Week 15 IDP Rankings, Streamers, and Notes

If you’re reading this, odds are you made your fantasy playoffs. So congrats! The odds are also good that you may have seen our IDP Waiver column this week, too. So you have a good idea of players who have a good and bad fantasy schedule ahead of them for your playoffs.

Assuming that all of these things are true, there isn't a lot more, I can say to you about constructing your team. You know how these things work, and you know how our ranks work. So I can leave you to our lists and trust you'll know how to use them to your benefit.

Note that if I have misjudged you, I apologize. This wouldn’t be the first time I made an assumption that got me and others into trouble. If you want proof of that, you can just ask the security guard at that Houston area Walgreens about ‘The Great Pinecone Debacle of 2012’…. Neither of us will be the same after that cold Flag Day night. Neither of us….

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Top-25 Fantasy Defensive Linemen of the Week

DL Streamer of the Week: Chase Young, Washington Football Team

We have been fading Young for a few weeks now, thanks to some tough matchups. The time for fading this immensely talented end is now gone, and the time to boost his stock is here. Young is finally healthy AND getting some excellent matchups at the same time.

As we have stated many times before, the Seahawks allow a ton of sacks. Because of their heavy passing offense and iffy interior blocking, Seattle has given up several prime fantasy performances to DLs who are less talented than Young is. While the rookie may face the Seahawks’ two best pass blockers for most of his snaps this week, expect Washington to allow Young to play off-the-ball a lot and move him around in space to put him in advantageous positions. Young should get at least one big play (a sack or turnover) and several tackles in this favorable matchup.

*For those looking for lower-tiered streamers at the DL or EDGE spot, consider Leonard Floyd, Javon Kinlaw, and Alex Highsmith as fill-ins, depending on just how deep your league is and how far you have to reach to get a boom player.

DL Fade of the Week: Demarcus Lawrence, Dallas Cowboys

Just because Chase Young overcame a tough matchup against the 49ers’ offensive tackles doesn’t mean everyone can do the same. In fact, it is worth noting that a vast majority of Young’s fantasy points last week didn’t even come against the Niners’ two starting tackles. Young got a vast majority of his fantasy points from a sack against a backup left tackle (Trent Williams was briefly sidelined) and a scoop for a TD that involved no small amount of luck. Without those two plays, Young’s fantasy day would have looked very different.

On the season, Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey have given up seven sacks and 45 pressures in 13 games. With Williams and McGlinchey on the field, the 49ers allow less than four pressures and less than one sack per game off the edge. Even better, according to Pro Football Focus, the Niners’ starting tackles gave up a total of three pressures and zero sacks against the trio of Chase Young, Montez Sweat, and Ryan Kerrigan last week. That kind of blocking spells a rough time for the Cowboys’ edge rushers in Week 15.

98.3% of Demarcus Lawrence's snaps this year have come on the edge against tackles.  That means he will be dealing with the same 49ers duo who kept Washington's talented line in check last week. While Washington’s edges still gave you some tackles and big plays against San Francisco, those plays didn't come against the blockers who Lawrence is likely to face most of his time this week.

Because Lawrence is big-play dependent, and because the blockers he faces this week give up very few big plays, his fantasy floor and ceiling are both limited. Consider playing a higher ceiling option (like Leonard Floyd) or a higher floor option (Matthew Judon) instead.

Top-25 Fantasy Linebackers of the Week 

LB Streamer of the Week: Jerome Baker, Miami Dolphins

Baker is a maddeningly inconsistent player, which is why we have called him droppable in several of our IDP waiver pieces this season. He has incredible highs, but his lows are below the ‘Mendoza Line’ when it comes to starting fantasy LBs. That said, when playing against offenses that rank in the top-ten in rush percentage, Baker is averaging over eight tackles per game. Even better, three and a half of Baker’s five sacks this season have come in games against quarterbacks who like to take the ball out of the pocket and can run.

This week Baker plays a Patriots offense that is both a top-ten rushing attack and has a mobile QB. It helps that Baker also cleaned up against this same Patriots attack, but we shouldn't be expecting another 16 tackle performance, either. It's nice enough knowing that the Patriots offense is precisely the type against which Baker has thrived this season. Expect him to put up LB2 numbers this week and provide a viable fill-in if you're worried about your regular starter's matchup.

LB Fade of the Week: Christian Kirksey, Green Bay Packers

When it comes to picking fades at the fantasy LB position, you’re sometimes forced to nitpick a little bit. The position is typically very deep, and a vast majority of IDP players only start one LB per team. That means you often have to choose between multiple players with serious fantasy potential each week. Nitpicking is what we have to do in fantasy to gain that slight edge against opponents, though. And this week, our nitpicking has Christian Kirksey falling lower on our boards than usual.

The Carolina Panthers offense runs the fifth-fewest plays per game and has turned the ball over the fifth-fewest times in the NFL this season. Both of those numbers indicate a capped fantasy ceiling for Kirksey. To make matters worse, the Panthers’ best healthy playmakers are guys who Kirksey won’t likely be seeing (see D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel) very often. While Mike Davis will give Kirksey some shots on the inside this week, this game's overall metrics suggest that Kirksey's probability of a boom week is low. If you need an LB with boom potential, you may want to look elsewhere this week.

Top-25 Fantasy Defensive Backs of the Week

DB Streamer of the Week: Mike Hilton, Pittsburgh Steelers

Hilton is an active nickel corner who has proven to be a viable fantasy option, even as a DB2, several times this year. While Hilton’s usage varies depending upon the opponent, in the six games that he has been on the field for more than 70% of the Steelers’ snaps, the Ole Miss alum is averaging 5.7 tackles per game and has collected a total of five PDs and four turnovers. That is a very nice output for a fantasy CB, and we should expect Hilton to see the field a majority of the game this week.

Tyler Boyd is easily the most targeted and involved WR on the Bengals this season, and he takes 82.8% of his snaps in the slot where Hilton does most of his business. With the Steelers getting pressure on 37.2% of their defensive plays this season, expect them to ramp up the rush against this poor Bengals pass-blocking unit and their backup QB. That should spell many short passes to Boyd in the slot and a lot of Hilton involvement as a result. Hilton is a CB1 this week and a borderline DB2.

*Donovan Wilson (if he plays) and Rasul Douglas are both interesting streamers this week, for those playing in CB mandated or multiple DB formats. Wilson has a solid matchup against the 49ers, and Douglas could be used to shadow Davante Adams.

DB Fade of the Week: Malcolm Butler, New Orleans Saints

This one may surprise you because the Chiefs are the ninth most pass-heavy offense in the NFL… which should spell excellent opportunities for a ball-hawking safety like Butler. Right?

The problem is Butler derives a lot of his fantasy value from turnovers and PDs. In 13 games, Butler has only four games with more than five tackles, and he has no such games since Week 8. That makes him particularly big-play dependent. Meanwhile, his opponent this week (the Chiefs) have thrown the second-fewest interceptions in the NFL (five), and they have allowed the seventh-fewest sacks all season. Patrick Mahomes rarely throws an awful pass, even when going deep, and when he does, his receivers tend to bail him out of a pick. Thus, Big Play Butler's opportunities should be limited, and his fantasy status should be relegated to the low-end DB2 area this week.

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