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Week 3 NFL Recap: Injuries & Game by Game Analysis

Is it me or has the 2015 NFL fantasy season been predominantly determined by injuries and underperforming superstars? Nearly every game on the slate has a storyline featuring the injury bug or a lackluster showing from a highly drafted stud. Either way, the goal as per usual here is to make heads or tails of the Week 3 action. Hopefully your team has been able to hang tough even with all of the negativity thus far.

The biggest storyline coming out of Week 3 has got to be the injury to Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben left Sunday’s game with what has since been diagnosed as a sprained MCL and a bone bruise. The expectation is that he’ll be out of action for 4-6 weeks, which, even though injuries stink, has to be a relief considering how bad it looked initially. Quarterbacks seem to be dropping like flies this year so the waiver wire might already be slim pickings at this point. Certainly the more enticing options like Carson Palmer and Marcus Mariota have been scooped up by now so you’re likely going to have to dig a little deeper to find yourself a replacement. If you’re looking for someone to get you through the entire six weeks, why not Buffalo Bills QB Tyrod Taylor? Taylor has racked up 714 passing yards and seven touchdowns through three games. Throw in his 96 rushing yards with an additional TD and you’re looking at the fourth best fantasy quarterback of 2015. Pretty crazy but he’s the guy I’d target if the bigger names aren’t available.

Even with the crazy amount of injuries throughout the league, a lot of the ones worth mentioning relevant to Week 3 would be best served saving for the individual games so let’s just jump to it shall we?

 

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants

If, like me, you bought into the Matt Jones hype, you were treated to a whopping one fantasy point on Thursday night. That being said, Jones’ counterpart, Alfred Morris, was equally as unproductive. It was a disappointing outing for pretty much the entire Redskins offense with the exception of tight end Jordan Reed who reeled in six catches for 96 yards. This is a team that, when capable, will want to run the ball with their two-headed monster in Jones and Morris. Jones almost had a productive fantasy outing anyway if it wasn’t for a fumble at the goal line. Going forward, I think this will remain closer to a timeshare with Jones having slightly more upside than Morris. Reed should be viewed as a low-end TE1 at this point as well.

As for the Giants, you can officially cut bait with this entire backfield. Like it or not, Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen, and Andre Williams are in a genuine timeshare. You can’t start Jennings or Williams with any confidence if you can help it. Despite not recording a reception in this particular game, at least Vereen appears to have taken control of passing down duties. It was nice to see Odell Beckham Jr. find the endonze here but it was Rueben Randle who led the team in receiving yards. I’m shrugging that performance off for now, especially considering the fact that Victor Cruz is expected to return in Week 4. We’ll have to see how the targets divide up between Cruz and Randle.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots

This game went exactly as expected with the Patriots just absolutely destroying the Jaguars 51-17. Julian Edelman continues to be a PPR stud while Rob Gronkowski keeps proving why he was worthy of a first round draft pick this year. The only major takeaway from this game as far as New England is concerned is the fact that this backfield will be impossible to predict between LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis. After Lewis lead the charge last week, Blount had the most rushing attempts, turning his 18 touches into 78 yards and three touchdowns. This is classic Bill Belichick so if you own either Patriots runner your guess is as good as mine. Lewis is the more reliable PPR option but I don’t expect Blount’s role to diminish to a significant degree.

Jacksonville running back T.J. Yeldon should be viewed as a flex play with RB2 potential going forward. As the old adage goes, a starting running back in the NFL has value, it’s just a matter of degree. Wide receiver Allen Robinson has the potential to be a sneaky WR3 this season but it doesn’t help that Allen Hurns has been eating into his target total. Perhaps more importantly, tight end Julius Thomas will shake up the passing game upon his return although it’s still unclear just when that’ll occur. Until then, Robinson is the pass-catcher you want to own in Jacksonville.

 

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys

The injury to Atlanta running back Tevin Coleman opened the door for second year player DeVonta Freeman and he certainly seized that opportunity. Freeman turned 30 rushing attempts into a huge day of 141 yards and three touchdowns. If you ask me, that should be enough to solidify his position atop the depth chart after Coleman returns. Freeman should be the top waiver wire add of the week if he wasn’t owned in your league already. Obviously Coleman is going to be involved when he gets back but Freeman proved to be usable. I’d expect him to out touch Coleman if and when this does go back to being closer to a timeshare. Julio Jones is now the number one fantasy wide receiver, ahead of Antonio Brown until Ben Roethlisberger returns.

Speaking of breakout running backs, how about Joseph Randle? Randle ran for three touchdowns in this game and could have (should have) had another if it wasn’t for pesky vulture Darren McFadden. For some added perspective, however, here’s a different take on Randle’s day. Per Matt Harmon of NFL.com, here’s the yardage results of each of Randle’s 14 carries: 28, 37, 20, 1, -1, 1, 4, 1, 0, 1, -1, -4, 2, -2. That’s really just three big, productive runs out of 14. I’m not telling you that stat to dismiss his big fantasy day but rather to lower your expectations going forward. Sure, Randle is a RB2 now that we know he’s going to get the majority of the carries but he’s closer to RB15 than he is RB10. Lastly, consider the fact that Brandon Weeden completed a grand total of four passes to Dallas wide receivers on Sunday, all four of which went to Cole Beasley. He did manage to get tailback Lance Dunbar the ball 10 times for 100 yards but this is no longer an offense that can rely on it’s pass catchers outside of tight end Jason Witten.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans

At last we’ve seen the actual return of wide receiver Mike Evans. He didn’t find the endzone in this game but he did reel in seven receptions for 101 yards. It’s safe to say that he’s back to full strength and should be locked in as a high-end WR2/low-end WR1. Other than Evans, it’s hard to trust anyone else in this offense for fantasy purposes. Vincent Jackson will have some weeks where he’s usable but good luck figuring out when those are.

After a concussion scare earlier in the week, Houston wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins ended up suiting up in this game for 101 yards and a touchdown. He’s going to continue to have a solid year for the Texans although it should be pointed out that the team has thrown the ball the most in the NFL thus far. Their 144 attempts are certainly going to come down upon the return of running back Arian Foster so it’ll be interesting to see if Hopkins can keep up this level of production. Still, with so many wide receivers off to slow starts (Alshon Jeffery, Calvin Johnson, Brandin Cooks) it’s hard to view Hopkins as anything less than WR1 going forward. And speaking of Arian Foster, he should be close to returning this week so sorry Alfred Blue owners, those 139 yards and a touchdown are likely going back on your bench. If Foster is back, he's automatically a RB1.

 

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Alright, it’s officially time to hit the panic button on Andrew Luck. Here’s the thing about Luck; last year, you could have dealt with his high amount of turnovers because the production was high enough to negate them. Now, Luck just isn’t producing at the same level. I highly doubt you can still get full value for him but if you can, I’d trade him now. He’s certainly going to have some big weeks coming up but after three lackluster showings in a row, it’s hard to say there isn’t more of those coming. Passing game aside, Frank Gore finally broke out in this game with 86 yards and two touchdowns. Perhaps this team starts leaning on Gore a little more until Luck can find his stride. I’m still a believer in him as a reliable RB2 this year so ideally this is a sign of things to come. Also, Andre Johnson is essentially worth dropping at this point. It’s sad but he looks to be all but done this year.

Marcus Mariota continues to be a reliable option in two-quarterback leagues as well as a solid bye week and injury fill in. In a league in which I own Ben Roethlisberger (sad face), I’m going to roll with Mariota in Ben’s absence. His 367 yards and two touchdowns were solid enough to ignore his two interceptions. Wide receiver Kendall Wright is having a sneakily productive year but he can’t be trusted as anything more than a WR3/flex play. I still think tight end Delanie Walker is the most reliable pass catcher on this team anyway. One last little tidbit of note here with running back Antonio Andrews out touching Bishop Sankey. This is another shrug worthy aspect of the box score but I will say this; I don’t trust that Sankey is the long term starter on this team mostly because I don’t think he’s that good. So in that regard I suppose Andrews is worth a speculative add in a deeper league, I’m just not dropping anyone of value to grab him.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams

Obviously the biggest piece of news here is the aforementioned injury to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger but it was nice to see running back Le’Veon Bell make an immediate impact in his first game back. Bell racked up 132 total yards between the ground and air, proving that he’s a PPR stud of a running back. This team should lean on him heavily in Ben’s absence so get ready to start splurging on him in daily leagues. Michel Vick looked rough around the edges upon filling in for the injured Ben but hopefully getting him some first team reps in practice benefits him before their Thursday night matchup with the Ravens. Ultimately, this will be Bell’s team for the next month or so.

I’m really struggling to find anything positive to say about the St. Louis offense so perhaps it’s best we keep this short and sweet. Todd Gurley was limited in his first NFL game but you can expect his role to gradually increase in the coming weeks. It’d be wise to leave him on your bench until we see something significant out of him as long as you have better options. Kenny Britt had seven receptions for 102 yards, another stat you can blindly ignore. This offense isn’t good enough to sustain any consistent fantasy value, especially through the air.

 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

This game was essentially a boxing match between wide receivers A.J. Green and Steve Smith. Green had an absolutely ridiculous day of 227 yards and two touchdowns while Smith finished with 186 and two scores of his own. Both of those performances completely negated the rushing game, leading to a lot of worries about both Jeremy Hill and Justin Forsett. I’m much more worried about the latter in regard to season-long value but I can’t say I didn’t tell you so. I’ve been avoiding Forsett like the plague since June and even with Lorenzo Taliaferro out, Forsett couldn’t put together a productive day. Time to bail on that backfield if you can but good luck getting decent value for him.

The Jeremy Hill/Giovani Bernard split is a lot less concerning for me mostly because of the fact that the Bengals came out and said they’re going with Bernard when the team is behind. To me that says their ideal situation is to run the ball with Jeremy Hill and if the defense can keep them in the game, he’s the guy they’d prefer to use. It’s frustrating for sure, but at least there’s still some clarity here. I’d still advocate trying to buy low on Hill if you can.

 

San Diego Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings

Welp, Adrian Peterson is back. 126 yards and two touchdowns should be enough to instill some confidence in him as a top two or three back the rest of the way. The rest of the Minnesota offense is essentially a dumpster fire so you can ignore all the other playmakers. This team is going to live and die by Peterson so it was reassuring to see him put together back-to-back big games.

Keenen Allen proved me wrong again, this time racking up 133 yards with two scores. I’m still not sold that this Charger offense is going to stop spreading the ball around enough to keep Allen as a consistent WR2. It’s possible that this particular performance could be attributed to the absence of tight end Ladarius Green. Either way, I’d be too worried about relying on him long-term so I’d much rather let someone else deal with that headache. Speaking of not being able to rely on San Diego Chargers, I’m concerned about Melvin Gordon. The surefire RB2 has been extremely disappointing to start the year. It’s tough to bail on him though considering the fact that he’s going to continue to get the bulk of the rushes. Chances are you don’t have a better RB2 option on your bench unless you scooped someone up off of waivers so you’re likely going to have to deal with Gordon.

 

Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns

The combination of running back Latavius Murray and wide receiver Amari Cooper proved to be a source of fantasy goodness in this matchup. Murray finished with 139 yards and a touchdown while Cooper has 134 yards of his own. Both players should be viewed as top-20 options at their respective positions going forward with Cooper having even higher value in PPR.

That’s really all you need to know about this game as no other key fantasy player contributed in significant fashion. Travis Benjamin did have another touchdown here so he’s still worth a flier in deeper leagues. Other than that, the Browns are too sporadic to rely on.

 

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets

The Eagles finally looked Eagles-esque in this game, particularly on the ground. With DeMarco Murray out, fellow signee Ryan Mathews piled up 108 yards, adding massive speculation to what this backfield will look like when both guys are healthy. Ideally you handcuffed Murray with Mathews but even if you didn’t, Mathews is well worth a spot in your lineup should he become the starter for a prolonged amount of time. It’s highly possible that Murray has lost too much of a step without the Dallas offensive line and that Mathews is in a better place to carry the ground game. Nevertheless, we’re in a holding pattern here as it’s not like Chip Kelly is going to show his hand in regard to who’s going to carry the load.

As it relates to the Jets, if you hadn’t heard already, Brandon Marshall is a beast. He’s played his way back into top-15 wide receiver territory as evidenced by his hot start through three weeks. This is probably the last week you can buy low on him so throw out an offer or two to the Marshall owner in your league. Personally, my goal is to deal a backup QB to the Roethlisberger owner in my league. That’s likely a move you can swing. Lastly, hopefully Chris Ivory can get back to full strength soon as he too is off to a stellar start and should easily end the year as a mid-tier RB2. Powell wasn’t very productive in his absence so that should tell you that Ivory has this starting gig on lockdown.

 

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

With Drew Brees out, Luke McCown stepped in at quarterback here but couldn’t find the endzone despite going 31 for 38 on passing attempts. The Saints offense hasn’t looked all that great even with Brees in the lineup so it’s no surprise that the team struggled with McCown. Both Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson found scored out of the backfield while Brandin Cooks had 79 yards on seven receptions. Virtually everyone on the Saints has disappointed thus far so I’m not sure there’s much you can do about anything. I’d still try and sell on all of the Saints but good luck getting decent value at this point. The more time passes with this being a lackluster offense, the lower everyone’s value will go.

The Carolina offense is going to run entirely through Cam Newton and Greg Olsen until Jonathan Stewart can turn it around. Newton has never really needed a pass catcher other than Olsen and he’s stringing together a solid fantasy year thus far. I was worried about him after Week 1 yet he seems to have proven me wrong so I’m back on board. Olsen finished with 134 and two scores, showing that he’s locked in as a top-four tight end, surprising no one. I do believe Stewart will come  around so perhaps it’s best to just play the matchups with him. As an example, you’ll want to start him next week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers followed by abruptly putting him back onto your bench the following game against Seattle. Play it smart with Stewart.

 

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers: Bad. Arizona Cardinals: Good. That essentially sums up this game. The 49ers have looked feeble through three games with only Carlos Hyde’s big Week 1 performance worth hanging on the fridge. Colin Kaepernick threw four interceptions here so there is literally nothing positive to take away on the San Francisco side of the ball. I don’t trust any pass catcher on the Niners anyway so it’s really just Carlos Hyde and a bunch of names in this offense. Hyde should be ok as a top-20 running back but with how bad this team has looked, there’s going to be weeks he disappoints.

Like it or not, Carson Palmer is probably going to finish the year as a top-10 fantasy quarterback. He’s off to a hot start through three games and has shown no signs of slowing down. Interestingly, his top target is the rejuvenated Larry Fitzgerald. I was a big proponent of fellow receiver John Brown in the offseason but it appears that Palmer prefers Fitzgerald. With how good Palmer has been, however, Brown still has value in his own right. Fitzgerald is clearly now the WR you want to own overall after another big day to the tune of 134 yards and two touchdowns. I still think he’s a WR3/low-end WR2 at best. Speaking of rejuvenated Cardinals, Chris Johnson had 110 yards and two touchdowns but with Andre Ellington likely back next week, this backfield is primed to head right back into a three-headed monster between those two backs and David Johnson. It’d be nice if one guy breaks away from the back, I just don’t see that happening anytime soon once they’re all on the field together.

 

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks

Despite all of their injuries, the Chicago Bears actually managed to hang tough with the Seahawks for the first half of this game before getting blown out in the second. The Bears offense is going to be pretty bleak with both Cutler and Jeffery out so hopefully they improve upon their return. Until then, Matt Forte is the only Bear you can rely on consistently. I suppose you can still count on Martellus Bennett and you likely have to start him if you own him, I’m just not confident Clausen can feed him the ball with enough consistency.

On the Seattle side of the ball, it would appear that Jimmy Graham’s public frustration in his role in the offense was rectified after the team went to him seven times for 83 yards and a touchdown. Hopefully this is a sign of what’s to come with Graham, as the team absolutely needs to play to his strengths. He’s not a blocking tight end; he’s a beast of a pass catcher, so they need to use him accordingly. Aside from Graham, Marshawn Lynch exited this game with an injury and should be reevaluated in the coming days. In his absence, rookie Thomas Lewis led the charge with 104 yards on 16 attempts. If Lynch were to miss any time, expect Lewis and Fred Jackson so split the workload with Lewis being the upside play.

 

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

Tyrod Taylor was just short of perfect in this game, throwing for three touchdowns without an interception. He’s emerged as a solid high-end QB2 with upside and should be added in all leagues at this point. Even more interesting than that, LeSean McCoy was limited once again here with Karlos Williams taking over to the tune of 110 yards and a score. The expectation is that McCoy might be given a week off to fully recover from his hamstring injury. If that were to be the case, Williams would be a borderline RB1 given his production thus far and should be owned in every league as well.

The Dolphins just looked flat out depleted here with only wide receiver Rishard Matthews having a productive day. Jarvis Landry did possess some PPR value with his eight receptions and 67 yards but Matthews outplayed him with 113 and two touchdowns. This is a team that will continue to spread the ball around, even when Ryan Tannehill is out there throwing three interceptions. A hobbled Lamar Miller was out touched and outran by Jonas Gray but I’m not reading too much into that. Miller is still this team’s primary back so you’re going have to wait it out if you’re a Lamar Miller owner.

 

Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions

Peyton Manning showed us once again that despite losing a bit of a step, he’s going to continue to produce at a high level. The passing game is what it is at this point with Manning spreading the ball around accordingly and throwing two touchdowns to Demaryius Thomas and Owen Daniels. The more concerning aspect of the Denver Broncos are the continuing struggles out of the backfield. Both C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman have struggled with neither guy pulling away. It’s time to hit the panic button here if it wasn’t already I just don’t think you’re going to get anything of value for either guy. Hopefully you were smart enough to draft both so you might benefit if either guy pulls away with the job. For now, I still prefer Anderson, but it’s a lot closer than I’m comfortable with.

Despite scoring a touchdown for the Lions, running back Joique Bell was completely outplayed by Ameer Abdullah. Bell had 10 rushes for a whopping six yards. It’s not even like Abdullah had a monster day either as he only had 23 yards it’s just clear which back was more productive. Ideally the Lions take note of this and decide to stick with one guy rather than go with a struggling Joique Bell. Calvin Johnson had an ok game with eight receptions for 77 yards but as Matthew Stafford continues to struggle, so will Megatron. This is another case of having to just roll with the punches with Calvin and hope it improves soon. Once Stafford is fully healthy, Megatron’s production should improve.

 

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