RADIO
Last week’s Buy/Sell column was published the morning of the 16th. That didn’t give you time to trade Mike Leake before he got destroyed by the Giants that afternoon (while wearing that Reds/2015/05/16/giants-vs-reds-may-16/27471573/">horrendous jersey, no less), but hopefully you were persuaded to bench him. Meanwhile, Michael Wacha and Julio Teheran tossed gems. I encourage you to take advantage by divesting yourselves of them post-haste.
But enough about all that. We must look forward, not backward! Upward, not forward! And always twirling, twirling, twirling toward freedom! On to this week’s buys and sells.
Starting Pitcher Buys for Week 8
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
We all know what Kershaw's capabilities. There’s a reason he was probably the only pitcher taken in the first round or required the most expensive bid in your league. After a loss to the Giants on Thursday in which he gave up a home run to Madison Bumgarner, however, he has a thoroughly uninspiring 4.32 ERA. That’s over half a run higher than his 2013 and 2014 marks added together. As you might expect, Kershaw has been much better than that number implies. His BABIP, strand rate and homer rate are all out of whack. That’s cold comfort to his owners, though, and the less statistically inclined among them may be willing to let him go. The price will still be steep – just not as steep as it should be. If you aren’t trying to trade for Kershaw right now, you’re crazy.
Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals
Gonzalez’s last two efforts haven’t been great. He allowed 11 runs in 10 innings, raising his ERA to 4.94. The only appreciable change in his profile, though, is one we normally consider good - he’s inducing a ton of ground balls. Unfortunately, the Nationals have been shaky in the field, which has contributed to an inflated .371 BABIP for Gonzalez. Bet on that number falling and the southpaw’s results reflecting the fact that he’s essentially pitching at the same level he has for a few years now.
Jose Quintana, Chicago Sox
Chris Sale pitched himself right off this list with a pair of gems in his last two starts, though his name value and track record probably made getting him at a discount unlikely anyway. After an awful start to the year, his teammate Quintana has righted the ship. His most recent turn against the Indians wasn’t pretty, but it was the fifth straight game in which Quintana allowed two runs or fewer. His peripherals now look remarkably similar to last season. The ERA still hasn’t quite recovered. Combine that with Quintana being generally underrated and you may have yourself a buying opportunity.
Starting Pitcher Sells for Week 8
Hector Santiago, Los Angeles Angels
Since transitioning to the rotation as a member of the White Sox in 2013, Santiago has been a perfectly serviceable back-end starter. He’s also outperformed his FIP over that time. But he has taken that to a new level so far this season, pitching to a 2.25 ERA despite peripherals that indicate he’s essentially the same pitcher. Once his BABIP and strand rate regress to the mean, Santiago will return to being a stream option at best. If you can find someone to buy the mirage, make it happen.
Nick Martinez, Texas Rangers
Uninspiring track record? Check. Lack of pedigree? Check. Putrid strikeout rate? Check. Unsustainable home run rate? Check. Lousy team? Check. Shiny ERA? Check. Hard to see anything but harsh, unforgiving regression in this kid’s future. Check, please.
Shelby Miller, Atlanta Braves
Miller was identified as a prime sell in this space two weeks ago, and not much has changed. He continues to lead baseball in ERA-FIP, with a difference of nearly two full runs. His BABIP still sits below the Mendoza line at an absurd .183. His strand rate is hovering just below 90 percent. Again, despite all of that he’s clearly pitching better than he did for most of last season. He’s racking up more strikeouts and ground balls while allowing fewer walks and line drives. You could do worse than letting it ride, here. But we’re in the business of maximizing return on investment, and the best way to do that would be to sell before the inevitable return to earth.
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