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Week 5 brings bye weeks into the mix to muck up fantasy football lineups.
The Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles take their mini-vacation this week. That's unfortunate for the game we love, as both pass defenses are well below average and easy targets for start/sit decisions. At least the league's top pass defense (Tennessee) is also off the table this week.
Below are my 10 fantasy football busts, or players that may disappoint, for Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC) vs. New Orleans
Let's get wild right away in Week 5. Or is it wild?
Patrick Mahomes isn't a good fantasy football quarterback in 2024. He wasn't particularly good in 2023, either. The three-time Super Bowl champion is currently the QB16, four fantasy points ahead of Deshaun Watson, who is universally panned for looking like a broken quarterback.
Mahomes, of course, isn't broken (although a 6:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio is far from elite). His team is undefeated. They're just winning with defense.
Games with 2+ passing touchdowns since the beginning of last season:
13: Dak Prescott, Jordan Love
12: Baker Mayfield
11: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jared Goff
10: CJ Stroud, Brock Purdy, Derek Carr— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 2, 2024
Losing top wide receiver Rashee Rice to injury only compounds the problem. The Chiefs entered the season with optimism about their revamped wide receiver corps. Rice, Marquise Brown, and rookie first-round pick Xavier Worthy would provide big-play potential for Mahomes. Travis Kelce could then take fewer reps and save his body for the three-peat quest. It's now Worthy, Justin Watson, and JuJu Smith-Schuster atop the depth chart.
To make matters worse, the Saints have surrendered one passing touchdown this season. Mahomes' Super Bowl rings are blinding the fantasy community. He should be in the streaming quarterback category.
Sam Darnold (QB, MIN) vs. New York Jets*
*Game played in London
Sam Darnold has passed every test as the Vikings quarterback and the fantasy community is slowly starting to buy in. He leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (11) and slots in as the QB4 entering Week 5. Let's see if he can pass his toughest test yet.
Sam Darnold, asked by @markcraignfl if he thought the Jets failed him during his 3 seasons with the team: "No. I think I had a lot of opportunities in New York. I always felt like I could have played better there."
— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) October 2, 2024
Darnold matches up against the second-best pass defense in football and the team that drafted him with the third overall pick in 2018. The Jets have allowed 128 passing yards per game and two passing touchdowns. It should be noted that the Jets have faced Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett, and Bo Nix in the last three weeks, but the larger body of work points to the Jets secondary being a no-fly zone.
London games aren't usually high-scoring affairs. Sportsbook set the over/under line at 40.5, the third lowest of the week. Darnold can still be a hidden gem starting quarterback for the rest of the fantasy season, but the safer bet is to make sure he's matchup-proof before relying on him weekly.
Chase Brown (RB, CIN) vs. Baltimore
Don't follow the points that Chase Brown scored a week ago. He averaged five yards per carry, scored twice, and outplayed his counterpart Zack Moss in the eye test. He could start to take on more work as the season progresses. But not quite yet.
Bengals running back Chase Brown is currently second in the league in yards per rush after first contact (3.34), per ESPN Research. Trails New England's Antonio Gibson.
— Ben Baby (@Ben_Baby) October 3, 2024
Looking at the Cincinnati running backs on paper, one would presume that Brown is the third-down back while Moss does the dirty work on rushing downs. That's not the case. Because of Brown's subpar pass-blocking skill set, Moss is the trusted running back in passing situations.
Moss was on the field during the high-value touch situations. He played nine of 14 third downs and three-quarters of the snaps at the 1-yard line. The game script against Baltimore could favor Moss.
Even if it doesn't, the Ravens have allowed the fewest yards to running backs through the first four weeks. If he's not getting consistent work in the passing game, Brown will look more like a bench player than the fantasy stud he was in Week 4.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE) vs. Miami
The Week 5 matchup isn't an issue for Rhamondre Stevenson. The Dolphins give up the 10th-most rushing yards to running backs and the most touchdowns to the position. Even wilder, the Patriots might play with a lead, despite averaging the second-fewest points (13) per game. Only Miami (11.3) is below them.
Rather, the issue is Stevenson's fumbles. He's coughed one up in every game this season, losing one in Weeks 3 and 4. That's a 17-fumble pace for the season. His snap percentages are slipping and head coach Jerod Mayo may be nearing the breaking point.
#Patriots HC Jerod Mayo on whether he’s considered starting Antonio Gibson over Rhamondre Stevenson, who has fumbled in all four games:
“That’s definitely under consideration. I’ve had multiple conversations with Rhamondre. We can’t preach that ball security is job security, and… pic.twitter.com/H5IszGoGP0
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 2, 2024
Ironically, fumble problems have also plagued Antonio Gibson throughout his professional career.
In a game that features the second-lowest over/under of the week (36.5) and could resemble the abomination to the NFL game we watched between Miami and Tennessee on Monday night, it's best to avoid everybody in this matchup, especially someone who could get benched.
Rico Dowdle (RB, DAL) at Pittsburgh
Rico Dowdle has earned 11 touches in each of the last three games. However, his share of the running back touches has skyrocketed and there are murmurs of the 26-year-old taking even more of a command over the Dallas backfield.
Rico Dowdle's running back rush shares in Weeks 1 and 2: 32.0% and 33.3%
Rico Dowdle's running back rush shares in Weeks 3 and 4: 61.5% and 61.1%
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) September 30, 2024
Dowdle's first touchdown of the season opened more eyes to his fantasy potential. He should be on benches in every league, but there's still a lot of work to be done on the Dallas rushing attack before he's a reliable starter.
The Cowboys average the fewest rushing yards per game (75.3). Eleven running backs and Lamar Jackson average more per game than the entire Dallas team.
The matchup also doesn't do Dowdle any favors. The Steelers allow the second-fewest fantasy points to the position.
Tyreek Hill (WR, MIA) at New England
It's almost the same scenario as a week ago. Tyler Huntley is getting the start for the lowest-scoring offense in football, which has completely collapsed without Tua Tagovailoa in the lineup.
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill currently has +330 Anytime TD Odds at DK.
I've tracked his ATD odds for every game since 2020. Even in games without QB Tua Tagovailoa, he's never had TD odds over +190.
That's how poorly oddsmakers think of Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson.
— Gilles Gallant (@GDAWG5000) October 2, 2024
Also like last week, the Dolphins are facing a defense with one of the league's elite corners. Christian Gonzalez has allowed 91 receiving yards through four games, according to Pro Football Focus.
Miami's offensive ineptitude was on full display on Monday Night Football. Every football fan witnessed how dire the situation is. The floors for the weapons are too low. Sit the stars in South Beach until Tagovailoa returns. That applies to De'Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle as well.
Rashid Shaheed (WR, NO) at Kansas City
This is the wild one (sorry, Mahomes). One touch is all it takes for Rashid Shaheed to make me look foolish.
It's a small sample size, but the Saints offense has crumbled without Taysom Hill in the lineup. The do-it-all player scored two quick touchdowns for the Saints in Week 4. Fractured ribs forced him from the game and the Saints scored one touchdown the rest of the contest. It was a similar struggle in Week 3. Hill missed the game and the Saints only scored 12 points. It's unlikely Hill will suit up in Week 5.
The Chiefs have allowed the sixth-fewest yards to wide receivers, despite being middle-of-the-pack in receptions surrendered. They're tougher against outside receivers, where Shaheed lines up most often. Shaheed isn't a sit as he's involved in more than running nine routes, but the connection on the deep pass that will cement his status as a top-36 wide receiver might not come.
Tank Dell (WR, HOU) vs. Buffalo
The Buffalo Bills are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season and they've shut down Marvin Harrison Jr., Tyreek Hill, and Zay Flowers this season.
The matchup could make fantasy managers second-guess Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Collins is fantasy football's WR2 and seemingly matchup-proof. Sitting him would be downright silly. Diggs will be featured to stick it to his former team (and the slot is the place to attack the Buffalo secondary).
That leaves Tank Dell, who is expected to return to the lineup after missing Week 4 with a rib injury. He may get a target bump if Joe Mixon (ankle) can't play and Houston is forced to rely on the passing game. But it won't be enough to justify starting Dell in flex spots.
Jakobi Meyers (WR, LV) at Denver
Davante Adams has likely played his last snap in silver and black. Initially sitting out Week 4 with a "hamstring" issue, Adams and the team have agreed that a trade would be the best for both parties. That moves Jakobi Meyers to the top of the wide receiver depth chart.
“It’s gonna be a distraction, it is what it is. Making plays regardless…and move forward…we’re gonna see this week and moving forward.”
Raiders receiver Jakobi Meyers speaks on the Davante Adams potential trade situation and how teams might be playing him as the potential WR1… pic.twitter.com/QoKMYgtneq
— Vegas Sports Today (@VegasSportsTD) October 2, 2024
That's not necessarily a good thing for Meyers. While he saw a season-high in targets (10) against Cleveland in Week 4, the 27-year-old secured half of them. The targets weren't the high success rate kind Meyers is used to.
Operating mostly from the slot this season, Meyers caught 82% of his targets in the first three weeks. In Week 4, Meyers was lined up outside on 44 of his 57 offensive snaps. D.J. Turner occupied the slot.
On the outside, Meyers moves into Pat Surtain II territory. Will Surtain shadow Meyers? That isn't very likely. He doesn't have the status of DK Metcalf, George Pickens, Mike Evans, or Garrett Wilson. But if Surtain can shut down those guys, Meyers won't be a problem.
And if the Raiders alter their strategy and move Meyers back inside more often, the Broncos allow the second-fewest fantasy points to slot wide receivers. Meyers' stock is trending up with Adams' likely departure but this isn't the week to trust him in fantasy lineups.
Zay Flowers (WR, BAL) at Cincinnati
At the time of this writing, the matchup between the Ravens and Bengals has the highest over/under line of the Week 5 slate (50.5). If that comes true, the odds of a bust sharply decline. Let's gamble on it.
The Ravens have found a new strategy to win football games and it doesn't involve the second-year receiver. It barely involves any receiver or (as fantasy managers are painfully aware) tight end.
Ravens Top 5 Receiving Leaders Through 4 Weeks:
1. TE Isaiah Likely - 163 yards
2. RB Justice Hill - 140 yards
3. WR Zay Flowers - 138 yards
4. WR Rashod Bateman - 116 yards
5. TE Mark Andrews - 65 yards— Ravens Nation 𝙇𝙄𝙑𝙀 (@LIVERavenNation) October 1, 2024
Against the Cowboys in Week 3, the Ravens attempted 15 passes and ran the ball 45 times. It wasn't quite as dramatic against Buffalo in Week 4 (19 to 34), but still extremely favorable toward the run. Because of the commitment to the run and big leads Baltimore built, Flowers played fewer than 70% of the snaps in both victories. He was on the field for 89% of the snaps in Weeks 1 and 2.
No receiver can consistently produce with that low passing volume. What's stopping Baltimore from relying on the run again? The Bengals allow 145.5 rushing yards per game. That's 0.3 fewer than the Cowboys. They're probably a worse rush defense than the Cowboys because they haven't had a matchup against Baltimore's 220 rushing yards per game.
Until there's a matchup against a team known to stop the run or who can put Baltimore in a negative game script, Flowers is a shaky start. The Bengals haven't shown to fit either criteria through the season's first quarter.
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