Week 15 IDP Waivers: Preparing for the Playoffs!

It's safe to say that everyone's fantasy playoffs have started by now. That means a majority of you are out of it, while approximately 40% of you still have life left. That sort of dichotomy demands that we alter our attack on the IDP waivers a little bit.

Because it's playoff time, and because your best bet to find a waiver wire contributor is on the defensive side of the ball this late in the game, we will be aiming this week's column towards waiver defenders with premium and poor schedules ahead. Hopefully, this will help those looking to add an edge going into some tough matchups.

Next week we will change things up in a different way. In Week 16 we will look at long-term waiver defenders to add in dynasty and keeper leagues, a little taste of 2021 for those already eliminated. But that is for next week. Today we live in the now!

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IDP Settings

If you skipped my weekly rant, as many of you do, then you made a wise choice! You skipped the ramblings of a madman and now get to drink the nectars of his sweet, sweet brain! And you’ll likely notice that those nectars taste an awful lot like our waiver rankings for this week!

As a reminder, we will use the following IDP designations/league settings for our FAAB recommendations:

• Standard Scoring Leagues: This system usually rewards 1-point per tackle, 3-points per sack, 4-points per turnover, and sometimes offers 2-points for a tackle for loss (TFL) or pass deflection (PD). Standard leagues also usually only start one DL, LB, and DB, respectively. You will always prioritize your FAAB budget towards offensive players in Standard Scoring IDP leagues, though you shouldn't underestimate the value of adding a great defender in them.
• Defense Premium Leagues: Defense Premium leagues tend to try to make defensive players worth as much as offensive players. Commissioners often accomplish this by rewarding 2-points per tackle, 3-points for TFL or PDs, 4-points per sack, and 6-points per turnover. In these leagues, you don't necessarily prioritize offensive players on waivers. While it is a case-by-case analysis, defenders in these leagues can often be worth as much as most offensive waiver additions.
• Deep Defense Leagues: These are leagues that have you start a full defense, or require you to start CBs and DTs, or they are leagues so deep (think 16 team leagues) that at least 32 players at each position (DL, LB, and DB) start every week.
• Dynasty Leagues: This is self-explanatory to most. Dynasty leagues are those in which every player you draft/add is on your team until you trade or release him.

Now that we have that explanation out of the way, let's get to this week's top adds! Remember that we will only address defenders who are rostered in less than 30% of IDP leagues on ESPN, Yahoo, or other prominent sites. We will also do our best to avoid obvious additions. While players like Myles Garrett are somehow rostered in only 31% of ESPN IDP leagues, we assume that anyone reading this material knows to add Garrett if they can.

Waiver Wire Defenders With Plus Playoff Matchups

1. Kamren Curl, DB, Washington Football Team

Rostered in 9.5% of IDP leagues

I told you Curl would keep making this list until you guys add him, and you didn't add him this past week. In fact, some of you dropped him. Curl's roster rate has actually dropped since our Week 14 column. A sad fact, considering Curl just returned an interception for a touchdown against the 49ers….

For those of you wondering why Curl is on a playoff specific list, since he has been here for so long already, I will answer you directly. He is here because he has a promising playoff schedule ahead of him. The rookie has the pass-heavy Seahawks on tap, which should give him a great fantasy opportunity rate. Then he gets an average matchup with the Panthers, before he faces another nice fantasy opponent in the Eagles. Remember that the Eagles are starting a rookie QB who had the fifth most fumbles lost in college football last year… and who fumbled again last week. Philly’s rookie QB and poor offensive line offer nice championship meal for a capable blitzer like Curl.

FAAB for Playoff Run: 5%

2. Harvey Langi, LB, New York Jets

Rostered in 4.8% of leagues

Langi has been a regular LB3 in most fantasy formats since Avery Williamson was traded away, and has shown flashes of LB1 production in tackle-premium scoring. The Jets’ poor offense means most matchups are promising for Langi, as opponents are almost always playing with a lead and running the ball against them. That has been true in matchups against run-heavy offenses (see the Patriots and Raiders games), and against pass-heavy ones (see the Seahawks contest).

While Langi has produced against all types of offenses so far, his best production has come against run-oriented units like the Patriots and Chargers. Luckily for fantasy managers, the Jets’ final three matchups are all against run-first teams that have given up solid fantasy stats to opposing linebackers this year. That means that Langi should be considered a solid LB2 during the fantasy playoffs, especially for those who need a safe floor from their LB.

FAAB for Playoff Run: 1%

3. Matthew Judon, DL/LB, Baltimore Ravens

Rostered in 8.7% of leagues

Since Yannick Ngakoue came to Baltimore, Matthew Judon’s production has trended up. In the three full games he has played with the former Jaguar, Judon has two sacks, 16 tackles, and six QB hits. To make matters even better, Judon has a terrific fantasy playoff schedule ahead of him.

Over the next three weeks, he plays the Giants (seventh-most sacks allowed in the NFL), the Jaguars (tenth most sacks allowed), and the Bengals (second-most sacks allowed). That schedule is strong enough to elevate Judon ahead of other more prominent fantasy DLs like Grady Jarrett and Emmanuel Ogbah, both of whom have tougher playoff opponents. Judon’s playoff schedule and recent performance make him a high-end DL2 who is still available in more than 90% of leagues.

FAAB for Playoff Run: 1%

4. Leonard Floyd, DL/LB, Los Angeles Rams

Rostered in 8.9% of leagues

If you need a true lottery ticket defender to get you past a formidable opponent in your fantasy finals, Floyd is your guy. The former Georgia Bulldog isn’t one of those scratcher lottery tickets you get at the gas station with a cup of coffee and a pack of condoms, either. He is the kind of ticket that can have you holding a giant check on the news while grinning like an idiot…. But like any lottery ticket, Floyd is a hit-or-miss prospect. Luckily for you, his odds of hitting in Weeks 15 and 16 are relatively high.

Over the next two weeks, the Rams play the Seahawks (who have allowed the third-most sacks in the NFL) and the Jets (eighth-most sacks allowed). Floyd has already demolished Seattle once this season, and he can do it again in a contest that could see overtime and will see a lot of points being scored. The Jets are nearly as good a matchup as Seattle, too. Sam Darnold’s propensity to turn the ball over and his poor blocking all add up to a probable strip-sack for Floyd, and perhaps a touchdown if you’re lucky.

Do not be surprised if Floyd returns better numbers than the likes of Joey Bosa, Cameron Jordan, and Bradley Chubb during your fantasy playoffs. Go ahead and play your safer starters if the odds of victory are in your favor, but if you are looking at an uphill battle you may want to ride with Floyd’s high ceiling.

Note: Floyd is a far riskier option as an LB than DL. I recommend Floyd as a lottery ticket at DL, but his floor is too low to start over any top-20 LB unless you play in a Defense Premium scoring that values sacks and forced fumbles far more than tackles.

FAAB for Playoff Run: 3%

5. Kerry Hyder Jr., DL, San Francisco 49ers

Rostered in 4.8% of leagues

Hyder is a decent playoff addition for those playing in deeper fantasy leagues and looking for a DL2 with a reliable schedule ahead. Like Leonard Floyd, Hyder Jr. plays Seattle during the fantasy playoffs. Also like Floyd, Hyder Jr. already has at least one sack against those mythical birds and he could get another.

Before he goes against Seattle, Hyder Jr. has an even juicier matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. While Dallas has surrendered fewer sacks than Seattle this season, they are easily the weaker blocking unit after losing Tyron Smith and Zack Martin. Hyder and company should get after Dalton all day, making for an attractive matchup for a player available in more than 95% of leagues right now.

Consider Hyder Jr. an improvement over Grady Jarrett and Romeo Okwara in sack premium formats, thanks to his favorable schedule. He is a high-end DL3 or a low-end DL2 for those in the deeper waters of fantasy combat.

FAAB for Playoff Run: Wait

6. Avery Williamson, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Rostered in 12.4% of leagues

Williamson’s future fantasy value is in dramatic flux, but his short-term value has escalated the past two weeks. With both Robert Spillane and Devin Bush on IR, Williamson has seen his playing time and performance jump back up to what it was with the Jets. That is a good thing for fantasy managers looking for a solid LB starter in tackle-premium formats.

Williamson's ten tackles per game average over the past two weeks is not only a nice floor in fantasy, but it’s sustainable. This is the same pace he was on in New York. He can sustain this success in your fantasy playoffs, too, thanks to matchups against a weak Bengals offensive line, and the run-heavy offenses of the Colts and Browns.

Look for Williamson to maintain a level LB2 fantasy floor as long as he is a Steeler starter. He could be a sturdier option for those who are counting on just seven or so points from their LB, and have concerns about the schedule and consistency of guys like  Tremaine Edmunds and Shaq Thompson.

FAAB for Playoff Run: 3%

7. Darius Slay, CB, Philadelphia Eagles

Rostered in 1.9% of leagues

Slay is the rare cornerback with the potential, ability, and schedule coming together at once to forge a favorable fantasy future. Expect this corner to offer you CB1 or DB3 production over the next three weeks, thanks to some promising matchups and shadow coverage situations.

Next week Slay plays the indomitable DeAndre Hopkins, who averages a whopping 9.76 targets per game. That's terrific volume, and we should expect Slay to be in on every attempt.

After Hopkins, Slay faces a pass-oriented Cowboys team. While Slay didn't shadow Amari Cooper in their first matchup this year, it seems probable he will do so this time with the heavy volume Dalton sends Cooper's way.

Once he is done with Dallas, Slay will shadow Terry McLaurin for the second time this season. While that matchup didn't result in premium fantasy points last time, the injuries to Antonio Gibson and Philly’s strong run defense should force Washington to throw more than they had to in their first contest. If Dwayne Haskins is under center for those throws, we can expect a lot of them to be interceptable and in the area of McLaurin.

FAAB for a Playoff Run: Wait (Except in a CB mandated league, where you bid 5%)

Defenders With Unfavorable Playoff Matchups

While the players listed above have better than average matchups for your fantasy playoffs, not all are as lucky. The following players have tougher than usual matchups in your fantasy playoffs...

·        Marlon Humphrey, CB, Baltimore Ravens

·        Kyzir White, LB, Los Angeles Chargers

·        Fred Warner, LB, San Francisco 49ers

·        Bradley Chubb, DL/LB, Denver Broncos

·        James Bradberry, CB, New York Giants

·         Grady Jarrett, DT, Atlanta Falcons

·         Emmanuel Ogbah, DL, Miami Dolphins

By no means am I advising that you must cut or bench any of these players. However, these are players who merit lower fantasy expectations these next few weeks. If you need premium fantasy output from your defenders, these guys are less likely than usual to provide it. Shallow IDP leagues can afford to bench these sorts of players more than those in Deep Defense leagues, though.

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