Week 3 is almost in the books and we are here to look at some pitchers who might be available as you hunt for your next fix-err I mean, savvy pickup. Protocol dictates sticking to players who are owned in <50% of leagues.
Starting pitchers have the most rollover during the season and the incredible depth of pitchers that are going across the league mean there are almost always candidates to look at with dreams of striking it rich. I’m here to put together some starting pitchers for your waiver considerations.
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Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Targets
Drew Pomeranz (SD, SP) – 43% - Pomeranz is beasting through his first three 2016 starts for the Padres. He is 2-1 with 25 strikeouts in only 17.2 innings thus far with a beautiful 2.04 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He is generating whiffs at an insane 17.4%, second only to Noah Syndergaard’s 19.3%. Okay, that probably won’t hold, but he’s definitely above average in that category. Injuries and pitching in Coors have bitten Pomeranz in the past, but he’s been plenty good for Oakland these past two seasons so this breakout is believable. He’ll want to rein the command a bit, but he deserves to be owned in all leagues right now.
J.A. Happ (TOR, SP) – 41% - Happ went seven innings on Saturday, beating the Oakland A’s to improve to 3-0 on the young season. Happ now has a 2.42 ERA (with a 3.96 FIP) and only 13 strikeouts in 26 innings. He continues to rely on plus control and nibbling at corners to dance around hard contact and trouble. Pitching for Toronto means you’re facing some scary offenses, but he's also getting some serious run support.
Erasmo Ramirez (TB, SP/RP) – 32% - Ramirez has been used primarily out of the bullpen to start the year for the Rays, and yet he has a 4-0 record. I was excited about his prospects as a starter coming into the season, and while he hasn’t gotten that chance (yet), he is still succeeding. He has only walked one batter in his 14 innings of work so far. That’ll help one open with a 1.29 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. Keep an eye on him. He would’ve started on Saturday against the Yankees but had to be used in relief too close to that opening.
Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS, SP) – 31% - He is set to begin his rehab assignment at Double-A Portland the week of April 25. The plan seems to be for 2-3 rehab starts and a mid-May return.
Brandon Finnegan (CIN, SP) – 30% - I’d look elsewhere but he's still got buzz around him so here we are. Finnegan’s control continues to be his Achilles’ heel with 12 walks in 21.2 innings so far, but he’s also struck out 18 which is notable. He pitched around 100 innings last season so don’t expect more than 130-140 innings out of him, and Cincinnati won’t get him many wins. He’s also rocking a .183 BABIP. For context, he posted a .238 BABIP in 48 major league innings last season.
Ross Stripling (LAD, SP) – 25% - Stripling’s FIP is 2.74 through his first three starts, though his SIERA is 4.20. He has 13 strikeouts in 17 innings and should be able to provide decent Ks. He showed plus command in the minors, and it can help him attack the corners despite not having overwhelming stuff. For now he has a spot in the Dodgers’ rotation and is performing well, so feel free to stream him, just don’t count on him as a fixture. He had Tommy John surgery in 2014 and only pitched 71.1 innings last season, so be aware of that as well.
Anthony DeSclafani (CIN, SP) – 24% - DeSclafani made his first rehab start on Saturday, throwing 60 pitches in four innings. He struck out five and walked one while allowing three runs on four hits (two homers, both to Mariners’ prospect Tyler O’Neill). He showed major improvements in the second half last season as he started to rack up more Ks alongside significantly fewer walks as his secondary offerings really stepped up. He should be solid in four of five categories, with wins being a tough sell.
Adam Conley (MIA, SP) – 24% - Conley’s first start went horribly, but his second start saw him post six shutout innings where he struck out nine Mets. He then shut down the Nationals for six innings until he gave up two solo homers in the seventh. Then two of his runners scored on a Bryce Harper grand slam to ruin his quality start. He has 19 strikeouts in 13.2 innings so far backed by a gorgeous 13.2% swinging strike rate. The 4.61 ERA shrouds a 3.03 FIP thus far. He makes for a fantastic “end of the rotation” piece.
Rick Porcello (BOS, SP) – 23% - Porcello makes for an interesting study. He has 24 strikeouts against three walks in 19.1 innings, so that’s good. He just happens to be giving up moonshots at an even higher clip than he did last season. He surrendered 25 homers in 172 innings last year (1.31 HR/9) and has already given up five dingers. Porcello gets the Braves on Monday, certainly worth a shot given his performance thus far. Oh, and now he has Christian Vazquez catching him. Never underestimate a plus defensive catcher.
Bartolo Colon (NYM, SP) – 21% - He just won’t quit. Would you believe that he currently has an 8.8% swinging strike rate? That would make for the highest recorded rate of his career (going back through 2002, his prime K years in 2000 and 2001 don’t have that data). He’s throwing his changeup a lot more so far which might be assisting with fastball effectiveness. He isn’t going to twirl a 12 K shutout, but the Mets give him solid chances of picking up the W and his elite control allows him to keep a lid on potential damage.
Kevin Gausman (BAL, SP) – 21% - He’s lined up to start on April 25 against the Rays. In his rehab assignment he struck out 19 in 11 innings, so he’s ready to rumble.
Aaron Blair (ATL, SP) – 19% - Blair was one of the pieces that Atlanta scored in the Shelby Miller deal, and so far he has 22 strikeouts in 19 innings with a 1.42 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in three Triple-A starts. He is reportedly in the mix for Sunday’s turn in the rotation against the Mets after Williams Perez was demoted. Blair doesn’t project to have a terribly high ceiling, but he doesn’t have much else to prove in the minors. If he does well then he could make for a nice flip piece to a “shiny new toy” syndrome sufferer.
Rich Hill (OAK, SP) – 19% - Hill has had four starts so far in 2016, and two of them have been stinkers while the other two were both 10 K gems. He’s been able to generate a ton of whiffs for many years now, but his control is key. He won’t carry a .442 BABIP forward this season, but he’ll want to get a handle on the nine walks in 19 innings. His next start is a tough test in Detroit, but two 10 strikeouts games already means you pick him up and see how he progresses.
Robbie Ray (ARI, SP) – 18% - Ray has good stuff but struggles with walks, and this year appears to be more of the same. Ray had a great start against the Giants and now has 17 strikeouts in 18.1 innings with a 1.96 ERA, but don’t sell out for the surface stats. His 3.31 FIP is more indicative of what to expect, though he is enjoying a nice bump in swinging swing rate from 9% last season to 11% early on this year.
Chase Anderson (MIL, SP) – 17% - Anderson struggled against the Twins, surrendering four runs on 11 hits in five innings. The good news was that he continued to show strong command as he didn't walk anyone, but obviously the results will still poor as Miguel Sano and Byung-ho Park homered off of him. He is currently getting hit hard by the Phillies at home, with six earned runs through four innings as I hit submit. His first two starts were encouraging, but he has allowed eight hits and walked four so far and looks to only make it through four innings of work (currently at 99 pitches). Trust is hard to come by when you struggle against the Twins and the Phillies, so he's best left on the Waiver Wire right now in most leagues.
Josh Tomlin (CLE, SP) – 14% - Jordan Bastian tweeted out after Tomlin’s last start that he now has a 2.79 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 77.1 innings since returning to action last season. He has walked nine batters in those 77.1 innings while still being capable of average strikeout totals. Be aware that his low BABIP (.219) and high strand rate (92.1%) means he is enjoying some luck, but he’s still plenty intriguing and gets the Twins next.
Nick Tropeano (LAA, SP) – 10% - Tropeano has only allowed three runs in his 16 innings of work so far. His 14:8 K:BB ratio points to a guy trying to limit mistakes and attack hitters with his good moving secondary offerings. He is an intriguing option for as long as he gets the opportunity to pitch, and hopefully when Andrew Heaney is ready to come back the Angels will have recognized that Tropeano is better than guys like Jered Weaver and Matt Shoemaker.
Kendall Graveman (OAK, SP) – 6% - Graveman continues to generate grounders at a heavy clip (64.6% thus far) and if someone does lift a pitch of his, well he pitches in Oakland so that’ll help. His ratios are his moneymaker, and in his latest start he limited the Yankees to one run in 6.1 innings. He now has a 2.04 ERA with skill-based ERAs in the mid-threes. His BABIP is .170 so tread carefully, but in deeper leagues he is definitely worth playing in most matchups.
Chad Bettis (COL, SP) – 6% - Bettis is showing improved command in 2016 and makes for a good streamer/road starter. Bettis has pitched 24.1 innings thus far and is 2-0 with 19 strikeouts, a 3.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. His skill based ERAs are all around four so tread carefully, but he posted a 3.18 ERA in the second half last season and could be very useful if deployed correctly.
Daniel Norris (DET, SP) – 5% - Just don’t forget about Norris in deeper leagues as he’s taken his rehab assignment to Triple-A.
Jhoulys Chacin (ATL, SP) – 5% - In deeper leagues Chacin might deserve a glance as he didn't walk anyone in his first two starts and struck out 14 in 11 innings. He has currently allowed four runs (three earned) in five innings to the Mets, and unfortunately he walked two, what a spoilsport. He isn't getting particularly lucky, though there is little reason to believe in the strikeouts as his arsenal hasn't changed from the days where he was barely striking out six per nine innings. Regardless, results demand discussion.
Jon Gray (COL, SP) – 4% - Gray made his 2016 debut on Friday night against the Dodgers and struck out 10 while allowing five runs. Gray’s fastball and slider were working for him, but some location issues did him in as Adrian Gonzalez in particular punished him for it. Gray can be the guy who strikes out a ton of batters, and if he can work on his command then he might be the first “must-start” Coors pitcher since Ubaldo Jimenez’s wild streak in 2010. See how he adjusts in his next start for now.
Homer Bailey (CIN, SP) – 4% - Bailey threw 67 pitches in his first rehab start at Triple-A, allowing two runs in 3.2 innings but striking out six. Working back from Tommy John is always a murky affair, but he was touching 95 MPH with his fastball. Manager Bryan Price said Bailey had at least three more rehab starts before activation would be considered. Those in deeper leagues can stash him if there’s no one else since the timeline is drawing closer.
Matt Wisler (ATL, SP) – 3% - Wisler has done well to limit free passes so far and turn in quality starts against offenses like the Nationals and Dodgers (he allowed four runs to the Cardinals). He makes for a quiet NL-only type that might be flying well under the radar thanks to his pitching for the Braves, but his fastball and slider can do some sneaky damage.
Ricky Nolasco (MIN, SP) – 3% - You didn’t stumble into a time machine, as Nolasco’s now turned in two quality starts against the Royals and Brewers (both on the road). His next matchup looks to be a home tilt against the Indians. AL-only streaming types will want to keep an eye on him.
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