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Gladys Tyler evaluates red zone stats for wide receivers and tight ends to find the biggest risers and fallers heading into Week 13 and identifies WR/TE with touchdown upside.
So I was thinking, why are the red zone risers and fallers so important, and then I came across this article from Sharp Football Analysis, and suddenly it all made sense. "In the past decade, 74.1% of all offensive touchdowns have come from the red zone." And if you come across defenses that are stingy in the red zone trips of their opponents, then you know you have potential for kicker scoring (if you still believe in that stuff).
You know what that means: more tables and facts, but hopefully, more information will help you dominate your fantasy league.
Thanks to Footballguys.com, teamrankings.com, flurrysports.com, sharpfootballanalysis.com, and rotoballer.com.
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Top Team Red Zone Scoring%
(TD ONLY) AND THEIR TOP PLAYERS
| TEAM | % TD IN RED ZONE | QB STATS INSIDE 20-YARD LINE | RECEIVING TARGETS INSIDE 20-YARD LINE | RB TARGETS INSIDE 20-YARD LINE | WEEK 13 OPPONENT |
| San Francisco | 77.42% | Jimmy Garoppolo=36 attempts, 20 completions, 10 touchdowns | Seattle Seahawks | ||
| New Orleans Saints | 71.05% | Played Dallas Cowboys | |||
| Arizona Cardinals | 70.45% | Chicago Bears | |||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 70.00% | Joe Burrow= 35 attempts, 20 completions, 10 touchdowns, 2 interceptions | Joe Mixon= 24 attempts, 9 touchdowns | Los Angeles Chargers | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 68.% | San Francisco Niners | |||
| Minnesota Vikings | 67.65% | Kirk Cousins= 47 attempts, 30 completions, 16 touchdowns | Justin Jefferson=13 targets, 7 receptions, 4 touchdowns
Adam Thielen=12 targets, 10 receptions, 7 touchdowns |
Dalvin Cook= 37 attempts, four touchdowns (2nd ranked) | Detroit Lions
|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 66.00% | Tom Brady= 90 attempts, 53 completions, 21 touchdowns (1st ranked) | Chris Godwin= 19 targets, 15 receptions, 5 touchdowns
Mike Evans= 14 targets, 9 receptions, 6 touchdowns Leonard Fournette 12 targets, 8 receptions, 1 touchdown |
Leonard Fournette= 36 attempts, 6 touchdowns (3rd ranked) | Atlanta Falcons
|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 65.85% | Jalen Hurts= 27 attempts, 7 touchdowns | New York Jets | ||
| Baltimore Ravens | 65.71% | Lamar Jackson= 39 attempts, 22 completions, 11 touchdowns, 1 interception | Mark Andrews= 11 targets, 6 receptions, 5 touchdowns | Pittsburgh Steelers
|
|
| Tennessee Titans | 62.22% | Ryan Tannehill= 56 attempts, 32 completions, 12 touchdowns, 3 interceptions | Bye Week | ||
| Los Angeles Chargers | 61.70% | Justin Herbert= 61 attempts, 36 completions, 18 touchdowns, 1 interception | Keenan Allen= 14 targets, 9 receptions, 2 touchdowns
|
Austin Ekeler= 31 attempts, 7 touchdowns | Cincinnati Bengals |
| Buffalo Bills | 61.70% | Josh Allen= 71 attempts, 44 completions, 18 touchdowns, 1 interceptions | Stefon Diggs= 20 targets, 13 receptions, 7 touchdowns | Zack Moss= 23 attempts, 4 touchdowns | New England Patriots |
| Dallas Cowboys | 60.98% | Dak Prescott= 54 attempts, 32 completions, 13 touchdowns, 1 interception | Ezekiel Elliott= 27 attempts, 8 touchdowns | Played New Orleans Saints |
What Do We Know From This?
Players have to be in the top 18 to be included in stats in the above graph.
San Francisco Niners
The Niners have remained on top of the heap as a team in their red-zone efficiency, although they have fallen from 79.17% to 77.42% efficient in the red zone.
The true risers in the red zone have been the New Orleans Saints, obviously explained as the Taysom Hill effect. The Saints went from 69.70% efficient to 71.05% efficient in the red zone.
Red Zone Fallers
The Baltimore Ravens and the Seattle Seahawks have taken a plunge in their red-zone efficiency (scoring touchdowns). The Ravens have fallen from fifth to ninth, while the Seahawks went from being the second-most efficient team to the fifth.
Team Opponent Red Zone Scoring%
(TD ONLY)
These are teams that are hard to score against in the red zone and their Week 11 opponents. These players will be natural red zone fallers.
| TEAM | % TD ALLOWED IN RED ZONE | WEEK 13 OPPONENT | POTENTIAL FALLER | THE MORE YOU KNOW |
| BALTIMORE RAVENS | 42.86% | Pittsburgh Steelers | Pat Freiermuth | Freiermuth is the sixth-most efficient red-zone receiver with 15 targets, 10 receptions, and 6 touchdowns.
He has 25.9% of the team's red-zone targets |
| NEW ORLEANS SAINTS | 47.22% | PLAYED TNF | PLAYED TNF | PLAYED TNF |
| NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS | 48.39% | Buffalo Bills | Stefon Diggs | Diggs is commanding 29.9% of the team's red-zone targets |
| SEATTLE SEAHAWKS | 50.% | San Francisco Niners | Shanahan's offense has been running the ball 41 times per game over the last three games.
Elijah Mitchell, since Week 7, averages 5.14 yards per game |
|
| MIAMI DOLPHINS | 51.11% | New York Giants | Mike Glennon will be starting in place of Daniel Jones |
| MIAMI DOLPHINS | 51.11% | New York Giants | Mike Glennon will be starting in place of Daniel Jones | |
| PITTSBURGH STEELERS | 51.35% | Baltimore Ravens | Mark Andrews | Andrews is responsible for 28.20% of the team's red-zone targets |
| BUFFALO BILLS | 51.61% | New England Patriots | Hunter Henry | In week 12, the Patriots went 2 of 5 in the red zone |
The Steelers' downward spiral looks to continue as the Ravens have only allowed 20% of teams to score in the red zone in the last three weeks. Friermuth is in concussion protocol keep monitoring that situation.
Matt Brieda has taken over (temporarily?) rushing duties in Buffalo, but that Monday night game looks to be a slug-fest with the lowest over/under for the week (42) and the Bills only a 2.5-point favorite.
Teams Allowing Most Red-Zone TDs
| TEAM/RANK | % TD ALLOWED | WEEK 11 OPPONENT | POTENTIAL RED ZONE RISER | WEEK 12 STATS |
| 32nd LAS VEGAS RAIDERS | 75.86% | WFT | Logan Thomas | 6 targets, 3 receptions, 31 yards |
| DETROIT LIONS | 75% | Minnesota Vikings | Justin Jefferson
Adam Thielen |
9 targets, 4 receptions, 83 yards
7 targets, 5 receptions, 62 yards, 2 touchdowns |
| GREEN BAY PACKERS | 71.88% | BYE WEEK | BYE WEEK | BYE WEEK |
| INDIANAPOLIS COLTS | 71.05% | Houston Texans | Brandin Cooks (illness monitor progress) | 5 targets, 3 receptions, 45 yards, touchdown |
| CAROLINA PANTHERS | 69.70% | BYE WEEK | BYE WEEK | BYE WEEK |
| MINNESOTA VIKINGS | 68.75% | Detroit Lions | Josh Reynolds | 89% snap share 28 % team’s air yards |
| CLEVELAND BROWNS | 68.42% | BYE WEEK | BYE WEEK | BYE WEEK |
| ATLANTA FALCONS | 65.85% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Chris Godwin
|
21.8% team's red-zone targets
Gronkowski has 9 red-zone targets and is on the receiving end of 9.9% of the team's 91 red zone pass attempts |
| LOS ANGELES CHARGERS | 65.12% | Cincinnati Bengals | Joe Burrow | Tee Higgins has led the team in target shares since Week 10…per PFF has the second-best matchup for any WR |
| KANSAS CITY CHIEFS | 64.71 | Denver Broncos | Melvin Gordon | Gordon has 24 attempts (inside 20-yard line) and 4 touchdowns |
WHAT DO WE KNOW FROM THIS?
The Atlanta Falcons may be in for a world of hurt, going against the number one red zone passer (Brady 21 touchdowns inside 20, 17 touchdowns inside the 10), the third-ranked red zone rusher, Fournette ( six touchdowns inside the 20 and s touchdowns inside the 10), the third (Godwin) and eighth (Evans) ranked red zone receivers. Look for Gronkowski and Godwin to rise in the red zone this week.
Mixon, going against a porous Chargers defense, should rise in the red zone adding to his nine touchdowns inside the 20-yard line and his seven inside the 10-yard line.
Top Red-Zone Receivers for Week 13
Cooper Kupp: 23 targets inside the 20-yard line, nine touchdowns; 10 targets inside the 10-yard line, six touchdowns. Going against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that allows 62.50% red-zone trips converted to touchdowns. Potential riser.
Stefon Diggs: 2 targets inside 20-yard line, seven touchdowns; eight targets inside 10- yard line, four touchdowns. Potential faller against the third-ranked New England Patriots in the red zone.
Chris Godwin: 19 targets inside 20-yard line, five touchdowns; six targets inside 10-yard line, two touchdowns. Rising in the red zone against the 25th ranked Atlanta Falcons.
Pat Friermuth: 15 targets inside the 20-yard line, six touchdowns; nine targets inside the 10-yard line, five touchdowns. The potential faller is against the Ravens, who only allow 20% of attempts to be converted to touchdowns in the last three weeks.
Keenan Allen: 14 targets inside 20-yard line, two touchdowns; six targets inside 10-yard line, two touchdowns. Targets are there, but the touchdowns are not. The Bengals are meh in protecting the red-zone ranked 12th. They allow 55.88% of attempts to be converted.
Mike Evans: 14 targets inside 20-yard line, six touchdowns; nine targets inside 10-yard line, six touchdowns. *See Chris Godwin*
Tyler Higbee: 14 targets inside the 20-yard line, three touchdowns, eight targets inside the 10-yard line, two touchdowns. Potential riser going against 21st ranked Jacksonville.
Good Luck!
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