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There are seven games on this week’s early slate, highlighted by the Houston Texans visiting the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions heading to Minnesota to face the surprising Vikings. This week, a lot of ownership will center around those games, giving opportunities to jump the field in tournaments by getting contrarian with other games on the slate.
This article will focus not just on those chalk games but also on plays from other games that can help differentiate your lineups. There is a ton of value to be found on this slate, either as a one-off or as part of mini-stacks, allowing you to spend up on some of the bigger studs like Justin Jefferson or Bijan Robinson.
I’m excited for Week 7, and my goal is to create a hierarchy of plays so you know who to prioritize when building your lineups! Remember that this article is written early in the week, so please check in with our Discord for any updates as practice reports come in throughout the week and a clearer picture starts to come into view. Also, check out our other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big!
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Quarterbacks - Week 7 DFS Picks
Top Play: Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers - $6.9K DK, $8.7K FD)
What quarterback is playing better than Jordan Love right now? He has played in four games and has thrown for at least two touchdowns in every single one of them, including two games with four touchdown passes.
This game feels like a massive shootout, meaning we could see Love put the ball up over 40 times. Given the makeup of his receiving corps, it is easy to double-stack him. If Jayden Reed were to miss the game, you would be left with Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson as an inexpensive pair with high upside.
Houston is a perfect team for bring-back plays as it has four viable options: Joe Mixon, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, or even Dalton Schultz as a value tight end. Using Love as the centerpiece of a Packers stack will allow you to come back with a strong secondary stack and maybe even a higher-end one-off.
This will be a popular game, but you can get different with how you configure your pass-catchers or with your secondary stack to offset the expected high ownership of these players.
Jordan Love is tied for 2nd in the NFL with 12 passing touchdowns.
He missed two games. pic.twitter.com/PAxZ32zElx
— Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) October 13, 2024
Contrarian Play: Sam Darnold (Minnesota Vikings - $6.2K DK, $7.5K FD)
We have seen enough games this year to feel confident about using Sam Darnold as the quarterback of a high-end DFS tournament stack. He has thrown for two or more touchdowns in all but one game and has three games of 20 or more DraftKings points in his five starts. He has shown the ability to get enough volume to multiple pass-catchers, such as Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
With Aaron Jones banged up and Detroit being elite at stopping the run, Minnesota will have to rely on the passing game to score against the Lions. If you want to get a little sneaky, T.J. Hockenson could be back for this game, and you know he would love to put a beat down on his former team. It could be risky to use him given the potential that he is on a snap count, but that’s what we like to do in tournaments; if you’re not first, you’re last. Shake and bake!
Others in consideration: C.J. Stroud (HOU), Daniel Jones (NYG), Jared Goff (DET)
Running Backs - Week 7 DFS Picks
Top Play: Bijan Robinson (Atlanta Falcons- $7.1K DK, $8.2K FD)
Bijan Robinson continues to be underpriced given his upside. Even though we worry about Tyler Allgeier getting too much work, Robinson still was able to approach 20 opportunities last weekend against Carolina. He paid that off big time with over 100 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, and he has a similarly strong matchup against the Seahawks this weekend.
Seattle has allowed 175 or more yards on the ground in three of its last five games, and you know that Atlanta wants to keep the ball out of Geno Smith’s hands. Robinson's passing work out of the backfield helps give him a high floor, but we are looking at him for a tournament because his upside is tremendous.
If he continues to see 20 opportunities, including work around the goal line, he should be able to pay off this price point with room for a ceiling when the matchup is this strong.
Top Play: Nick Chubb (Cleveland Browns- $6K DK, $6.8K FD)
It would make a ton of sense for the Cleveland Browns to slowly work Nick Chubb back up to full speed over the next four weeks, but the Browns have never been known to do intelligent things. Jerome Ford and D'Onta Foreman are banged up, meaning that this backfield could consist of only Pierre Strong Jr. and Chubb.
Cleveland needs this game badly to keep its season alive, meaning it may have to turn to its best offensive player to hold down the fort. The Bengals have been atrocious against the run this year, allowing more than 100 yards in every game and over 150 yards four times, so you could not ask for a better matchup in Chubb's return game.
He is as risky of a play as you can get, but he should come with no ownership and all the upside in the world. He is the type of player I would use with a chalky stack like Green Bay to differentiate my lineup and try to hit a home run in a single-entry tournament.
Others in consideration: Ty Chandler (MIN), Tony Pollard (TEN), Tyler Goodson (IND), Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG), Chase Brown (CIN)
Wide Receivers - Week 7 DFS Picks
Top Play: Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings - $8.5K DK, $9.4K FD)
There is more than enough value on this slate to spend up on Justin Jefferson at $8,500 on DraftKings. It’s a little surprising that he’s not priced over $9,000, and on a shorter slate like this, it’s hard to fade him. Jefferson has scored at least 15 DraftKings points in every game this year, scoring a touchdown in four of five starts.
Minnesota is one of the better teams to stack on the slate in an expected shootout against a Lions pass defense that has allowed over 300 yards twice this year. Even if you’re not using a full Vikings stack, getting a piece of Jefferson in your tournament lineups is still advisable.
If you happen to be playing cash games on this slate, he is an absolute must at the wide receiver position given his heavy usage in the passing game.
Contrarian Play: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks - $5.9K DK, $6.1K FD)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has evolved into the No. 2 receiving threat for the Seattle Seahawks. He has seven or more targets in four of his last five games and is a more dynamic weapon than Tyler Lockett. Given that Geno Smith leads the league in passing yards, we will want a piece of this passing game on a short slate.
JSN is a cheaper alternative than spending up on DK Metcalf or Kenneth Walker III and is more reliable than Lockett or Noah Fant. He will get the off-coverage while A.J. Terrell matches up with Metcalf. That could mean more easily convertible targets for Smith-Njigba. He’s a mid-range cash option and is also a good bring-back to an Atlanta stack in tournaments or as a one-off play.
1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 87.5%
The best receivers at beating coverage to get open in Week 6:https://t.co/JQALKAPTft
— PFF SEA Seahawks (@PFF_Seahawks) October 16, 2024
Others in consideration: A.J. Brown (PHI), Tyreek Hill (MIA), Jameson Williams (DET), Romeo Doubs (GB), Tank Dell (HOU)
Tight Ends - Week 7 DFS Picks
Top Play: David Njoku (Cleveland Browns - $4.1K DK, $5.3K FD)
Grant Calcaterra will be the sexy spend-down name at tight end this weekend, but his upside is limited and we’ve never seen him for more than a few quarters in the primary tight-end role. That makes him fine for cash games, but in tournaments, we want upside.
Last year, we saw what David Njoku is capable of as a featured weapon in the passing game, and Kevin Stefanski has already come out and stated that he intends to use Njoku in that manner again with the trade of Amari Cooper to Buffalo.
Njoku is a matchup nightmare for linebackers because of speed, and for defensive backs because of his size. He is one of the better downfield receiving tight ends in the league and is a menace inside the 10-yard line.
The big question is if Deshaun Watson is capable of getting him the football. At his price, I’m willing to take that chance after what we saw him do over the last quarter of the season in 2023.
Others in consideration: Grant Calcaterra (PHI), Kyle Pitts (ATL), Jonnu Smith (MIA)
Defense/Special Teams - Week 7 DFS Picks
Top Play: Minnesota Vikings ($2.9K DK, $3.9K FD)
The Vikings have a tough matchup this weekend against a powerful Detroit Lions offense that just hammered the Cowboys in Dallas, but we’ve yet to see a team hurt the Vikings offensively all season long.
The Giants may provide more value as a defense this weekend, but Minnesota’s upside is ridiculous considering what it has done thus far this year. That it is priced under $3,000 on DraftKings against any team is wild.
We know that Detroit is going to throw the football, and that kind of volume is going to be a benefit to Minnesota pass-rushers. It has shown the ability to get in the backfield and disrupt even the best quarterbacks in the league.
Jared Goff is significantly worse on the road than he is at home, and I’m willing to bet that the Vikings continue their defensive prowess even if they give up more points than normal against the Lions. At their price point, it’s hard to pass up on their upside in tournaments.
Others in consideration: New York Giants, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals
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