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Welcome back to our weekly DFS column here at RotoBaller! In this piece, I will examine my top and contrarian plays for the late slate in Week 7 of the NFL season.
This week, we have only three games to choose from, so it is important to be exposed to some of the popular options.
These DFS lineup recommendations are based on matchups, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, salary, and factors such as home-field advantage, implied point totals, and more. Good luck with your DraftKings and FanDuel DFS lineups. Let's dominate this late slate together!
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Quarterbacks - Week 7 DFS Picks
Top Play: Jayden Daniels- CAR vs. WAS (DK: $7,600/ FD: $9,100)
The reigning Heisman Trophy winner will be a popular chalk option on the slate, and rightfully so, as he has the highest upside of any player.
Since Week 3, Daniels has averaged 26.2 PPR points per game with 248.5 passing yards and 47.5 rushing yards per game. He scored eight total touchdowns during this span and turned the ball over twice. In addition, he boasts an incredible 75.2% completion rate.
Jayden Daniels just hit a 41-yard TD to Dyami Brown.
The #Commanders are so fun to watch. What a time in DC. pic.twitter.com/tlBbcMYXfz https://t.co/B2R8V7fsU3
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 6, 2024
This weekend, he faces a Carolina secondary that has allowed the 14th-most PPR points to opposing quarterbacks. Daniels could be in store for another big performance.
Contrarian Play: Matthew Stafford- LV vs. LAR (DK: $5,600/ FD: $7,100)
My budget option is Matthew Stafford. Stafford has had a down year through no fault of his own, as his top wideouts, Cooper Kupp (ankle) and Puka Nacua (knee), have missed most of the season.
However, Kupp may return this weekend, raising Stafford’s ceiling considerably. In the opening week with Kupp, Stafford eclipsed 300 passing yards and scored 19.9 PPR points. The 36-year-old can hit this production on Sunday, facing a Las Vegas defense that allowed 25.2 PPR points to rookie Bo Nix two weeks ago.
Note: Kupp logged a limited practice on Wednesday. If Kupp does not suit up, Andy Dalton is also a viable contrarian option against a very susceptible Washington pass defense.
Running Backs - Week 7 DFS Picks
Top Play: Kyren Williams- LV vs. LAR (DK: $8,100/ FD: $8,600)
The Notre Dame product has been the most stable option in the Los Angeles offense this season and faces a very favorable matchup on Sunday against the Raiders.
The Raiders have allowed the sixth-most PPR points this season, which should provide Williams ample opportunities to get on the scoresheet.
KYREN WILLIAMS FRONT FLIPS FOR THE TD 🔥
📺: #SFvsLAR on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/B3woypwrfY— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
The 24-year-old has carried the ball at least 18 times and caught at least two passes in all but one game this season. In such a small slate, it can be hard to avoid the “chalk” option, but it is hard to pass it up when the matchup is this favorable.
Top Play: Brian Robinson Jr. - CAR vs. WAS (DK: $6,400/ FD: $8,000)
Brian Robinson Jr. (knee) was held out of action last weekend but looks to be on track to return to action this weekend against Carolina.
Robinson has been a force at the goal line for the Commanders, as he has scored five touchdowns across the five games he has played in. In addition, he has eclipsed double-digit carries in all but one game.
The Panthers allowed Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to run all over them last weekend for 200 combined yards. If Robinson suits up, he should be in for a big day.
Note: Robinson was a limited participant in Wednesday's initial practice. If Robinson does not suit up, Austin Ekeler becomes a viable option, as he should see plenty of work on the ground, while Jeremy McNichols should get a slight boost in opportunities.
Contrarian Play: Alexander Mattison- LV vs. LAR (DK: $5,500/ FD: $6,100)
Finding a “sneaky” running back option on a small slate like this is difficult. However, Alexander Mattison should be poised for another hefty workload on Sunday, which makes him a great value play.
His offensive situation is less than ideal with Davante Adams’ recent departure. Nonetheless, volume is critical when evaluating running back success, and Mattison fits the bill.
Last weekend, even though the Raiders offense struggled, he still managed to score 17.5 PPR points. The 26-year-old found the end zone and tallied 33 yards on 14 carries. He added 32 yards off five receptions.
Zamir White (groin) could return this weekend, but I do not expect him to affect Mattison’s workload significantly.
The matchup against the Rams is much better, as they have allowed the 26th-most points to opposing running backs. If you want a high-volume option at a cheaper price, go with Mattison.
Wide Receivers - Week 7 DFS Picks
Top Play: Terry McLaurin- CAR vs. WAS (DK: $6,800/ FD: $7,200)
Terry McLaurin has (finally) enjoyed his true breakout campaign with rookie Jayden Daniels at the helm. Since Week 3, McLaurin has averaged an impressive 19.2 PPR points per game and found the back of the end zone four times.
Terry McLaurin makes an INSANE adjustment to the off target pass to put the Commanders in the end zone. Tie game in Baltimore pic.twitter.com/Kjcg76QPXL
— Streameast News Network (@StreameastNews) October 13, 2024
He has seen 25.9% of the team’s targets and holds an impressive 14.1 yards of average depth per target. McLaurin is almost matchup-proof, but facing a weak Carolina secondary makes him even more favorable this weekend.
Top Play: JuJu Smith-Schuster- KC vs. SF (DK: $4,000/ FD: $6,100)
With the Chiefs' Rashee Rice (knee) sidelined, many expected rookie Xavier Worthy to see a hefty dose of targets his way. However, the 27-year-old journeyman saw an eye-catching eight targets in the Monday night victory in Week 5. This was second on the team behind only Travis Kelce.
Smith-Schuster could see another heavy workload in a game in which Kansas City will likely be forced to keep up against a potent San Francisco offense.
Given the one-game sample size, this risk is there, but the price for a potential double-digit target game is too low not to roll the dice on. On DraftKings, Smith-Schuster is sitting at a great value while FanDuel has him more appropriately priced.
Contrarian Play: Jauan Jennings- KC vs. SF (DK: $4,600/ FD: $5,300)
Jennings has taken a back seat since his Week 3 breakout, during which he found the end zone three times, gained 175 yards, and had 11 receptions. Since Week 4, the No. 3 wideout in the San Francisco passing attack has averaged just 2.3 receptions in each game with 18.3 yards.
However, in a game that is projected to be high-scoring (47 points total), Jennings could be relied upon more than he has in the past. In addition, running back Jordan Mason (shoulder) is banged up but should be expected to suit up. However, we could see a slight drop in volume.
Jennings is a high-risk option, but if you would rather grab two elite running backs, he is a budget option with a decent ceiling.
Contrarian Play: Noah Brown- CAR vs. WAS (DK: $4,000/ FD: $5,000)
My other budget option has a slightly higher floor than Jennings. After sitting out in Week 5, Brown returned to action in Week 6 and saw a team-high eight targets. He caught four of them for a season-high 58 yards.
During Weeks 2-4, Brown caught three passes in every game and emerged as the second-best option opposite Terry McLaurin. Facing a weak Carolina secondary, Brown could have his long-awaited breakout that has been building over the past month.
Tight Ends - Week 7 DFS Picks
Top Play: Travis Kelce - KC vs. SF (DK: $6,300/ FD: $7,100)
There are three elite tight ends on this small slate, and you can make a case for choosing George Kittle or Brock Bowers, but I slightly lean in favor of Travis Kelce.
The 35-year-old started the campaign slowly but has caught at least seven passes in each of the past two games and averaged 9.5 targets per game.
Without Rashee Rice (knee), Patrick Mahomes will look his tight end’s way quite often, which should provide him with the safest floor at the position and the upside for double-digit reception performances.
Contrarian Play: Ja'Tavion Sanders - CAR vs. WAS (DK: $2,900/ FD: $4,900)
The 21-year-old has slowly begun to surpass Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas as the top option on the depth chart. Over the past two weeks, Sanders has seen at least five targets in each game and is coming off a career-high five-catch, 49-yard performance in Week 6.
With the Panthers likely to be trailing this game, Sanders could be a sneaky option over Carolina wideouts like Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette.
Defense/Special Teams - Week 7 DFS Picks
Top Play: Los Angeles Rams - LV vs. LAR (DK: $3,000/ FD: $4,100)
The Rams will be the chalk play on this slate, and it is hard not to see why. Aidan O'Connell threw for a pedestrian 227 yards with one score and an interception last weekend against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Throughout the season, the Raiders have been the third-most favorable matchup for opposing defenses. Los Angeles should provide a safe floor and have the highest upside to allow the fewest points on the slate.
Contrarian Play: Las Vegas Raiders - LV vs. LAR (DK: $2,700/ FD: $3,300)
If Cooper Kupp is unable to suit up, the Las Vegas defense could come into play as a budget option.
The Rams have been held to under 20 points in three of their past four games and could face similar troubles without their top wideout.
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