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Welcome to the fantasy football playoffs! Week 15 of the fantasy football season has arrived, and the stakes are higher than ever.
Whether you successfully navigated difficult matchups and injuries or lucked into drafting Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry in the first two rounds, you've made it to the dance and have a shot at a championship. Now, the lineup decisions get tougher.
Below are my 10 fantasy football busts, or players who may disappoint, for Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season. Hopefully, this will help you set winning fantasy lineups this week. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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Nick Chubb (RB, CLE) vs. Kansas City
Nick Chubb's outlook is nearly identical to last week. The veteran running back was facing a difficult matchup and needed a touchdown to avoid being a disappointment. Chubb ran for 48 yards against Pittsburgh and didn't hit paydirt. With nothing to add from the receiving department (five receptions in seven games), Chubb was a Week 14 bust.
The Browns face a more difficult matchup in Week 15. The Chiefs have been the best defense against fantasy football running backs for nearly the entire 2024 campaign. Running backs averaged 58.4 rushing yards per game against the Kansas City front. It's touchdown-or-bust again for Chubb.
The opportunities to score are limited. Chubb has averaged 35% of the snaps over the last two games while backup Jerome Ford is north of 60%.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB, NYG) vs. Baltimore
Tyrone Tracy Jr.'s fantasy success (or lack thereof) could entirely depend on his target share. Saquon Barkley is the only running back to rack up more than 63 rushing yards against Baltimore this season. Tracy hasn't run efficiently in the last couple of games with injuries on the offensive line and the complete lack of a passing threat under center. He's not winning fantasy matchups on the ground.
Running backs beat Baltimore through the air. The Ravens allow the fifth-most yards to the position. And it's a strong suit of Tracy's game, considering he was a receiver in college.
Tommy DeVito appears to be returning to starting duty in Week 15. Tracy caught four passes in DeVito's lone start (Week 12 vs. Tampa Bay). That's a good start, but Tracy still scored fewer than 10 PPR points (a lost fumble subtracted from the total). The Giants scored seven points as Tampa Bay dominated time of possession.
Just watched the Giants struggle badly at practice during a red-zone drill in the cold and heavy winds (32 mph). All 17 passes went incomplete.
Weather expected to be around 40 degrees with winds up to 11 mph on Sunday vs. Ravens.
— Jordan Raanan (@JordanRaanan) December 12, 2024
The Ravens are 16-point favorites, leaving the Giants with an implied point total of 13.5. There aren't a lot of touchdown opportunities for Tracy and he could end with a less-than-stellar result even with a handful of targets. If he's covered out of the backfield, it could get ugly.
D'Andre Swift (RB, CHI) at Minnesota
D'Andre Swift continues to dominate touches in the Chicago backfield (especially with Roschon Johnson sidelined with a concussion) but it's not translating to fantasy success. Swift's gone under 10 PPR points in three straight games.
The best of that stretch (9.5 points) came against Swift's Week 15 opponent, the Minnesota Vikings. Three of his points were from rushing (30 yards on 13 carries). The rest of his production was in the passing game.
WHAT A PLAY 🤯
📺: #MINvsCHI on FOX pic.twitter.com/TwqIJEneVJ
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) November 24, 2024
Stopping the run has been a strength of the Vikings defense all season. Minnesota allowed a hair over 3.1 yards per carry in the last four weeks. Swift's average is even worse. It's no coincidence that Swift struggled and Caleb Williams enjoyed one of his best games as a pro in the first divisional tilt.
If Swift didn't ruin your chances of making the fantasy playoffs, there's still time to pivot to another running back. Swift is also dealing with a groin injury, so be sure to monitor his status throughout the week heading into Monday Night Football.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO) vs. Washington
In three games without Derek Carr this season, Alvin Kamara had 13, seven, and 10 carries. Those are three of the four lowest carry totals of his season. The other came in the game when Carr got hurt.
The New Orleans offense becomes one-dimensional with Carr sidelined, as he will be against the Commanders. Jake Haener reportedly will get the start. The Spencer Rattler experiment failed in Carr's first absence. Kamara averaged 3.08 and 1.73 yards per carry in two of his starts.
As we know all too well at this point in Kamara's career, what he lacks in rushing production he often makes up for in the passing game. In those Rattler starts, Kamara caught five, six, and six passes, respectively.
Well, the Washington Commanders are one of the best defenses against pass-catching running backs. The unit is tied with Detroit for the fewest receptions to the position (38, 2.9 per game) and allows the fifth-fewest yards (303, 23.3 per game). No running backs have scored through the air.
Asked about uncertainty at Saints QB, Commanders defensive coordinator says, “they still have 41 right?” Pretty obvious that New Orleans offense goes thru Alvin Kamara
— JP Finlay (@JPFinlayNBCS) December 12, 2024
Kamara is also dealing with an illness that caused him to miss practices this week. He's the only offensive threat in New Orleans with Chris Olave (concussion), Rashid Shaheed (knee), and Taysom Hill (knee) out. Washington will focus its entire defensive game plan on stopping the Saints' all-time leading rusher.
Amari Cooper (WR, BUF) at Detroit
We're one week removed from the most involved Amari Cooper has been in a Buffalo Bills uniform. The midseason acquisition had 14 targets, six receptions, and 95 yards. So, what gives?
Cooper's stat line is a bit misleading. Despite the high-scoring, pass-heavy affair, his snap percentage didn't notably increase. He's hovered around the 50% mark since his second game in Buffalo. Cooper played 53% of the snaps against the Rams. These last three games have been without Keon Coleman (wrist) on the field. He's slated to return this weekend.
Keon Coleman on his status for Sunday vs. the Lions: “I’m good. Catching the ball well, so looking forward to playing on Sunday.” #Bills #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/Kl3ncPPdWI
— alex brasky (@alexbrasky) December 11, 2024
Josh Allen recorded his highest yardage total of the campaign last week. A shootout is a possibility again this week. The matchup with the Lions features the highest over/under of the week. However, I'd rather trust a full-time player in my playoff lineup than a part-time one.
DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI) vs. Pittsburgh
The squeaky wheel needs greasin'.
A.J. Brown hasn't had double-digit targets since Week 1. The final straw was a season-low target mark (four) in Week 14. Philadelphia's star receiver frustratingly called out the passing game after the victory over Carolina. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore heard the message.
#Eagles OC Kellen Moore on A.J. Brown:
“I’m gonna focus more on trying to find different ways to increase the likelihood of the ball going to him. Ultimately, the quarterback has to play based off the reaction of the defense, and trust that there’s progressions within a play.… pic.twitter.com/Fa0omlsG3J
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) December 10, 2024
It's not the greatest matchup to experiment with improving the offense. The Steelers allow the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and the sixth-fewest to wide receivers.
The coaching staff won't fully move away from the dedicated rushing attack that's propelled the Eagles to a nine-game winning streak. However, if what Moore says is true and the coaching staff makes a concerted effort to get the football into Brown's hands, then he and Saquon Barkley will be the game plan. That leaves DeVonta Smith, who is already 42nd in targets per game among receivers, with little volume in a difficult matchup.
Jayden Reed (WR, GB) at Seattle
It's easy to sit here and predict that Jayden Reed will have a dud game. He did, after all, score as many fantasy points as I did last week. However, he found the end zone twice the week prior and has weekly boom potential. No two weeks are the same.
The Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay's Sunday night opponent, have locked down wide receivers during their four-game winning streak. Deebo Samuel Sr., Garrett Wilson, and Marvin Harrison Jr. (twice) failed to reach double-digit PPR fantasy points. Overall, Seattle is second for the fewest points allowed to the position in that stretch.
Romeo Doubs (concussion) appears poised to return to the lineup on Sunday, diluting Green Bay's target share. Plus, Jordan Love hasn't thrown more than 28 passes since Week 9.
Cade Otton (TE, TB) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Unless your name is Trey McBride, tight-end success largely depends on touchdowns. Drive-ending scores assisted Cade Otton's midseason outburst. Since Mike Evans returned, Otton hasn't added six to the scoreboard. Counting on him to rebound this week is a tough ask. The Chargers are one of two teams to surrender just one touchdown to tight ends. That's the lowest mark in the league.
Midseason Otton was also Baker Mayfield's favorite target. With Evans back in the fold, Otton's averaging 4.6 targets per game. The Buccaneers are riding their running game and assisting Evans in his quest for an 11th straight 1,000-yard season. Otton isn't a priority right now.
Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF) at Detroit
It's exciting when players return from an extended absence and managers can plug them back into the starting lineup. Let's not look at Dalton Kincaid's (knee) name and forget what happened before he missed three games.
Good news on the way for Buffalo: #Bills WR Keon Coleman (wrist) and TE Dalton Kincaid (knee) are expected to practice fully today. A positive step forward in advance of the showdown with the #Lions.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 11, 2024
Kincaid was the TE19 in points per game through Week 10, his last game action. In his absence, Dawson Knox scored eight or fewer points in all three contests. Kincaid is expected to return to the field this week, along with wide receiver Keon Coleman (wrist).
Kincaid gets a matchup against the Detroit Lions in his return. The Lions are the best defense against fantasy football tight ends this season (by over a point per game). Only A.J. Barner and Tucker Kraft have scored against Detroit. Kincaid has one double-digit fantasy performance without scoring a touchdown.
Russell Wilson (QB, PIT) at Philadelphia
If streaming quarterbacks has been your strategy of choice this season, the Pittsburgh signal-callers (Russell Wilson and Justin Fields) have come through in the right spots. This isn't one of those spots.
There hasn't been a ton of fantasy success for quarterbacks during Philadelphia's undefeated October and November. Matthew Stafford and Lamar Jackson (remember the eight-point garbage-time drive?) are the only quarterbacks to score over 20 fantasy points against the Eagles since Week 4.
The one weapon from Pittsburgh's passing game that could consistently beat the Philadelphia secondary (George Pickens) isn't likely to play due to a hamstring injury. That leaves Wilson to throw to Calvin Austin III, Van Jefferson, Mike Williams, and Pat Freiermuth.
CA3, WR1?
With no George Pickens, Calvin Austin leads the #Steelers WRs through drills. pic.twitter.com/qawWVHrump
— Alan Saunders (@ASaunders_PGH) December 12, 2024
A handful of streamers (including Jameis Winston and Drake Maye) should be started over Wilson this week.
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