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Gladys Tyler evaluates red zone stats for wide receivers and tight ends to find the biggest risers and fallers heading into Week 15 and identifies WR/TE with touchdown upside.
I was thinking, why are the red zone risers and fallers so important, and then I came across this article from Sharp Football Analysis, and suddenly it all made sense. "In the past decade, 74.1% of all offensive touchdowns have come from the red zone." And if you come across defenses that are stingy in the red zone trips of their opponents, then you know you have potential for kicker scoring (if you still believe in that stuff).
Remember, this week is not only the beginning of your fantasy playoffs but also Apocalyptic-Covid. Check and recheck to make sure your lineups are Covid free!
Thanks to Footballguys.com, teamrankings.com, flurrysports.com, sharpfootballanalysis.com, and rotoballer.com for their stats and references.
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Top Red Zone Passing QBs
(min. 25 Total Red Zone TDs)
| PLAYER | INSIDE 20 | INSIDE 10 | WEEK 15 OPP. | TOTAL RED ZONE TD |
| Tom Brady | 104 attempts, 64 completions | 46 attempts 25 completions | New Orleans Saints | 44 |
| Matthew Stafford | 92 attempts 48 completions | 46 attempts 21 completions | Seattle Seahawks | 42 |
| Justin Herbert | ||||
| Josh Allen | 85 attempts 48 completions | 37 attempts 21 completions | Carolina Panthers | 35 |
| Patrick Mahomes | ||||
| Aaron Rodgers | 76 attempts 42 completions | 39 attempts 22 completions | Baltimore Ravens | 34 |
| Kirk Cousins | 60 attempts 36 completions | 28 attempts 17 completions | Chicago Bears | 33 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 53 attempts 32 completions | 27 attempts 14 completions | Cincinnati Bengals | 25 |
| Dak Prescott | 66 attempts 38 completions | 20 attempts 15 completions | New York Giants | 27 |
| Matt Ryan | 56 attempts 32 completions | 26 attempts 14 completions | San Francisco 49ers | 25 |
| Carson Wentz | 53 attempts 29 completions | 33 attempts 18 completions | New England Patriots | 25 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 60 attempts 33 completions | 33 attempts 18 completions | Tennessee Titans | 25 |
Top 11 Red Zone WR/TE
| PLAYER | TARGETS, REC. INSIDE 20 | TARGETS, REC. INSIDE 10 | WEEK 15 OPP. | TOTAL RED ZONE TD |
| Cooper Kupp | 29 targets
20 receptions |
14 targets
8 receptions |
Seattle Seahawks | 17 |
| Chris Godwin | 25 targets
20 receptions |
8 targets
5 receptions |
New Orleans Saints | 7 |
| Stefon Diggs | 22 targets
13 receptions |
9 targets
6 receptions |
Carolina Panthers | 11 |
| Tyreek Hill | L.A. Chargers | |||
| Justin Jefferson | 18 targets
9 receptions |
9 targets
3 receptions |
Chicago Bears | 9 |
| Davante Adams | 17 targets
11 receptions |
9 targets
6 receptions |
Baltimore Ravens | 10 |
| Cameron Brate | 17 targets
9 receptions |
6 targets
2 receptions |
New Orleans Saints | 4 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 17 targets
11 receptions |
9 targets
7 receptions |
Tennessee Titans | 12 |
| Mike Williams | Kansas City Chiefs | |||
| Mike Evans | 16 targets
10 receptions |
10 targets
7 receptions |
New Orleans Saints | 13 |
Top 11 Red Zone RBs
| NAME, TEAM | INSIDE 20 | INSIDE 10 | WEEK 15 OPPONENT | TOTAL RED ZONE TD |
| Jonathan Taylor | 71 attempts | 35 attempts | New England Patriots | 35 |
| Dalvin Cook | 41 attempts | 25 attempts | Chicago Bears | 12 |
| Austin Ekeler | 40 attempts | 10 attempts | Kansas City Chiefs | 21 |
| Leonard Fournette | 40 attempts | 25 attempts | New Orleans Saints | 17 |
| James Conner | 38 attempts | 14 attempts | Detroit Lions | 25 |
| Antonio Gibson | 34 attempts | 21 attempts | Philadelphia Eagles | 14 |
| Melvin Gordon | 33 attempts | 19 attempts | Cincinnati Bengals | 15 |
| Derrick Henry | OUT | FOR | FANTASY | SEASON |
| Myles Gaskin | 31 attempts | 20 attempts | New York Jets | 8 |
| Damien Harris | 31 attempts | 22 attempts | DNP | 19 |
| Nick Chubb | 30 attempts | 15 attempts | Las Vegas Raiders | 7 |
Top Team Red Zone Scoring% (TD only)
| TEAM | % TD IN RED ZONE | QB | RECEIVING TARGETS INSIDE 20 | RB TARGETS INSIDE 20 | WEEK 15 OPP. |
| San Francisco | 72.97%
Week |
Jimmy Garoppolo 18 passing touchdowns in the red zone |
Brandon Aiyuk 6 touchdowns in the red zone on 14 targets | Elijah Mitchell 28 total rushing attempts 9 touchdowns |
Atlanta Falcons |
| New Orleans Saints | 67.44% | Taysom Hill 8 attempts |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ||
| Arizona Cardinals | 67.31% | Kyler Murray 18 red zone passing touchdowns | DeAndre Hopkins - out for season | James Conner | Detroit Lions |
| Seattle Seahawks | 65.63% | Russell Wilson 15 red zone touchdowns 3 interceptions | No wide receiver in the top 20 | No running back top 20 | Los Angeles Rams |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 65.52% | Tom Brady (1st) | Fournette is both top 20 in receiving and rushing | New Orleans Saints | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 65.12% | Kirk Cousins | Justin Jefferson | Dalvin Cook | Chicago Bears |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 63.64% | Jalen Hurts 21st in red-zone passing stats | No wide receiver top 25 | Hurts 17th in rushing red zone stats 19 red zone rushing touchdowns | WFT
|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 63.16% | Joe Burrow 18th red zone passing stats | No wide receiver top 20. Ja'Marr Chase has 17 total red-zone targets and 7 touchdown | Joe Mixon is 15th in red zone rushing stats he has 24 red zone rushing touchdowns. | Denver Broncos |
| Baltimore Ravens | 62.79% | Lamar Jackson (CHECK STATUS) | Mark Andrews leads the team and is 16th in red zone rushing stats. | No running back, including Jackson, is in the top 25. | Green Bay Packers
|
| Tennessee Titans | 62.50% | Ryan Tannehill is 17th in red-zone passing stats | Only Derrick Henry appears in the top 20 (even now) | Pittsburgh Steelers | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 62.16% | Ben Roethlisberger | Pat Freiermuth | Najee Harris is 23rd in red zone rushing stats. He has 16 total red zone rushing touchdowns | Tennessee Titans |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 61.90% | PLAYED | |||
| Miami Dolphins | 60.53% | Tua Tagovailoa is 21st in red-zone passing stats. He has 61 attempts and 11 touchdowns. | No wide receiver top 25 | Myles Gaskin | New York Jets |
Takeaways
Team Risers
As far as team stats go, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Miami Dolphins are the biggest risers for scoring touchdowns in the red zone.
The Steelers, on the back of tight end Freiermuth, have risen to 11th, scoring on 62.16% of their red zone attempts. They have scored 83.33% of attempts in the red zone in their last three games.
The Dolphins team has also improved their red-zone scoring efficiency, moving up to seventh from the eighth spot. Mostly thanks to their 70% success rate in the red zone in their last three games.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a team are red zone deadly. They have scored on 65.52% of attempts for the season and 69.23 % in the last three weeks. It helps that they have players in the top 11 in red zone attempts in all statistical categories.
Red Zone Fallers
The most precipitous fall for the team scoring in the red zone is the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have fallen from 13th in Week 13 to 24th in Week 15. They have scored on only 36.36% of their red zone attempts in their last three games.
Not surprising the Buffalo Bills are also trending the wrong way. The Bills have slipped from 12th in Week 13 to 18th in week 15. For the season, they have scored on 58.93% of their red zone attempts, but in the last three weeks have seen success on only 46.15% of their red zone attempts.
The Cincinnati Bengals slide from fourth two weeks ago to eighth this week results from a 50% success rate in the last three weeks in red zone scoring attempts.
Team Opponent Red Zone Scoring% (TD only)
These are teams that are hard to score against in the red zone and their Week 11 opponents. These players will be natural red zone fallers.
| TEAM | % TD ALLOWED IN RED ZONE | WEEK 15 OPPONENT | POTENTIAL FALLER | THE MORE YOU KNOW |
| New Orleans Saints | 43.59% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Leonard Fournette | New Orleans is giving up the least amount of fantasy points to the running back position (12.5) |
| New England Patriots | 45.71% | Indianapolis Colts | Jonathan Taylor | We all know the Patriots focus on the best player |
| Baltimore Ravens | 48.39% | Green Bay Packers | N/A | The Ravens' secondary is depleted, and the Packers are just the team to exploit them. |
| Seattle Seahawks | 48.89% | Los Angles Rams | ||
| Buffalo Bills | 50% | Carolina Panthers | If the Panthers had a red zone threat, it would be Cam Newton, but the quarterback carousel in Carolina makes it a moot point. | |
| Miami Dolphins | 50% | New York Jets | It is almost impossible for the Jets to fall further.
|
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 51.11% | Tennessee Titans | Without Henry in the lineup, the Titans' red zone threat is minimal. |
Worst Red-Zone Defenses
| TEAM/RANK | % TD ALLOWED | WEEK 15 OPPONENT | POTENTIAL RED ZONE RISER | THE MORE YOU KNOW |
| 32nd LAS VEGAS RAIDERS | 77.14% | Cleveland Browns | Nick Chubb | The Raiders have actually allowed 77.78% of red zone attempts to score in the last three weeks. |
| DETROIT LIONS | 74.42% | Arizona Cardinals | Chase Edmonds | This will be a James Conner game if he is healthy. |
| INDIANAPOLIS COLTS | 71.05% | New England Patriots | Whoever is starting at running back | Harris out - hamstring |
| GREEN BAY PACKERS | 69.70% | Baltimore Ravens | Mark Andrews | This would be Lamar Jackson's game but hobbled by ankle injury, hard to trust. |
| ATLANTA FALCONS | 68.75% | San Francisco Niners | Deebo Samuel | Samuel is scoring on the ground and through the air.
Look for George Kittle to make his way up the red zone riser chart |
| CLEVELAND BROWNS | 68.29% | Las Vegas Raiders | Josh Jacobs | The Browns are the epitome of Apocalyptic Covid |
| CAROLINA PANTHERS | 67.57% | Buffalo Bills | Stefon Diggs | This is Diggs and Josh Allen red zone rising week. |
| MINNESOTA VIKINGS | 67.50% | Chicago Bears | Justin Fields | The Bears have multiple coaches in Covid protocol. |
| LOS ANGELES CHARGERS | 65.45% | PLAYED | PLAYED | PLAYED |
| PHILADELPHIA EAGLES | 64.58% | WFT | Antonio Gibson | WFT may be playing with second or third-string QB. |
| JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS | 63.83% | Houston Texans |
Takeaways
The most depleted team by Covid is the team most likely to make the red zone rise. Chubb rushes 41.7% of the time inside the 20-yard line and 46.7% inside the five-yard line.
This would be a smash spot for Conner, who rushes 60.9% of the time inside the five-yard line and has 35 red zone touchdowns. With his ankle injury, look for Edmonds to increase from his 18 red zone attempts and one touchdown.
Good Luck in the playoffs!
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