With the fantasy playoffs finally upon us, this is a tough week for lineup decisions in general, to say nothing of when it comes to trying to find a PPR play in a deep league. That said, there might be a few players floating around your league that could help you win your playoff matchup if you’re feeling desperate.
As always, these are guys that are owned in less than 60% in Fleaflicker leagues who could benefit rosters in PPR leagues with at least 12 teams.
Floor/Ceiling Scale: Low: 0-5 points, Medium: 6-12 points, High: 13-19 points, Very High: 20+ points
Week 14 Sneaky Starts & PPR Sleepers
Kenny Stills (WR, NO)
56% Owned in Fleaflicker leagues
Second-year player Kenny Stills is by far the most obvious player of the week, and the closest we’ll get to that 60% threshold. Ever since Brandin Cooks went down for the season with a thumb injury, Stills has filled into the New Orleans offense nicely. Over the last two games since Stills became the full-time starter, he's amassed 260 yards via 13 receptions on 15 targets.
Stills would have actually had an even bigger day against Pittsburgh last week if not for a miscue on a deep pass from quarterback Drew Brees. Historically, the Saints are notorious for spreading the ball around, to the point where deciphering which player is going to go off in a given week is extremely difficult. Even with that in mind though, you can’t argue with the production of late, and with a nice matchup against a weak Carolina secondary, Stills is the most obvious PPR plug-and-play of the week.
Floor: Medium, Ceiling: Very High (He should get enough targets not to burn you and could easily go off, just like any other Saints player.)
Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA)
34% Owned in Fleaflicker Leagues
If I'd have told you that a rookie wide receiver in 2014 has been targeted 22 times over the last two games and 37 times over the last four, I'd bet you anything you'd have guessed at least three other players before getting to Jarvis Landry. With big breakout rookie campaigns coming from guys like Odell Beckham, Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Evans, it’s easy to overlook Landry’s sheer volume over the last month. The problem, however, is that Landry has only been able to reel in 27 of those targets for receptions.
That’s not all on him, as Ryan Tannehill is one of the more sporadic quarterbacks in the league. Throw in the fact that the Dolphins still need to find ways to get Mike Wallace the ball, and you’ve got yourself a somewhat risky play in Landry. Again, it’s hard to argue against volume, which is why Landry makes the list this week. 22 targets over two games is a boatload-- just imagine what Landry could do if he had a high-caliber throwing him the ball that often.
Floor: Low, Ceiling: High (Landry faces a battered Baltimore secondary this week but don’t be surprised if Tannehill overthrows him once or twice.)
Donte Moncrief (WR, IND)
14% Owned in Fleaflicker Leagues
I said it was a rough week, didn’t I? The Colts head to Cleveland this week in a game in which many expect Browns cornerback Joe Haden to be on T.Y. Hilton for most of the day. Over the last four weeks, Haden has held Sammy Watkins, Julio Jones, Andre Johnson and A.J. Green to under 100 yards with just one touchdown between them over that stretch. (That sole touchdown went to Jones, in case you were wondering.) In short, Haden has been limiting the production of opposing teams' star wideouts over the last month.
With Haden presumably on Hilton for most of this game, the obvious assumption is that Colts quarterback Andrew Luck will target his other receivers. With Hakeem Nicks basically invisible out there and Reggie Wayne failing to fully bounce back, Moncrief might be the guy who explodes for Indy this week. Granted, he is coming off of a huge 134 -yard two-touchdown performance against Washington, so it’s a risky proposition to expect him to repeat, but someone has to catch Luck's throws. Add in the fact that Dwayne Allen is expected back at tight end this week, and you’ve got yourself a classic high-risk/high-reward play in Moncrief.
Floor: Low, Ceiling: Very High (A non-traditional good matchup play with substantial risk attached.)
Dan “Boom” Herron (RB, IND)
34% Owned in Fleaflicker Leagues
Let’s stay with the Colts for a second to assess their running back situation for the week. In case you needed another reason to ignore Trent Richardson, Dan Herron started for the Colts against the Redskins, ending the day with a whopping 11 yards per carry. Herron finished with 88 yards and a touchdown on eight attempts-- compare that to Trent Richardson’s abysmal 12 yards on eight rushes of his own. That’s a 1.5-yard average, folks. You don’t need to be a math wizard to assess how bad that is for an NFL running back.
The point here is simple: Trent Richardson is bad at football, and thus any running back in Indianapolis not named Trent Richardson is a far superior play for both real-life and fantasy football purposes. There’s been some chatter that Richardson will look to put up big numbers against his former team, and that Head Coach Chuck Pagano won’t be diminishing his role despite his lackluster play. To that, I say: whatever. I trust Herron way more than I do Richardson, even if Richardson were to get the same amount of work. 11 yards per carry > 1.5 yards per carry. Hooray math.
Floor: Medium, Ceiling: High (No one should expect a monster game from Herron but the volume is there and Trent Richardson is no true threat.)
Andre Williams (RB, NYG) *
48% Owned in Fleaflicker Leagues
This one pains me to write. You should immediately take notice of the asterisk next to my listing of Andre Williams, which is directly related to the health of one Rashad Jennings. As of writing, it is unclear whether or not Jennings will start against the Titans this week due to an ankle injury. Jennings has never exactly been known for his clean injury history, so it’s no surprise he’s dinged-up once again, but he is still the clear lead back for the Giants when healthy.
Andre Williams, on the other hand, has remained healthy, but hasn’t been very productive. When Jennings went down earlier in the year, the expectation was that Williams would be able to fill in for Jennings without too much of a drop-off in production. That never came close to materializing, and Williams went right back to being droppable for anyone who wasn’t handcuffing him to Jennings.
With a tasty matchup against the Titans this week, Williams could have a decent day should Jennings be unable to play. Tennessee has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, so the upside is certainly there for Williams this week. Unfortunately, he hasn’t shown any signs that he could lead a team’s rushing attack; personally, I’m hoping Jennings can play, just so this decision is taken out of my hands and yours.
Floor: Low, Ceiling: High (It’s a fantastic matchup against the Titans yet I wouldn’t feel great about using him. This becomes moot if Jennings is active.)
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Since I’m giving you one player whose value is solely attached to the health of the guy above him on the depth chart, I decided to throw in an extra wide receiver in case you happen to be in an even deeper league. If you’re like me and like to obtain as much information and as many opinions as you can before making a fantasy decision, you might have noticed that many rankers across various platforms have Davante Adams ranked extremely low, or in some cases, not at all. That’s because Adams is sort of a nontraditional handcuff, in the mold of Harry Douglas in Atlanta.
Should Randall Cobb or Jordy Nelson get injured, Adams would automatically become a starter, the way Douglas becomes one when Roddy White or Julio Jones are out. Coincidentally, the two teams play each other on Monday Night Football, and while none of the Green Bay receivers is hurt, the Atlanta secondary allows the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. That leaves some room for Adams to factor into the Packers passing attack, even with Cobb and Nelson on the field.
I should reinforce that this is truly a super-deep play, as I don’t think Adams is safe enough to start in even a 12-team league. Perhaps you’re in a three-WR, 14- or 16-team league, in which case Adam is definitely worth a look.
Floor: Low, Ceiling: High (Adams possesses the biggest risk among any player listed this week. This a true desperation play.)