainly talented. Paired with emerging stud Terrelle Pryor, the two make a great WR combo for whoever plays QB for the Browns. Dallas has been a middle of the pack defense against opposing WRs this season. With the Browns likely needing to throw to keep up, Coleman is a very interesting play this week.
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Dak has remained the starting QB for the time being in Dallas, and draws a great matchup this week against Cleveland. The Browns have given up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. Prescott has done a good job fantasy-wise this season, limiting his mistakes while dealing out some damage with his legs as well. If this game gets out of hand early, expect to see more of Elliott than Prescott, but regardless Prescott should find his way to a solid performance.
Eagles @ Giants - Sunday 11/6 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Jordan Matthews (WR, PHI)
Jordan Matthews and the Eagles passing attack has been less-than stellar so far this season, but this matchup with the Giants should give them a reason to throw the ball around the yard. Matthews has seen an inconsistent number of targets this season, with a floor of three (Week 3) and a ceiling of 14 (Weeks 1 and 8). Last week he turned those 14 targets into 11 catches for 65 yards and a TD as the Eagles tried to keep up with the Dallas offense. The Giants defense has been good this season, but they give up 194 yards per game to opposing WRs, the fifth highest total in the league. The highest targeted member of the Eagles should be able to find success once again this week.
Matchups We Hate
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR. NYG)
The Eagles passing defense has been one of the better units in the league, allowing the 10th fewest fantasy points to the WR position. Before last week, they had not allowed a 100-yard receiver since Week 3 (Antonio Brown). If the Eagles can successfully cover OBJ, QB Eli Manning will have no problems turning to Sterling Shepard or Victor Cruz to look for production. Beckham is one of those elite players you never sit, but this is a matchup you temper your expectations for.
Ryan Mathews (RB, PHI)
Ryan Mathews has been the starter all season long for the Eagles when healthy, but his role took a serious hit last week. With the Eagles in passing mode it was Darren Sproles who was on the field much more often than Mathews, with Sproles seeing 80% of the snaps compared to Mathews’ 11%. Kenyon Barner and Wendell Smallwood also got carries on Sunday. The Giants have only allowed 87.4 yards rushing per game on average this season, and have allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points to the RB position this season. Moving forward it’s safe to say Mathews is an extremely risky play.
Notable Players
Darren Sproles (RB, PHI)
It remains to be seen how the RB position will shake out for the Eagles this week, but one thing we know for sure is that Darren Sproles will be the primary pass-catching back at the very least. Last week he got 15 carries and 20 total touches, both of which are the most he had received this season. Even if Sproles doesn’t remain the primary RB this week, he will be hugely important in the Eagles passing game. Anyone in this backfield makes for a risky play this week.
Rashad Jennings (RB, NYG)
Rashad Jennings returned to the Giants before their bye week, after missing three weeks with a thumb injury. He was not particularly effective, rushing 13 times for 25 yards and a short TD, while catching two passes for 24 yards against the Rams in London. Coming out of the bye week Jennings will be 100% healthy, but may lose some carries due to his inefficient play to rookie RB Paul Perkins, who rushed four times for 12 yards in the same game. Philadelphia has a middling rushing defense, so whoever gets the majority of the carries should have a good game. Figuring out how this RB carousel will shake out will be difficult though.
Jaguars @ Chiefs - Sunday 11/6 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Charcandrick West (RB, KC)
Charcandrick West will be replacing the injured Spencer Ware this week, while he deals with a concussion. West was effective as a runner last season in wake of the injury to Jamaal Charles, and the Chiefs will not be afraid to give him plenty of work. The potential is here for West to see over 20 touches, with the Chiefs favored at home. The only other RB on the roster is Bishop Sankey, who is no threat at all to West’s playing time. Play him if you were able to pick him up at some point this season. He will be a strong play for as long as Ware is out recovering.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
If you’re looking for a bye week fill-in for your WR or flex spot, look no further than Tyreek Hill. While it is extremely difficult to trust any Chiefs WR, Hill has gained some traction over the past few weeks as a go-to deep threat. Hill has TDs in three of the past four weeks, and even hauled in a rare Alex Smith deep ball in Week 7 for a 38-yard score. Last week with Nick Foles at the helm, Hill caught five passes for 98 yards and a TD. Foles will be starting at QB again this week, against a Jaguars defense giving up the ninth most fantasy points to the WR position. Hill is an extremely interesting deeper league option this week, who could pay big dividends even in DFS leagues.
Allen Hurns (WR, JAX)
The Kansas City Chiefs have given up the eighth most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season, allowing a total of 186 yards per game to the position. Since Allen Robinson has been unable to take a step forward in his production this season, the recommended play this week is Allen Hurns. Hurns led the team in receiving last week, catching seven passes for 98 yards and a TD. Since the bye week, Hurns and Robinson have both seen 29 targets, with Hurns turning those into 16 catches for 217 yards, compared to Robinson’s 11 catches for 128 yards. If you have to choose one Jags WR to play, go with Hurns and don’t think twice about it.
Matchups We Hate
T.J. Yeldon/Chris Ivory (RB, JAX)
Behind a weak offensive line, both of these RBs have had trouble al season getting much of anything going on the ground. Last game the two RBs combined for seven rushes for 26 yards. The Jags defense is still pretty sub-par, meaning this team finds themselves in passing situations more often than not. The two cut into each other’s production, limiting their fantasy effectiveness. You should only be playing one of these backs if you are in an extremely desperate spot as a fantasy owner. This is a backfield to completely avoid this week and every week until one player sets himself apart.
Notable Players
Jeremy Maclin (WR, KC)
Jeremy Maclin has been extremely disappointing from a fantasy perspective this season, but is still the most heavily targeted WR in the Chiefs offense. Last week he got the most targets he had received in a game since Week 2 with 10 on the day, turning those into three catches for 43 yards and his first TD since Week 1. Nick Foles at QB may help Maclin since he is less of a game-manager, but Maclin still makes for a risky play.
