Week 5 IDP Fantasy Football Rankings

Chris Gregory gives his IDP rankings and the top streamers to start along with defensive players to sit for Week 5 of the 2021 fantasy football season.

“Why do analysts consistently rank Player X so high when he isn't doing much?” It’s a fair question posed by one of our readers, and it is a solid observation considering that analysts do tend to be more patient with players than most. We wait on a rebound from Allen Robinson, we stash Robert Woods for his breakout, and we hold onto Jeremy Chinn even when he fails to crack the top 10 at his position four weeks in a row. But why do we do this, you ask?

There are a few reasons why IDP rankers are particularly patient with our players. One of those reasons is the most obvious: there is a shortage of elite fantasy options on defense. There are very few DBs or DLs with safe floors and a high ceiling each week, and sometimes you have to wait on the big games with those guys. A second reason we are patient is we count what isn’t in the box score. When Jeremy Chinn forces a fumble that refs screw up, or Chandler Jones gets a half-sack that scorekeepers miss, we factor those things into future projections. Finally, we preach patience due to the need for consistency in IDP formats. While it’s easy to chase big plays, those rarely come consistently. Good defenders regularly rack up tackles, and the big plays will come eventually. That is why many formats and rankers prioritize tackle-steady players over the hard to predict big games or big plays.

With that said, it is worth reminding you that our ranks try to balance the needs of all IDP formats. Because Individual Defensive Player leagues vary in scoring formats far more than any other fantasy format, we do our best to account for all possible setups. Tackles and consistency will take the highest priority, but big playmakers like T.J. Watt will transcend any settings or position label… as you will see in this week's ranks below.

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Top-30 Fantasy Defensive Linemen of the Week

DL Streamer of the Week: Josh Allen, Jacksonville Jaguars

With a porous Jets defense on tap and no A.J. Brown or Julio Jones available, you would have expected the Tennessee Titans to run Derrick Henry until his dreads fell out last week. Instead, the Titans threw the ball a staggering 49 times. That script isn't out of the ordinary for a 2021 Titans that has repeatedly played from behind, either. Before their passing bonanza against New York, the Titans were averaging a surprising 34 pass attempts per contest.

Increased passing volume doesn’t equal efficiency, however. Though the Titans are throwing it more often than usual, their offensive line ranks third-worst in the NFL in Adjusted Sack Rate. Tennessee is also allowing the most sacks per game in the NFL, at a rate of 4.25 sacks per contest. Both of those metrics place Tennessee’s offensive line amongst the worst in pro football.

Since the Titans’ defense hasn’t even stopped Zach Wilson this year, and their offensive line is equally inept, the Jaguars’ pass rushers should have a lot of fantasy opportunities this week. Expect Tennessee to throw at least 30 times, and Allen should see multiple shots at the quarterback as a result.

DL Fade of the Week: Cameron Jordan, New Orleans Saints

There’s no denying that this former Cal Golden Bear has had a quiet start to 2021 in terms of sacks, which is the primary stat in which many IDP managers measure his success. There is reason to hope he will rebound into a solid DL2 role this year, however. Key reasons for optimism are Jordan's still great pressure rate (4.5 per game) and his six QB hits so far, which are both good indicators of future sack performance. However, his rebound is more likely to come in Week 6 against Seattle than it is to come against the Washington Football Team this week.

Washington’s offensive line allows just one sack per game this year while ranking 12th best in plays with positive yardage. That means the Football Team rarely allows tackles for loss or sacks. Ron Rivera's club also allows the 10th fewest QB knockdowns in the league, and they are scheming quick throws that let Taylor Heinicke dump the ball at an average clip of just 2.4 seconds.  Washington’s efficient passing offense and their ability to focus on Jordan as their primary threat should cause problems for the Saints' veteran pass rusher, even without Brandon Scherff on the field.

Top-30 Fantasy Linebackers of the Week

LB Streamer of the Week: Alexander Johnson, Denver Broncos

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense currently ranks fifth-worst in Pro Football Focus’ rushing efficiency. To add insult to injury, Ben Roethlisberger is averaging the eighth-lowest Air Yards per Attempt, amongst NFL passers with at least two starts this season. Take those factors together, and it’s easy to see why this offense struggles. They cannot throw the ball deep, they cannot establish the run, and now they are dealing with injuries to Roethlisberger and several of his pass-catchers.

As a symptom of Pittsburgh’s offensive problems, Big Ben is peppering the field with short passes. That tendency provides opposing linebackers terrific fantasy potential. In each of the past three weeks, we've seen Roethlisberger feed lead linebackers with elite fantasy numbers. Alexander Johnson (who is second on his team in tackles, sacks, and TFLs) should be the next one dining at Big Ben’s table.

LB Fade of the Week: Jerome Baker, Miami Dolphins

Baker is a maddeningly inconsistent fantasy performer. Since the start of the 2020 season, the Ohio State product has scored five or fewer standard fantasy points in nine out of twenty contests. The Dolphins' starter has produced eight or more standard fantasy points in eight different games during that same span. So, in other words, Baker can be a feast-or-famine starter for IDP managers.

Given Baker’s fantasy inconsistency, you have to worry about his matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week. The Bucs are throwing the ball 71% of the time this season, and without Rob Gronkowski on the field, we saw Tom Brady send 70% of his throws to receivers, with 35% of his targets traveling deep and outside the hashes. Translation: while Baker is athletic enough to engage with the Bucs’ passing attack, this offense should frequently run outside of his zone(s) and limit his fantasy upside. Baker is likely a sack-dependent gamble this week.

Top-30 Fantasy Defensive Backs of the Week

DB Streamer of the Week: Byron Murphy Jr., Arizona Cardinals

We hinted at Murphy being our Streamer of the Week in this week’s waiver column, and here he is. While the Cardinals’ best corner is currently considered “day-to-day,” we expect him to play and to play well against a rookie quarterback (Trey Lance) who will likely be making his first career start in the NFL this week.

If Lance does start, you have to like the opportunities he provides the Cardinals’ secondary. While the star from North Dakota State has elite intangibles and can escape pressure, he still tends to throw his balls high and hot. When you watch Lance throw, you see his receivers struggle to tame his velocity, and several of those balls sail on him in each contest. It won’t help that Trent Williams is questionable to play here, either. If Lance is throwing high and scrambling to avoid pressure from the left side, where fifth-round rookie Jaylon Moore may be starting, the potential for turnovers is there. Murphy should be considered a DB2 this week, as a result.

DB Fade of the Week: Vonn Bell, Cincinnati Bengals

Last week we faded Chandler Jones because of a bad matchup but noted you might have to start him anyway. This week we are telling you to fade expectations for Vonn Bell thanks to a concerning matchup, even if you have little choice but to play him as well.

While it may not seem like the Packers' high-volume passing attack (32 attempts per game) is a bad fantasy matchup for safeties, it is. The cheesy ones routinely limit opposing DBs in fantasy, thanks to Aaron Rodgers' elite efficiency.  While Rodgers does throw the ball a lot, he rarely makes mistakes. As proof, consider the fact he has averaged just 6.33 “bad throws” over the past three weeks and that PFF credits him with just two "turnover worthy plays" during that time.

With Rodgers making so few mistakes, the big plays should be hard to come by for Bengals defenders. However, if any big plays are there to be had, Bell is likely third in line behind Jessie Bates III and Logan Wilson. Consider Bell a DB2 this week, with very limited upside.

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