Overrated and Underrated NFL Teams: Week 15 AFC Contenders and Pretenders

The 2023-24 NFL playoff race is heating up, and contenders and pretenders are establishing themselves with just four weeks remaining in the regular season. Some teams that got out to a hot start are on the decline, while others are catching fire at the right time.

There are no official "rankings" in the NFL, so we'll examine recent hype and public perception of some of the potential AFC playoff teams after Week 14.

In this article, we'll take a deep dive into the dynamic landscape of the NFL and examine the overrated and underrated teams that have emerged as contenders or pretenders in the AFC ahead of Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season.

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Week 15's Most Overrated AFC Team

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Record: 8-5
• Current Division Standing: First Place (AFC South)

The Jags are likely to win the AFC South for the second time under head coach Doug Pederson, but does anyone believe this team can make a deep run in the playoffs? The team's Week 5 win over the Buffalo Bills was impressive, but since then, it has suffered a blowout loss to the San Francisco 49ers and losses to Jake Browning and Joe Flacco.

Otherwise, they have beaten mediocre squads such as the Tennessee Titans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons, and New Orleans Saints. The Jaguars rank 16th in offensive DVOA and its defense has given up over 30 points in two straight contests against backup quarterbacks.

Jacksonville will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, and Tennessee Titans in the final three weeks of the regular season. That said, a 10 or 11-win season is well within reach. However, don't be surprised if they go "one and done" in the playoffs if they draw matchups with the Bills, Texans, Browns, or Broncos. With Trevor Lawrence (ankle) banged up and Christian Kirk (core) on Injured Reserve, this team is trending down and is looking like a clear pretender.

Martin Emerson Jr.'s second pick of the day!

📺: #JAXvsCLE on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pWMED8SAQa pic.twitter.com/PZ6ew9X8n7

— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2023

Other AFC Pretenders

• Pittsburgh Steelers
• Indianapolis Colts

The Colts proved they don't have what it takes in the Week 14 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. They were trending up due to wins over the Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Tennessee Titans, but Gardner Minshew isn't going to win a playoff game if they qualify.

Pittsburgh's offense has been a disaster under Mitch Trubisky, and it wasn't much better when Kenny Pickett was healthy.

Week 15's Most Underrated AFC Team

Buffalo Bills

• Record: 7-6
• Current Division Standing: Second Place (AFC East)

While the Bills have suffered some embarrassing losses this season, they have now become an "underrated" team in the NFL. Josh Allen has faced a ton of criticism this year due to his turnover woes, but he's also tied for second in touchdown passes (25), fifth in competition percentage (66.9%), and has the Buffalo offense at third in offensive DVOA.

The Bills defense has struggled mightily this season, but Allen is still playing like a top-five quarterback in the NFL, and no team wants to draw a matchup with Buffalo in the Wild Card Round. If the Bills can survive the tough end-of-season schedule featuring the Miami Dolphins and Dallas Cowboys, they could sneak into the playoffs.

Despite having six losses this year, the Bills are fifth in average scoring margin (+8.0), which usually indicates they are better than their record. Ultimately, the quarterback spot trumps all when playoff football begins, and although the Bills are technically the 11th-ranked AFC squad, they have no worse than the fourth-best signal-caller in the conference.

Great read on this touchdown by Josh Allen!

pic.twitter.com/VCTlojjLsJ

— Doctor Gridiron (@DrGridiron_MD) December 10, 2023

Other AFC Contenders

• Kansas City Chiefs
• Denver Broncos
• Cleveland Browns

The sky seems to be falling in Kansas City, but the Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes and a great defense. As long as the Chiefs hold onto a playoff spot, they should be viewed as legitimate contenders.

The Browns have the No. 1 defensive DVOA, and Joe Flacco has the passing offense looking as good as it has all season. Purely defensive teams rarely make a deep run in the playoffs, but Cleveland's stop unit might be just that special.

The Broncos have miraculously gone from giving up 70 points in a single game to winning six of their last seven contests. Wins over the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, and Cleveland Browns make the streak even more impressive. Could Russell Wilson have another big postseason? It will be fun to find out. The Broncos are just one game behind Kansas City in the AFC West.

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