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Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 14 Thursday Night Football: Patriots vs. Steelers.
Last week was my first covering TNF picks for Sleeper DFS this season, going 2-1 with our inaugural top picks (66-56 overall on Sleeper DFS prop picks in 2023). Let’s start Week 14 off right with three more top props.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting - there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are a few of our favorite prop picks for SNF on Sleeper DFS.
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NFL Sleeper DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Thursday Night Football
Diontae Johnson OVER 42.5 Yards
Johnson has shown a strong rapport with QB Mitch Trubisky to date. In Trubisky’s only meaningful game action this season in Week 7, Johnson tallied his only double-digit target game to finish with eight catches for 85 yards. In five Trubisky starts last season Johnson averaged 6.6 catches and 61 receiving yards, compared to 4.6 catches and 49 yards with Kenny Pickett under center.
Johnson has an excellent 97.7 matchup grade against Patriots corner J.C. Jackson on Thursday according to PFF, who he is projected to line up against frequently along the perimeter. Jackson’s 40.9 defensive grade is the lowest among starting cornerbacks this season.
In a game featuring two bottom-five scoring offenses and two backup quarterbacks, Johnson has a great opportunity to return value this week.
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Mitch Trubisky OVER 183.5 Passing Yards
With Trubisky making his first start of the season for the Steelers in a game with a 30-point over/under, sportsbooks are severely underrating his potential passing performance on Thursday.
The 2-10 Patriots enter Week 14 giving up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing fantasy quarterbacks. Despite that, the Patriots are the sixth-best matchup for QBs this week according to PFF. Bill Belichick’s defense has given up 190+ passing yards in each of the last six games, including matchups with Tommy Devito and Gardner Minshew.
In 55 career starts (five of these coming last season for Pittsburgh) Trubisky has averaged 208 passing yards per game. Look for him to exceed his prop and pass for about 200 yards on Thursday.
Ezekiel Elliott OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards
With Rhamondre Stevenson out for at least a week tending to a high-ankle sprain, Elliott will be the featured back for New England on Thursday against the Steelers. The Patriots running backs have run the ball at least 17 times in all but one game (15 rushes in Week 9 against Washington), meaning the volume will be there for Zeke to excel without much backfield competition this week.
The Steelers are allowing the 11th most rushing yards per game this season and the 14th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. They are also susceptible to stretch plays on the ground, giving up the most missed tackles per attempt of any team in the NFL (0.26).
With workhorse volume in a game where New England will do their best to limit their QB Bailey Zappe's mistakes, look for Elliott to eat this week.
Be sure to check out the rest of our prop betting coverage later this week. Good luck with your picks!
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