RADIO
Dynasty owners don’t play week to week, they play long term. However, dynasty owners still need to analyze different aspects of weekly matchups to determine the best time to sell or buy a player.
Make sure you don’t buy that hot rookie too soon and don’t sell the aging veteran too late. Each week, I will analyze different matchups across fantasy football with a dynasty frame of mind.
Let's take some time to see what matchups might pique the interest of dynasty league owners for Week 7 of the 2017 season. Here are some Week 7 matchup previews for dynasty league owners to monitor.
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Jaguars at Colts
Jalen Ramsey vs TY Hilton
The talk surrounding Indianapolis this week was about a player that hasn’t even seen the field in 2017. It was announced earlier in the week that Andrew Luck would be shut down after experiencing pain in his throwing shoulder again. It is even being speculated that the Colts will play it safe and shut Luck down for the year. To be fair, Jacoby Brissett hasn’t been bad this year. For a guy that was traded at the very end of the preseason, Brissett has adjusted nicely to his surroundings and helped the Colts at least stay competitive in most of their games this season. He is not Luck however, and the player most affected by Luck's absence has to be T.Y. Hilton. Hilton has four straight 1,000 yard receiving seasons including an NFL leading 1,448 yards in 2016. Hilton is on pace to break 1,000 yards again this season, but he has been inconsistent at best. After one reception for 19 yards in Week 6 against the Titans, Hilton has two games with 150 or more receiving yards and four games with less than 60 yards receiving. He still offers value as a WR2 with lots of WR1 upside, but it’s less consistent without Luck under center.
Opposite of Hilton and the Colts offense this week will be Jalen Ramsey and the surprise Jaguars defense. To say the Jaguars pass defense has been good this season is an understatement. They have been near-elite, ranking inside the top 10 of the NFL for total yards allowed per game, passing yards allowed per game and points allowed per game. On top of that, they lead the league in interceptions and sacks. The Jaguars are no longer a team you plug and play receivers against. If anything, it's now the opposite. The run defense for the Jaguars has been less than stellar, but for this matchup, we are discussing the pass game. One of the main reasons the Jaguars have been smothering offenses this year is an improved pass rush and their young corners. Ramsey has officially arrived as one of the best corners in the game, and may be closer to the best then most people realize. According to Pro Football Focus, quarterbacks have a 7.6 Contested Targets Passing Rating against Ramsey and he also grades out at a 90.5 for PFF, which would rank him as elite in the league. Ramsey enters a three-game stretch where he could be facing three of the top receivers in the NFL; with Hilton this week, AJ Green in Week 8 and Keenan Allen in Week 9. Fantasy owners will want to keep an eye on Ramsey to see if he will shut down the league’s elite.
What to watch for: How will Hilton fair against one of the top corners in the game? If Luck does indeed miss the rest of the season, dynasty owners playing for a championship in 2017 may want to look at trading Hilton. If so, look for owners who are playing for next year and that can wait out the Luck-less Colts until 2018. They may be willing to give up a couple of veterans that could provide more consistent scoring than what Hilton has been able to provide this year.
Saints at Packers
Ty Montgomery looked like he was well on the way to another big game against the Bears in Week 4, rushing for 28 yards on five carries to start the game. It was cut short after he headed to the locker room, with what would later be announced as broken ribs. After Jamaal Williams went down in the same game with a knee injury, Aaron Jones was able to step in and a week later thrashed the poor Cowboys rush defense for 125 yards on 19 carries. There was plenty of speculation heading into Week 6 as Montgomery was able to return to the practice field and take hits while wearing a Kevlar vest. It was bound to be a difficult matchup for Montgomery or Jones as the Vikings touted the third best rush defense in the league. Fantasy owners who were dealing with bye weeks scrambled to find out if they should put Montgomery or Jones in their lineup and neither offered much help. Jones did get a majority of the snaps (43-20) as anticipated, but the workload itself was much closer than I predicted. Jones only carried the ball three more times than Montgomery and had just as many receptions. Jones wasn’t much more productive either as he only averaged 3.2 yards per carry compared to Montgomery’s 2.8.
The main question moving forward is how these running backs will complement each other when they don’t have Aaron Rodgers leading the offense. I was as high as anyone could be on Montgomery coming into the season and until the injury, I was right. Heading into Week 4, Montgomery was the RB3 in PPR leagues and even after missing most of Week 4, all of Week 5 and being limited in Week 6, he’s still the RB22. One of the main reasons I was so high on Montgomery though was because he would be playing with Rodgers. Brett Hundley is going to need help and it may need to be the backfield that provides it. The Packers have one of the best trios of receivers in the game, but I don’t anticipate Hundley being able to feed them all the way Rodgers does. How the backfield plays out is a mystery that many fantasy owners need to have solved right away.
What to watch for: I expect Jones to receive a bulk of the carries moving forward unless he is ineffective and Montgomery will see a bulk of the passing game work. The Packers will be in a shootout this week against the Saints but will then have very winnable games against the Lions, Bears and Ravens. If Jones can’t solidify himself as the lead back over the next few weeks he could leave the door open for Montgomery to work back into the picture. If that happens, you have to be careful buying Jones. Montgomery was the lead back in Green Bay to start the year for a reason. Owners of either Jones or Montgomery should look to add the other in the coming weeks.
Cardinals at Rams
Adrian Peterson vs Rams Rush Defense
Time machines may exist after all; I could swear we had traveled back to 2015 last week! Well, maybe it was just Adrian Peterson that traveled back in time. After a dreadful start to the year that saw Peterson play only 45 snaps through five weeks, he played 48 in Week 6 against Tampa Bay and ran for 134 yards on 26 carries and two touchdowns. This was by far Peterson's best performance since Week 11 of 2015 when he rushed for 158 yards against Atlanta.
The Rams rush defense has been bad this year, allowing 139.5 yards per game, ranking 29th in the league. Aaron Donald still seems to be working his way back into game shape and hasn't been his former dominant self. As bad as the Rams rush defense has been, the Cardinals offensive line has been worse. The tale of the tape will be if the Rams defensive line can get to Peterson in the backfield. If they can, they have a better chance of slowing him down.
The 32-year-old Peterson looked like his old self in Week 6. His cuts looked sharp, he showed a bust of speed and his vision was excellent. Even though the Cardinals offensive line were able to open up some lanes for Peterson, he had to wait on them to open up other times. Peterson isn’t going to run for 100 yards every game the rest of the season, nor will he approach any of the same numbers he put up in 2015 or previous seasons. Keep in mind that he is the lead back now for an offense that doesn’t get David Johnson back for several weeks. Players always suffer setbacks as well, so if Johnson isn’t able to return right away, Peterson could offer value to owners who need help until their first rounder can return.
What to watch for: The name of the game will be the Rams defensive line penetrating the Cardinals offensive line. If guys like Donald, Robert Quinn and Michael Brockers can get into the backfield and slow down Peterson, it will give more time for linebackers Alec Ogletree and Marc Barron to track down Peterson and hold him to minimum gains. If you are a Johnson owner hoping to grab Peterson, you need to hope this happens so you can grab him cheap. Another big game from Peterson could close the window for trade talks.
