RADIO
Week 2 of the NFL season is upon us! Along with overreactions that come with week 2 are my DFS GPP Value Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings. Notice that's a period not an exclamation point. That's because we all need to just relax and calmly digest what we saw in week 1.
Saquon Barkley will produce more fantasy points, I promise. Gardner Minshew is not going to complete such a high percentage of passes. And the Redskins are not going to win 16 games this season. No way. So let's all back away from the edge a little bit. Or don't. Because those people avoiding those under-producers and flocking to the high-producers from week 1 provide plenty of opportunity for those of us in GPPs.
Week 1 brings us a new slate, but for now I will often continue to reference some of last year's performances. And that starts with our first Week 2 value play for GPPs.
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Week 2 Quarterback DFS GPP Value Play
Jimmy Garoppolo @ New York Jets (Fanduel $7100 DraftKings $5700)
It amazes me how quickly Garoppolo went from "savior" to "afterthought". The knock of Jimmy G is that he rarely has the big game. He never brings the "high ceiling" that we as GPP players crave. In his seven year career, he's had give games of 300 or more.
But 2019 was the first year that Garoppolo played even 10 games, let alone the full 16 he played last year! And guess what, three of those five 300+ yard games came last year. And he has had slate-breaking games like when he passed for four TDs and 424 yards against Arizona last year. Can we put an end to the myth that his upside is limited?
Sure, he's match-up dependent. He's not going to have big games against teams like the Ravens, but he's taking on the Jets this weekend. The Jets passing defense was middle of the pack last year. They got off to a rough start last week, allowing the fourth most fantasy points to the QB position. There is no reason that Garoppolo can't pass for 300+ yards against this Jets Defense and throw a couple touchdowns. Priced as a mid-level QB2 at best, don't be surprised when Jimmy Grapes squishes the Jets with QB1 numbers.
Week 2 Running Back DFS GPP Value Play
Mark Ingram @ Houston (Fanduel $6200, DraftKings $5400)
After the JK Dobbins show last week, both seasonal and DFS players are jumping off Ingram like rats on the Titanic. That will make him very low-owned and those folks obviously don't know the Ravens like I do. One of the reasons the Ravens carry a bushel of RBs on their roster every year is they want to keep teams guessing which one is getting the rock on any given play. There is a reason the Ravens ran the fourth most plays with 2-RB formations last year. The Ravens have even said so publicly:
Greg Roman on dividing RB carries: "There's no exact science there. It's going to be different every week. We like to keep people guessing so it will happen the way it happens."
— Jeff Zrebiec (@jeffzrebiec) September 17, 2020
Call it a gut call if you wish, but I think Ingram sees a lot more touches this Sunday. We know Ingram can be a beast, coming off another 1K yard season to go with his ten touchdowns. And against the Houston defense who gave up the fifth most fantasy points to RBs last year, I really like his chances.
Week 2 Wide Receiver DFS GPP Value Play
Parris Campbell vs Minnesota (Fanduel $5300, DraftKings $4500)
Campbell's price went up this week, but he's still a great value on both sites. He caught six of nine targets last weekend, which was tied for team lead in targets. He is also taking on the Vikes at home this weekend. Yes, that same Vikings Defense that got torched by the Packers and gave up more fantasy points to WRs last week than any other team. The Vikes might not be the worst this week, but I don't see them suddenly be the stingiest either. Grab Campbell at a discounted rate while you can.
Week 2 Tight End DFS GPP Value Play
Logan Thomas vs Arizona (Fanduel $4700, DraftKings $3600)
I've got a new horse in my TE1 rankings and that is Logan Thomas. He caught four of eight targets for 37 yards and a touchdown, out-targeting every other Washington pass catcher except Terry McLaurin. With the up-tempo Arizona Cardinals offense next on the docket, Washington will likely be forced into a high-scoring game and/or find themselves playing from behind. Either of these options leads me to believe that Thomas will have another strong showing worthy of any of the top dozen TEs this week.
