Week 16 IDP Fantasy Football Rankings

Before you even ask, yes, we are aware that our COVID-centered intros are becoming a bit of a broken record. That said, we must keep coming back to this particular record because it continues to be the biggest factor in fantasy football right now. While COVID went much of this year without impacting any NFL games, it is now deciding countless fantasy championships, like some fat child-king of Westeros who gets his jollies off of kicking his jesters in the junk. And that’s just our luck, isn’t it?

All of this is to say COVID will play a particularly significant role in our rankings this week. By this, we mean two things. First, our rankings will take into account when games are being played. So if you have a defender going on Thursday and a similarly valuable defender going on Sunday or Monday, we may favor the tackler who plays earlier. The reason for this is that you cannot predict whether your Sunday player will come down with COVID on Friday or Saturday night, rendering him unavailable. If you have someone almost as good who you know will play on Thursday, why risk going with a Sunday player with more question marks and risk?

The second way we will factor COVID into our rankings this week is by discounting players on "outbreak teams." By this, we mean that if a Kansas City Chief and a San Francisco 49er are close in our rankings, we will likely lean towards the 49er simply because his team isn't experiencing the same level of an outbreak that the Chiefs are right now. Because this is the fantasy playoffs, you have to mask your teams from unnecessary risks and avoid guys who may be more likely to get a COVID-IR designation this week. While we obviously cannot predict who will get sick, we can play the odds by prioritizing players in less infected locker rooms and starting comparable talents who play earlier in the week…. And with that said, let's get to our IDP rankings, shall we?

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Top-30 Fantasy Defensive Linemen of the Week

DL Streamer of the Week: Arden Key, San Francisco 49ers

Key was our best bargain in this week's IDP Waivers column, and a lot of that had to do with his matchups over the next two weeks. Key hasn't seen elite usage in San Francisco, but that hasn't hurt his upside in fantasy too much. Key has totaled five sacks in his past seven games despite playing less than half the 49ers' snaps. He has gotten at least a half-sack in all but one of those contests.

This week Key has a plus matchup against a Titans offensive line sporting an 8.7% Adjusted Sack Rate (fifth-worst in the NFL). Plus, this is an offense that provided HUGE fantasy totals to three different Steelers last week. Tennessee’s offense isn’t the only thing to like about this game for Key, though. If you play Key you also get the advantage of locking in a starter with upside on Thursday, rather than crossing your fingers that a Sunday starter will stay off the COVID list.

Another Underrated Matchup for Thursday: The 49ers are one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL, but they are incredibly weak at the right guard spot. Jeffery Simmons lines up directly over that position nearly one-third of the time, putting him in a position to make several TFLs and collect a healthy tackle total. This week he's a viable DL2 option, despite a recent cold streak that has rendered him a DL3 or worse on many lists.

DL Fade of the Week: Jonathan Greenard, Houston Texans

The expectation right now is that Greenard has a good chance to come off the COVID list in time to play the Chargers this weekend. If he does manage to do so, he is a very risky play.

If you were to listen to commentators calling Chargers games this year, you’d think Los Angeles was a great matchup for pass rushers like Greenard. The general opinion of many analysts seems to be the boys in powder blue still struggle in pass protection, but that's a leftover narrative from 2020. In fact, all of the Chargers' starters on the offensive line have earned elite pass-blocking grades from PFF this year, including each of their edge protectors. That is why Justin Herbert has suffered just 1.8 sacks per game in his past seven contests, despite taking four in a rough matchup with Cincinnati.

While it's true Corey Linsley could be out with COVID this week, a huge loss for this line, Greenard has lined up on the interior on exactly two snaps this year, so he shouldn't benefit from Linsley’s absence. Greenard looks to be more bust than boom this week.

Higher Profile Fades: We are also discounting the Panthers' pass rushers, if just a little bit, thanks to their matchup with Tampa Bay. While we still rank them as DL2 options, Haason Reddick and Brian Burns fall just outside of the DL1 conversation for us this week. You can start them, but we don't consider them top-ten plays.

Top-30 Fantasy Linebackers of the Week

LB Streamer of the Week: Zach Cunningham, Tennessee Titans

Cunningham’s stock has slipped considerably since his release from the Texans, and rightfully so. That said, if you are considering him in the context you should (as an LB3), then there is value to be found here.

Fantasy managers should be encouraged by the 67% snap share that the Vanderbilt product saw in his very first action with the Titans. That kind of playing time is a good sign for a player who hasn't been with the team for long. You also have to like the odds of that snap rate increasing in Week 16 with David Long Jr. already ruled out and Jayon Brown playing half of the snaps that Cunningham did last week.

Another reason to like Cunningham is his plus matchup with the 49ers this week. San Francisco is the fourth most run-heavy team in the NFL, and their passing game goes through their tight end. That spells lots of opportunities for Cunningham, who is a risky but attractive player available in most IDP leagues.

LB Fade of the Week: Philadelphia Eagles Linebackers

As always, we caution that this fade does not mean you are automatically benching your Eagles linebackers. Both T.J. Edwards and Alex Singleton carry solid tackle floors on a week-to-week basis, and they are arguably better options than our streamer this week (Cunningham). That said, these ‘backers are fades for us while Cunningham is a streamer because we disagree with current industry expectations for these players.

While many in the IDP world are ranking Edwards and Singleton as LB1 options, their matchup this week comes with concerns. Namely, the Giants are averaging the fifth-fewest rush attempts in the NFL without Daniel Jones. You would expect this offense to commit to the run with Mike Glennon under center, but instead they’ve gone the other direction and thrown more. That trend should only continue, regardless of whether Jake Fromm or Glennon starts, because the Giants can’t run the ball consistently and they cannot stop opposing offenses.

With the Giants offense projecting as an inefficient pass-first unit going against a ball control Eagles team, we cannot fit either of the Eagles’ starting linebackers into our top-ten. Because other websites are ranking them that highly, we consider both of these players to be fades, as they are unlikely to return on industry projections. Consider them to be sturdy LB2 or LB3 options with limited upside.

Top-30 Fantasy Defensive Backs of the Week

DB Streamer of the Week: Chidobe Awuzie, Cincinnati Bengals

The Ravens have transitioned from setting records for rush attempts to being one of the most pass-oriented offenses in the NFL this year. Baltimore's 2021 change in philosophy has been a move of necessity, and it’s on that has only increased as the season has gone on. In fact, the Ravens have risen to the seventh most pass-heavy offense in the NFL over the past three weeks.

Baltimore’s trend towards the pass should spell good things for a corner like Awuzie, who has been active in run support and coverage this year. The former Colorado Buffalo should see plenty of time against Marquise Brown as well, with Brown averaging 11.1 targets per game over his past seven. Bump Awuzie up in both your CB and DB rankings this week.

DB Fade of the Week: Xavier McKinney, New York Giants

McKinney is crashing hard after a hot streak in the middle of this season. After totaling five interceptions and a touchdown between Weeks 6-12, McKinney has zero turnovers and just six solo tackles across his past three games. What's worse, McKinney is going up against an Eagles offense that runs the ball more than anyone.

Philadelphia's league-leading rush percentage is concerning for a safety who spends 85% of his time in coverage, with 72.8% playing high-safety. While McKinney remains a promising young safety worth stashing in dynasty leagues, he only merits consideration as a low-end DB3 right now. His spotty production and a low-volume matchup make him far riskier than many seem to think, and we just cannot rank him where we’d like. He’s a big play-dependent asset against Philly.

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