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Week 17 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR

Patrick Mahomes - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Injury News

Hello, you faithful Week 17 readers, and welcome to the final (unofficial) edition of my weekly rankings article where I stump for myself against the Expert Consensus Rankings. My hope is to help you understand why I’m significantly higher or lower on players than the crowd, but Week 17 is a bit different.

Since the ECR will fluctuate more than my weight around the holidays, I’m going to touch on those obnoxious resting scenarios and hopefully you can see within the tables who I'd prefer. That said, there are still some notable risers and fallers against the crowd. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, focusing here on QB, RB, WR and TE.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough intro, let’s get to it.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for the 2025 playoffs:

 

Week 17 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

Those in serious danger of not playing are Drew Brees and Dak Prescott, though I can’t advocate for playing Teddy Bridgewater or ____ at this time. The ripple effect for the Saints are obviously greater since they have more fantasy playmakers. You can only bench so many people, but it’s safe to say that no matter what, Brees cannot be relied upon. Prescott has stronger chances since Jerry Jones claims the Cowboys are going all-out against the Giants, who should appreciate being defeated for the higher draft pick.

Otherwise, I have Jameis Winston at No. 4 compared to an ECR of 11 as the Bucs host the Falcons in one of the two games Vegas has pegged for 50+ points. ATL-TB opened with a total of 49.5 and has bumped up to 51 at some books while OAK-KC opened at 54 but has fallen to 52 at several books. Even though Winston has dialed down the aggression and Peyton Barber has improved, Winston’s still a mobile QB with a subpar rushing attack. Since Winston regained the starting role in Week 12, Tampa Bay ranks 11th in both total plays run (316) and passing percentage (61%). Throw in Atlanta’s vulnerable secondary and we’ve got something.

The ECR loves Andrew Luck (My Rank: 9, ECR: 5) but I’m wary of propping up guys facing Tennessee’s defense, who have yielded just 18 passing TDs against 10 INTs. I also have Philip Rivers (16 vs. 10) and Baker Mayfield (21 vs. 17) well outside of QB1 territory, as all three of these guys face top-10 defenses re: fantasy points allowed to QBs. The Chargers have to travel into Denver, which typically isn’t great for anyone, but Denver’s offense is also terrible and is now down Phillip Lindsay. Yikes, I can see why the Vegas total is staying at 41.5.

Meanwhile, Mayfield traveling to Baltimore where that defense has playoff aspirations on the line is a horrific spot, and Vegas has Cleveland scoring just 17 points. The Ravens D continues to swarm and has allowed just 3,275 passing yards this season -- the third-fewest total -- and while Cleveland’s on the upswing, they’re still a young team that I can’t trust to overcome these odds.

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Patrick Mahomes KC QB 1 0
2 Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB 2 0
3 Aaron Rodgers GB QB 3 0
4 Jameis Winston TB QB 11 7
5 Matt Ryan ATL QB 4 -1
6 Deshaun Watson HOU QB 7 1
7 Jared Goff LAR QB 8 1
8 Russell Wilson SEA QB 6 -2
9 Andrew Luck IND QB 5 -4
10 Lamar Jackson BAL QB 9 -1
11 Nick Foles PHI QB 12 1
12 Tom Brady NE QB 13 1
13 Josh Allen BUF QB 14 1
14 Sam Darnold NYJ QB 16 2
15 Kirk Cousins MIN QB 15 0
16 Philip Rivers LAC QB 10 -6
17 Mitch Trubisky CHI QB 18 1
18 Derek Carr OAK QB 19 1
19 Drew Brees NO QB 26 7
20 Eli Manning NYG QB 22 2
21 Baker Mayfield CLE QB 17 -4
22 Josh Johnson WAS QB 21 -1
23 Dak Prescott DAL QB 23 0
24 Blake Bortles JAC QB 28 4
25 Matthew Stafford DET QB 20 -5
26 Case Keenum DEN QB 24 -2
27 Teddy Bridgewater NO QB 30 3
28 Nick Mullens SF QB 25 -3
29 Jeff Driskel CIN QB 29 0
30 Blaine Gabbert TEN QB 34 4
31 Ryan Tannehill MIA QB 27 -4
32 Kyle Allen CAR QB 33 1
33 Josh Rosen ARI QB 32 -1
34 Taysom Hill NO QB 36 2

 

Week 17 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

With James Conner practicing in full on Wednesday, I’m going to line him up as Pittsburgh’s starter in my ranks at No. 11. The Chiefs appear to have Spencer Ware (32 vs. 60) returning, and I imagine he picks up ~35% of the snaps alongside Damien Williams (16 vs. 7) and a smattering of Darrel Williams and Charcandrick West (neither are playable). As you can see, I still prefer Damien Williams and the crowd might feel Ware isn’t going to play, though I’d think KC wants Ware to see game action before the playoffs.

The Texans report Lamar Miller (33 vs. 44) will play in Week 17, which will help balance their offense since Alfred Blue just isn’t good and D’Onta Foreman can’t handle that many touches in his second game back. Miller’s a reinjury risk with perhaps 50% of the RB work as seven-point favorites over Jacksonville with a lousy 40-point total.

Then there’s New Orleans again, who may see Dwayne Washington be their leading rusher over Alvin Kamara or Mark Ingram. None of them are viable options. I’ll understand if you want to believe the aforementioned Jerry Jones, but Ezekiel Elliott (30 vs. 16) is going to sit in “barely flexible” territory from me. He’s a stud, but unless we hear something definitive from the coaches and players closer to the game then both Zeke and Rod Smith are DFS tourney plays only.

And while Elijah McGuire (24 vs. 15) helped many fantasy owners to a Week 16 win, I have a hard time buying into the Jets ground game since they’re 13.5-point underdogs and the Jets only run the ball 33% of the time when down by seven points or more. Luckily, McGuire is involved in the passing game as well, but New England held he and Isaiah Crowell to just 86 total yards in Week 12.

Further down the ranking tables, you’ll find Darren Sproles (47 vs. 37), who turned 12 touches into 108 yards and a touchdown in Week 16 and seems to have caught everyone’s attention too. The thing is, Sproles is the hurry-up receiving back that matched the crazy shootout that Philly was engaged in against the Texans, but a date against Washington should be much different. The Eagles are favored by a touchdown despite being on the road, which should lend itself more to Josh Adams as they power over a broken Washington squad.

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Saquon Barkley NYG RB 1 0
2 Melvin Gordon LAC RB 2 0
3 Chris Carson SEA RB 3 0
4 Derrick Henry TEN RB 4 0
5 Sony Michel NE RB 6 1
6 Joe Mixon CIN RB 5 -1
7 Nick Chubb CLE RB 10 3
8 Jamaal Williams GB RB 7 -1
9 Dalvin Cook MIN RB 9 0
10 C.J. Anderson LAR RB 12 2
11 James Conner PIT RB 44 33
12 Marlon Mack IND RB 11 -1
13 David Johnson ARI RB 14 1
14 Christian McCaffrey CAR RB 26 12
15 Gus Edwards BAL RB 13 -2
16 Damien Williams KC RB 8 -8
17 Jeff Wilson SF RB 16 -1
18 Peyton Barber TB RB 19 1
19 Royce Freeman DEN RB 22 3
20 Adrian Peterson WAS RB 17 -3
21 Tarik Cohen CHI RB 21 0
22 Leonard Fournette JAC RB 20 -2
23 Jordan Howard CHI RB 27 4
24 Elijah McGuire NYJ RB 15 -9
25 Tevin Coleman ATL RB 30 5
26 Josh Adams PHI RB 28 2
27 Doug Martin OAK RB 24 -3
28 LeSean McCoy BUF RB 29 1
29 Alvin Kamara NO RB 39 10
30 Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB 25 -5
31 James White NE RB 23 -8
32 Spencer Ware KC RB 59 27
33 Lamar Miller HOU RB 52 19
34 Kenyan Drake MIA RB 31 -3
35 Mark Ingram NO RB 49 14
36 Kalen Ballage MIA RB 33 -3
37 Jalen Richard OAK RB 37 0
38 Mike Davis SEA RB 40 2
39 Jaylen Samuels PIT RB 18 -21
40 Zach Zenner DET RB 34 -6
41 Kenneth Dixon BAL RB 32 -9
42 Dion Lewis TEN RB 38 -4
43 Brian Hill ATL RB 35 -8
44 John Kelly LAR RB 48 4
45 Rod Smith DAL RB 58 13
46 Nyheim Hines IND RB 43 -3
47 Darren Sproles PHI RB 36 -11
48 Theo Riddick DET RB 42 -6
49 Rex Burkhead NE RB 54 5
50 Latavius Murray MIN RB 45 -5
51 Wendell Smallwood PHI RB 50 -1
52 Justin Jackson LAC RB 47 -5
53 LeGarrette Blount DET RB 51 -2
54 Rashaad Penny SEA RB 57 3
55 Duke Johnson CLE RB 53 -2
56 D'Onta Foreman HOU RB 56 0
57 Devontae Booker DEN RB 55 -2
58 Austin Ekeler LAC RB 46 -12
59 Alfred Blue HOU RB 41 -18
60 Chris Thompson WAS RB 60 0
61 Cameron Artis-Payne CAR RB 61 0
62 Jacquizz Rodgers TB RB 62 0
63 Trenton Cannon NYJ RB 64 1
64 Dwayne Washington NO RB 68 4
65 Carlos Hyde JAC RB 65 0
66 Giovani Bernard CIN RB 63 -3
67 Keith Ford BUF RB 67 0
68 Charcandrick West KC RB 73 5
69 Brandon Bolden MIA RB 76 7
70 Chase Edmonds ARI RB 66 -4
71 Cordarrelle Patterson NE WR 93 22
72 David Williams JAC RB 83 11
73 Kyle Juszczyk SF RB 77 4
74 Stevan Ridley PIT RB 69 -5
75 Wayne Gallman NYG RB 75 0
76 Darrel Williams KC RB 79 3
77 Zach Line NO RB 89 12
78 James Develin NE RB 82 4
79 Kapri Bibbs GB RB 80 1
80 Ronald Jones II TB RB 71 -9
81 Byron Marshall WAS RB 95 14
82 Elijhaa Penny NYG RB 96 14
83 Alfred Morris SF RB 70 -13
84 Jordan Wilkins IND RB 72 -12
85 Ty Montgomery BAL RB 85 0
86 J.D. McKissic SEA RB 98 12
87 Mark Walton CIN RB 88 1
88 Ameer Abdullah MIN RB 97 9
89 T.J. Yeldon JAC RB 74 -15
90 Justin Davis LAR RB 99 9
91 Javorius Allen BAL RB 87 -4
92 Trey Edmunds PIT RB 92 0
93 Detrez Newsome LAC RB 84 -9
94 Anthony Sherman KC RB 94 0
95 Benny Cunningham CHI RB 90 -5
96 Andy Janovich DEN RB 91 -5
97 Deandre Washington OAK RB 81 -16
98 Taquan Mizzell CHI RB 86 -12
99 Tommy Bohanon JAC RB 101 2
100 Alex Armah CAR RB 100 0
101 CJ Ham MIN RB 110 9
102 Roosevelt Nix PIT RB 114 12
103 Matthew Dayes SF RB 103 0
104 Jamize Olawale DAL RB 116 12

 

Week 17 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

I’ve put Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper and Odell Beckham Jr. in a cluster around WR40-42 but once again, they’re not trustworthy -- and if you must trust one, it’s Cooper against the Giants. Players that are lesser thought of such as Jordy Nelson (25 vs. 31), Mohamed Sanu (26 vs. 35), Jamison Crowder (31 vs. 39) and even Ted Ginn (33 vs. 81) are preferable. Nelson, Sanu and Crowder are all going against defenses worth attacking, but Ginn is the most noticeable beneficiary of the Saints benching studs after he slid right into eight targets after being activated from the IR last week. He easily overtook Tre’Quan Smith and company in the passing game and still has an incredible ceiling thanks to his speed.

I’m surprised to see everyone else so high on Broncos receivers. I have Courtland Sutton (34 vs. 28), Daesean Hamilton (35 vs. 25) and Tim Patrick (48 vs. 41) all considerably lower, as Vegas pegs this as a 24-17 road victory for the Chargers and Denver is coming off of an embarrassing loss to Oakland. No Lindsay hamstrings the rushing attack and decreases their chances at hitting the red zone, but also these guys haven’t performed against D’s such as LAC’s.

Denver’s faced Cincinnati, San Francisco, Cleveland and Oakland over their last four games. FootballOutsiders’ DVOA pass defense ranking for each team is respectively 28th, 23rd, 11th and 30th. The Chargers are seventh. Sutton hung 4-85-1 on CIN and 6-65-1 against OAK, but posted an ugly 2-14-0 at San Fran and 5-42-0 versus CLE. Hamilton found paydirt against SF and OAK, but the 7-46-0 line against CLE is more likely in this spot and he’s yet to top 50 yards in a game. But at least both get targeted in the red zone, as Patrick has only seen one RZ opportunity and that came back in Week 2.

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Antonio Brown PIT WR 1 0
2 Julio Jones ATL WR 3 1
3 Davante Adams GB WR 2 -1
4 Tyreek Hill KC WR 4 0
5 DeAndre Hopkins HOU WR 5 0
6 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT WR 6 0
7 Robert Woods LAR WR 8 1
8 Mike Evans TB WR 9 1
9 T.Y. Hilton IND WR 7 -2
10 Julian Edelman NE WR 10 0
11 Adam Thielen MIN WR 12 1
12 Brandin Cooks LAR WR 15 3
13 Keenan Allen LAC WR 11 -2
14 Stefon Diggs MIN WR 13 -1
15 Alshon Jeffery PHI WR 16 1
16 Kenny Golladay DET WR 14 -2
17 Tyler Lockett SEA WR 18 1
18 Doug Baldwin SEA WR 19 1
19 Robby Anderson NYJ WR 17 -2
20 Calvin Ridley ATL WR 21 1
21 Allen Robinson CHI WR 22 1
22 Corey Davis TEN WR 23 1
23 Robert Foster BUF WR 20 -3
24 Josh Reynolds LAR WR 30 6
25 Jordy Nelson OAK WR 29 4
26 Mohamed Sanu ATL WR 34 8
27 Sterling Shepard NYG WR 26 -1
28 Adam Humphries TB WR 27 -1
29 Jarvis Landry CLE WR 24 -5
30 Dede Westbrook JAC WR 33 3
31 Jamison Crowder WAS WR 37 6
32 Mike Williams LAC WR 31 -1
33 Ted Ginn NO WR 77 44
34 Courtland Sutton DEN WR 28 -6
35 DaeSean Hamilton DEN WR 25 -10
36 D.J. Moore CAR WR 42 6
37 Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR 32 -5
38 Chris Godwin TB WR 35 -3
39 Curtis Samuel CAR WR 43 4
40 Michael Thomas NO WR 44 4
41 Amari Cooper DAL WR 40 -1
42 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG WR 94 52
43 John Ross CIN WR 39 -4
44 Golden Tate PHI WR 48 4
45 Marquise Goodwin SF WR 62 17
46 Taywan Taylor TEN WR 56 10
47 Zay Jones BUF WR 36 -11
48 Tim Patrick DEN WR 38 -10
49 Kenny Stills MIA WR 53 4
50 Kendrick Bourne SF WR 65 15
51 Chris Conley KC WR 45 -6
52 Donte Moncrief JAC WR 47 -5
53 Isaiah McKenzie BUF WR 74 21
54 Taylor Gabriel CHI WR 49 -5
55 Nelson Agholor PHI WR 41 -14
56 Michael Gallup DAL WR 57 1
57 Tyrell Williams LAC WR 55 -2
58 Deandre Carter HOU WR 71 13
59 DeSean Jackson TB WR 70 11
60 Josh Doctson WAS WR 66 6
61 Chris Hogan NE WR 46 -15
62 Equanimeous St. Brown GB WR 67 5
63 David Moore SEA WR 61 -2
64 Seth Roberts OAK WR 64 0
65 Marcell Ateman OAK WR 68 3
66 Antonio Callaway CLE WR 52 -14
67 Michael Crabtree BAL WR 60 -7
68 John Brown BAL WR 50 -18
69 Trent Sherfield ARI WR 81 12
70 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB WR 54 -16
71 Willie Snead BAL WR 63 -8
72 Danny Amendola MIA WR 75 3
73 Chester Rogers IND WR 58 -15
74 Anthony Miller CHI WR 51 -23
75 Rashard Higgins CLE WR 59 -16
76 Keith Kirkwood NO WR 69 -7
77 Cole Beasley DAL WR 78 1
78 Jermaine Kearse NYJ WR 79 1
79 Devante Parker MIA WR 73 -6
80 Cody Core CIN WR 99 19
81 Dontrelle Inman IND WR 85 4
82 Michael Floyd WAS WR 95 13
83 Devin Funchess CAR WR 76 -7
84 Mike Wallace PHI WR 112 28
85 Breshad Perriman CLE WR 86 1
86 Tre'Quan Smith NO WR 72 -14
87 Travis Benjamin LAC WR 88 1
88 Cordarrelle Patterson NE WR 82 -6
89 Brice Butler MIA WR 103 14
90 Alex Erickson CIN WR 109 19
91 Aldrick Robinson MIN WR 84 -7
92 Jaron Brown SEA WR 100 8
93 Jake Kumerow GB WR 87 -6
94 Trent Taylor SF WR 92 -2
95 Kelvin Benjamin KC WR 93 -2
96 Ryan Switzer PIT WR 105 9
97 Randall Cobb GB WR 110 13
98 Jordan Matthews PHI WR 97 -1
99 Zach Pascal IND WR 113 14
100 Phillip Dorsett NE WR 104 4
101 Bennie Fowler NYG WR 106 5
102 Ryan Grant IND WR 101 -1
103 James Washington PIT WR 98 -5
104 Keelan Cole JAC WR 91 -13
105 Andy Jones DET WR 118 13
106 TJ Jones DET WR 90 -16
107 Cody Latimer NYG WR 124 17
108 Chad Williams ARI WR 119 11
109 Torrey Smith CAR WR 128 19
110 Tajae Sharpe TEN WR 89 -21
111 Jarius Wright CAR WR 96 -15
112 Andre Roberts NYJ WR 116 4
113 Allen Hurns DAL WR 102 -11
114 Eli Rogers PIT WR 107 -7
115 Russell Shepard NYG WR 130 15
116 J.J. Nelson ARI WR 125 9
117 Keke Coutee HOU WR 83 -34
118 Kevin White CHI WR 132 14
119 Deonte Thompson BUF WR 122 3
120 Chris Moore BAL WR 121 1
121 Justin Hardy ATL WR 117 -4
122 Vyncint Smith HOU WR 114 -8
123 Corey Coleman NYG WR 111 -12
124 Josh Bellamy CHI WR 123 -1
125 Darius Jennings TEN WR 120 -5
126 Laquon Treadwell MIN WR 138 12
127 Tommylee Lewis NO WR 136 9
128 Pharoh Cooper ARI WR 140 12
129 Leonte Carroo MIA WR 115 -14
130 Josh Malone CIN WR 126 -4
131 Demarcus Robinson KC WR 80 -51
132 Cam Batson TEN WR 144 12
133 Austin Carr NO WR 108 -25
134 J'mon Moore GB WR 146 12
135 Richie James SF WR 127 -8
136 Auden Tate CIN WR 147 11
137 Khadarel Hodge LAR WR 149 12

 

Week 17 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

Tight ends outside of Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz have been fickle all season long, and it won’t get easier in Week 17. Eric Ebron has been a red-zone machine but will need to clear concussion protocol in order to play. Evan Engram gets hammered with targets when Odell Beckham Jr. misses time, making him a top-six option. Jaylen Samuels becomes nearly impossible to trust if James Conner is active.

Looks like the Packers aren’t going down without a fight, and while Jimmy Graham (13 vs. 18) wasn’t a part of Week 16’s fun, he’s garnered 24 targets over his last four games and Green Bay stand as eight-point favorites over Detroit. While I love siding with Aaron Rodgers, I may wind up ranking Gerald Everett (14 vs. 17) over him by game time. The Rams could go up big early against the 49ers and Everett has turned into Jared Goff’s safety blanket, catching five passes in Week 16 (for only 28 yards) in his third straight week of six or more targets. Looks like that in an offense with this potential is worth a lot!

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Travis Kelce KC TE 1 0
2 Zach Ertz PHI TE 2 0
3 George Kittle SF TE 3 0
4 Eric Ebron IND TE 14 10
5 Rob Gronkowski NE TE 6 1
6 Evan Engram NYG TE 4 -2
7 Jaylen Samuels PIT RB 21 14
8 Jared Cook OAK TE 5 -3
9 Vance McDonald PIT TE 9 0
10 Cameron Brate TB TE 7 -3
11 Chris Herndon IV NYJ TE 10 -1
12 Austin Hooper ATL TE 11 -1
13 Jimmy Graham GB TE 18 5
14 Gerald Everett LAR TE 17 3
15 David Njoku CLE TE 8 -7
16 Trey Burton CHI TE 13 -3
17 Kyle Rudolph MIN TE 12 -5
18 Ian Thomas CAR TE 15 -3
19 C.J. Uzomah CIN TE 16 -3
20 Dallas Goedert PHI TE 20 0
21 Jeremy Sprinkle WAS TE 36 15
22 Blake Jarwin DAL TE 31 9
23 Mark Andrews BAL TE 19 -4
24 Benjamin Watson NO TE 25 1
25 Antonio Gates LAC TE 22 -3
26 Levine Toilolo DET TE 37 11
27 Ed Dickson SEA TE 29 2
28 Jason Croom BUF TE 38 10
29 Jordan Thomas HOU TE 27 -2
30 Matt LaCosse DEN TE 32 2
31 Nick Vannett SEA TE 23 -8
32 Anthony Firkser TEN TE 24 -8
33 Ryan Griffin HOU TE 39 6
34 Tyler Higbee LAR TE 26 -8
35 James O'Shaughnessy JAC TE 33 -2
36 Jesse James PIT TE 30 -6
37 Mo Alie-Cox IND TE 34 -3
38 Josh Hill NO TE 41 3
39 Ricky Seals-Jones ARI TE 28 -11
40 Luke Willson DET TE 51 11
41 Rhett Ellison NYG TE 50 9
42 Demetrius Harris KC TE 46 4
43 MyCole Pruitt TEN TE 42 -1
44 Brian Parker DEN TE 47 3
45 Virgil Green LAC TE 45 0
46 Lance Kendricks GB TE 43 -3
47 Darren Waller OAK TE 49 2
48 Adam Shaheen CHI TE 52 4
49 Jermaine Gresham ARI TE 53 4
50 Logan Thomas BUF TE 48 -2
51 Lee Smith OAK TE 62 11
52 Mike Gesicki MIA TE 40 -12
53 Darren Fells CLE TE 60 7
54 Scott Simonson NYG TE 65 11
55 Luke Stocker TEN TE 59 4
56 Jordan Leggett NYJ TE 58 2
57 Maxx Williams BAL TE 64 7
58 Jordan Akins HOU TE 54 -4
59 Hayden Hurst BAL TE 35 -24
60 Xavier Grimble PIT TE 69 9
61 Nick Boyle BAL TE 56 -5
62 Dalton Schultz DAL TE 63 1
63 Nick O'Leary MIA TE 67 4
64 Blake Bell JAC TE 61 -3
65 Chris Manhertz CAR TE 72 7
66 Antony Auclair TB TE 66 0
67 Eric Tomlinson NYJ TE 71 4
68 Seth DeValve CLE TE 73 5
69 Matt Lengel CIN TE 76 7
70 Robert Tonyan GB TE 75 5

More Fantasy Football Analysis


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




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