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Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for the Week 17 Sunday Main Slate.
Last week’s picks for this slate finished in the green at 4-3, bringing our season record to 11-10 since taking over this column in Week 14. Our Sleeper DFS prop pick record across all slates sits at 92-72 entering Week 17.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are a few of our favorite prop picks for the Sunday main slate on Sleeper DFS.
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Week 17 Sleeper DFS Prop Picks: Sunday Main Slate
Rashid Shaheed OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards
Shaheed has been enjoying a nice finish to his 2023 season as the number-two receiver in the Saints' offense. In the three full games, Shaheed has played without Michael Thomas in the lineup, he has handled a 19.6% target share, a 27.3% air-yard share, and a 23.3% first-read share.
He enters Week 17 fresh off a nine-target, five-catch performance last week against the Rams. This week, he faces off with the Buccaneers, PFF’s third-easiest matchup for receivers. Since Week 11, the Bucs have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. They have allowed the fifth-most receptions to receivers in 2023.
Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool is in line with this pick, giving it a 23% edge with a Sharp App projected line of 52.1 receiving yards.
Justin Watson OVER 20.5 Receiving Yards
Much has been made of the Chiefs' recent struggles during a 3-5 stretch since Week 8. Justin Watson has been a surprising bright spot in the Kansas City receiver room, however. Watson is enjoying the best season of his six-year career in 2023, with career highs in all major statistical categories.
Watson has averaged 34.5 receiving yards over his last two games, helped by nine targets over that span. With the Chiefs looking to keep pace in the playoff race, he is a good bet to continue his recent success against the Bengals on Sunday.
The Bengals' defense is the 13th-best matchup for receivers this week, according to PFF’s strength of schedule metric. Cincinnati has given up the seventh-most half-PPR points to receivers in 2023.
PFF shows a 65.2% likelihood of this prop hitting. Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool agrees, giving it a 25.7% edge with a Sharp App projected line of 36 receiving yards.
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Justice Hill UNDER 7.5 Rushing Attempts
Justice Hill is a great sell-high candidate this week against the Dolphins. Hill was the main beneficiary of rookie Keaton Mitchell’s season-ending injury in Week 15, seeing a near season-high 62% of snaps last week in a convincing win over the Texans. He has reached eight or more attempts in two straight games after only hitting that mark three times in his previous 12 games.
This week, he has a tougher matchup against Miami, however, who gives up the sixth-fewest opponent rushing attempts per game. The Dolphins also rank in the top half of the NFL in defensive DVOA -- in Baltimore’s six games against top-16 defenses in DVOA, Hill has averaged 5.2 rushes and has only reached eight or more rushes once.
PFF backs this pick, giving the under a 73.5% likelihood of hitting.
Other Recommendations:
- Gardner Minshew OVER 3.5 rushing yards
- Kyren Williams OVER 0.5 anytime touchdown
- Demarcus Robinson OVER 31.5 receiving yards
- Jason Sanders OVER 6.5 kicking points
NOTE: An earlier version of this article had Jacoby Brissett included in the Other Recommendations section, who has since been ruled out for Sunday's game.
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