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Week 3 NFL Matchups Analysis (Part 1) - Start/Sit for Fantasy Football

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Below you will find part one of our Week 3 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Pierre Camus breaks down the first half of the Week 3 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis by Ben Ruppert (@Ben_Ruppert_21).

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

Editor's Note: Be sure to check out FantasyAces DFS contests for Week 3. New users that sign up on Fantasy Aces and make a $20 deposit will receive RotoBaller's full season NFL Premium Pass for free (including Premium DFS), normally a $59.99 value. Expert DFS research, sample lineups, matchup ratings and lots more!

 

Redskins @ Giants - Sunday 9/25 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Jordan Reed (TE, WAS) - The Giants' league-worst secondary last season has definitely improved, but they haven't faced a tight end with the skill set of Reed yet. The game is in New York, but the Skins will be desperate for a win. The problem for Washington hasn't been a lack of passing yards. Reed has been targeted 18 times, tied for first among all TEs. With Josh Doctson and Desean Jackson both questionable, Reed has a good chance to have his first breakout game of the season.

Eli Manning (QB, NYG) - Eli has had a resurgent season, completing 73.9% of his passes in the first two games, including three TD and just one pick. The Redskins have shown surprisingly little resistance on defense to opposing QBs, so don't expect him to slow down this week. He has low-end QB1 appeal in deep leagues.

Matchups We Hate

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, NYG) - Is this a revenge game? Maybe for the media, but the players will probably be more focused on actually winning. Still, OBJ/ODB will get a healthy dose of Josh Norman covering him. That aside, Beckham has already seen his targets get eaten into by rookie Sterling Shepard and a resurgent Victor Cruz. If he finds himself on the right side of a mismatch or the Washington secondary blows a coverage, he could prove me wrong with a big play. For now, I'm tempering my expectations from the OBJ we have come to know.

Rashad Jennings (RB, NYG) - Jennings owners should be concerned about the increased number of carries Shane Vereen saw last week (14 to Jennings' 13). Jennings has never been a true bellcow back and those who thought this year would be different might be proven wrong. The Redskins were gashed by DeAngelo Williams in Week 1, but this isn't the same type of running game. At 3.3 Y/A so far, Jennings doesn't figure to make a huge impact.

Notable Players

Victor Cruz (WR, NYG) - He had a big play and a big blunder last week, but the early part of 2016 has largely been a success for Cruz. He showed he is still a deep threat with a 40 yard gain against New Orleans and could find space against the embattled Bashaud Breeland. He isn't reliable enough to start as anything higher than a flex play, however.

 

Browns @ Dolphins - Sunday 9/25 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA) - Landry has proven to be matchup-proof even when the Dolphins are getting thumped (last week in New England). It is highly unlikely the Fins will face a deficit like last week, but with Arian Foster out, the passing game will still be an emphasis. He is a bonafide WR1 in full PPR formats and high-end WR2 everywhere else.

Matchups We Hate

Jay Ajayi (RB, MIA) - This isn't about the matchup so much as the player and the situation. Ajayi hasn't earned a starting job - he was given it by default. Kenyan Drake may see an increased role so the Dolphins can see what he can do. Ajayi has seen exactly 54 rush attempts in the NFL for an average of 3.7 Y/A. If he's going to bust out, this is the time to do it. I'm not holding my breath.

Anyone wearing a Browns jersey - Let's be honest with ourselves for a minute. Cody Kessler shouldn't be out there on the field starting an NFL game yet and he lost his best receiver in Corey Coleman. No other receiver poses a threat and the running backs will see overly stacked boxes, led by Ndamukong Suh. Don't take the risk here.

Notable Players

Cody Kessler (QB, CLE) - He very well could surprise us all with a Carson Wentz-like performance in his first NFL game. Or he could do like most first-time QBs and struggle mightily. Don't focus on the stat line so much as how he handles the pressure to get a feel for his maturity level.

Devante Parker (WR, MIA) - Parker could be in line for a big game if he is a full-go, but his hamstring is a lingering issue that won't completely go away. Parker was limited in practice on Wednesday, although he should be on the field Sunday. He has all the talent in the world, but there's always going to be injury risk with Parker, which makes him a boom-or-bust pick.

 

Lions @ Packers - Sunday 9/25 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB) - Relax. It's time for the annual Aaron Rodgers panic to cease, as they have a home game against division rivals Detroit. The Lions rank in the bottom 10 for passing defense and total defense after two games and facing a motivate Packers team won't help. This might be just what the doctor ordered for Rodgers to right the ship. Rodgers has a career 26/6 TD/INT rate against the Lions and a 105.9 QBR.

Marvin Jones Jr. (WR, DET) - Jones is quickly establishing himself as Matthew Stafford's favorite target. His 85 yards in Week 1 were trumped by 118 in Week 2. Jones could easily put up the type of numbers Stefon Diggs did against the Pack last week. He is a must-start for this game.

Eric Ebron (TE, DET) - Green Bay has given up the third-most FPPG to TE over two weeks and Ebron has climbed the pecking order in Detroit for targets. He has been targeted 12 times, resulting in 99 yards and a TD. He is outproducing both Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin so far, as he seems to have earned Stafford's trust. Ebron is approaching the top tier of a thin tight end position.

Matchups We Hate

Randall Cobb (WR, GB) - Cobb didn't take advantage of his role as the top dog in Green Bay's receiving corps last season and Jordy Nelson's return hasn't helped much either. In two games, Cobb has 11 catches, but is averaging just 9.0 Y/R - a figure that has declined in the last couple of years. If he isn't a big play threat, he is a marginal receiver who will get you a few points on receptions alone.

Notable Players

Dwayne Washington (RB, DET) - Washington will surely have a role in Detroit's running game sans Ameer Abdullah, but how big? Big D figures to see short-yardage work and could vulture a short touchdown if the opportunity presents itself, but he isn't worth the risk in PPR leagues.

Eddie Lacy (RB, GB) - He won't make the love list too often until he shows some semblance of consistency, but like Rodgers, this matchup could be just what he needs. It should be noted, however, that in five career games against Detroit, Lacy has a 3.4 Y/A and no touchdowns.

 

Vikings @ Panthers - Sunday 9/25 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Stefon Diggs (WR, MIN) - OK, it's time to admit that Diggs is legit. His tremendous 182 yard outburst in Week 2 followed a 103 yard game with Shaun Hill at the helm. The Bradford-Diggs connection might just win some leagues for fantasy owners this year. The Panthers were known for their defense a year ago, but remember that the secondary is now vastly inexperienced in comparison. No reason not to love Diggs this week, regardless of the price.

Kelvin Benjamin (WR, CAR) - Slow to recover from injury? Bah. Job stolen by Devin Funchess? Ha! Benjamin has jumped straight into the WR1 conversation and may be experiencing the fabled third-year WR breakout season. He is one of the top red zone threats in the league, catching three TD already. The Vikings don't have a shutdown corner or anyone who can size him up in the secondary, so expect the targets to continue increasing, especially with Jonathan Stewart out.

Matchups We Hate

Greg Olsen (TE, CAR) - Olsen has been his usual reliable self this year a 12-195-1 line in two games. The Vikings present a tough matchup, allowing just 4.9 fantasy PPG to the tight end so far. This should be a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair, meaning Olsen will be mostly TD-dependent. He is still a TE1, just on the lower end of the spectrum compared to last week.

Notable Players

Cam Newton (QB, CAR) - After a tough non-rematch against Denver to start the seasonNewton certainly played like the MVP against a weak 49ers team with four TD and 323 yards passing. Back to reality. The Vikings might be the second-toughest defense he will face this year and given the controversy surrounding this game, Newton's focus seems to be elsewhere in his media interviews. He is always a threat to reach the end zone with his legs and you aren't benching him regardless of matchup. DFS owners might want to look elsewhere for a far better value play this week.

Sam Bradford (QB, MIN) - Is this the year Bradford lives up to his lofty draft status? He isn't surrounded by a better set of skill players than he had in Philadelphia, but he might be in a better overall situation. See if he can build on last week's success before rolling with him in fantasy leagues. Right now could be the time to buy low if he puts up good numbers against an excellent Panthers team.

 

Broncos @ Bengals - Sunday 9/25 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love

C.J. Anderson (RB, DEN) - The Bengals are dead last in rushing YPG allowed so far at 138. Anderson has validated the faith Denver's front office put in him by playing the feature back role as well as they could have hoped. He has 166 yards and a pair of touchdowns so far. Look for him to add to that total as he firmly establishes himself as a top 10 RB this season.

Matchups We Hate

Andy Dalton (QB, CIN) - Andy Dalton has been limited with a hip injury, although he should still play this week. That aside, let's keep in mind that this is the top defense in the league and those padded aerial stats are sure to be cut in half this week. Dalton will make a strong play the rest of the way, but sometimes you just need to play the matchup game.

A.J. Green (WR, CIN) - Green missed a day of practice this week, but not for health-related problems. He enjoyed the birth of his first child (congrats A.J.)! Now, he has to face Chris Harris and Aqib Talib on Sunday. With few other receiving threats to ease pressure, Green should face stiff coverage all day. He took advantage of an aging Darrelle Revis, but won't  have that luxury this time around.

Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders (WR, DEN) - The Broncos of 2016 are nothing like they were just two years ago. If anything, they now resemble the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. A dominant defense, bruising running back and game manager at quarterback might equal a lot of wins, but it doesn't make for many exciting fantasy picks. The receivers have suffered the most and a matchup against the Bengals' tough secondary won't turn that around.

Notable Players

Trevor Siemian (QB, DEN) - He has proven to be a competent, if unexciting option at quarterback. For fantasy purposes, he should be left alone, especially against a tough defense like Cincy.

 

Raiders @ Titans - Sunday 9/25 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Tajae Sharpe (WR, TEN) - The rookie has already produced 11 receptions on 18 targets in two games. With Delanie Walker gimpy going into this contest, Sharpe could see even more action. Needless to say, the Raiders' prolifically bad defense weighs in his favor as well. He could very well hit paydirt for his first NFL touchdown.

DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN) - Likewise, the Raiders sieve of a defense should provide ample opportunities for Murray in the run game. He has also become one of the Titans' top receiving threats, which makes him more valuable across all league types. Derrick Henry is yet to threaten Murray's workload in any serious way, so Murray can be trusted as an RB2.

Matchups We Hate

Latavius Murray (RB, OAK) - Latavius Murray owners should be concerned about the fact he received only eight carries last week. They should be even more concerned that DeAndre Washington took seven carries and Jalen Richard saw six. This wasn't supposed to be a three-man RBBC, but all the talk of Murray being a workhorse seems to be false. Tennessee has been very good against the run so far, shutting down Adrian Peterson and the Lions' runners in successive weeks. Murray is still playable, but if you have a better option, roll with it.

Notable Players

Derek Carr (QB, OAK) - Carr is one of my favorite value plays week after week and continues to be underrated. This matchup won't afford him the chance to put up numbers like he did in the first two weeks, but he can be trusted as a starter regardless. Wait until he faces defenses like Denver and KC to bench him.

 

Ravens @ Jaguars - Sunday 9/25 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Breshad Perriman (WR, BAL) - Maybe I'm being a hater by not putting Mike Wallace in this spot, but I have a feeling Perriman might surprise and be the one to make an impact this week. He saw his targets increase from two to five last week and looks to be 100%. The Jags' soft secondary will give ample opportunity for plays to be made and Wallace won't be taking anybody by surprise any more. Call it a gut feeling, but Perriman has a good chance to see his first NFL touchdown. That or I'm projecting based on the fact I'm forced to start him in my experts league...

Matchups We Hate

T.J. Yeldon (RB, JAX) - Chris Ivory may take over as the lead back in Jaguar land, but even if he sits out again, do you really want to roll with Yeldon? A miserable 2.4 Y/A for a total of 67 yards don't inspire much hope. He has corralled 12 receptions, but that's about the extent of his ability. There's a reason the Jags felt compelled to throw so much money at Ivory, after all.

Dennis Pitta (TE, BAL) - Pitta broke out with nine catches for 102 yards against Cleveland, making him a popular waiver add this week. The Jaguars defense wouldn't seem to pose a big threat, but they've actually allowed just 209.5 YPG to opposing receivers, good for fourth in the league. Tight ends have scored 4.9 fantasy points per game in the first two. Pitta may revert to usual form despite the outward appearance of a choice matchup.

Notable Players

Allen Robinson (WR, JAX) - A-Rob is a must-start any time he hits the field, but that could be a problem this week. Robinson's status switched to questionable mid-week, which raises red flags. He will probably play, but if he's less than 100% it could affect his performance. The Jags offense has struggled enough as it is. Even though Robinson has been targeted plenty, it has only resulted in nine catches and zero TD. The Bortles regression is in full effect thus far and Robinson owners have suffered. Be wary going forward, but don't sell high just yet. If Corey Coleman can burn the Ravens for two scores, surely Robinson can strike gold at least once.

Chris Ivory (RB, JAX) - Ivory's status has been a huge mystery since the season began and not much has changed. If he does play, how effective will be and how he adjusts to playing behind a lesser O-line in Jacksonville remains to be seen. He can't be recommended until we have some visual evidence of his effectiveness.

 




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