RADIO
Welcome to Week 13 of the NFL season and fantasy football action RotoBallers. This is a special week due to the Thanksgiving festivities, so let's get focused for the home stretch and playoff run.
Each week of the fantasy football season, we will be breaking down each of the NFL matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well.
Below, you will find our Week 13 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and potential waiver wire gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.
Bears @ Lions (Thursday 12:30PM, 11:30AM Local)
As has been noted multiple times this season, Thursday Night games have a factor of randomization due to their short weeks.
Matchups We Love
Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions and Golden Tate, WR, Lions
The first of the Thanksgiving Games will involve two sets of the top receiving options in the league with two erratic Quarterbacks throwing them the ball. Fortunately for Lions fans though, one set has an easier time than the other. Despite the Lions struggle to be the high power offense of the last two-three years, the Bears defense is falling apart with every passing week and facing a threat this week that they have little to no chance of containing. Megatron and Golden Tate will both be looking at possible WR1 weeks, with their floors at the low WR2 mark.
Matchups We Hate
Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears and Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears
The Detroit Lions defense doesn't allow a lot to WRs. They're averaging 57 and 32 yards per game to WR1s and WR2s, respectively, both of which are well under the league average. They've managed to shut down nearly every top receiver they've faced and have only allowed 6 touchdowns to Wide Receivers on the year. These are talented WRs, but they've got floors as low as WR4s this week against a very difficult defense.
Notable Players
Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions and Jay Cutler, QB, Bears
Two players considered to be amongst the best arms in the league and both playing as erratically as ever. They have just as high chances of being QB1s this week as they do to be low QB3s, as both offenses have struggled to score consistently. Cutler faces the harder matchup and will be fighting an uphill battle all game to try and get the points he needs to be viable. Stafford's going to have a much easier time, but with his season long troubles to adjust to the system in front of him there's a chance he still finds a way to stay out of the QB1 bracket.
Matt Forte, RB, Bears
The Detroit Lions run defense is not one you can easily test. Matt Forte's amongst the best RBs in the league but this is one of the games where he might be seeing less than 80 total yards. Despite that, the Bears are committed to using him in the redzone which will hopefully save his fantasy day, but even then the Lions are not easy to score on - they've allowed 6 rushing touchdowns on the year. Forte's in a difficult place and looking at a potentially low RB2 week.
Reggie Bush, RB, Lions, Joique Bell, RB, Lions and Theo Riddick, RB, Lions
The Bears run defense is a lot more beatable than their rivals but none of the players on the Lions rushing offense have played well enough to really justify more than a FLEX start. Bell's the lead back as of last week but current reports have Reggie Bush ready to make his comeback this week. If that's the case, Riddick falls out from a punting RB4 to a completely droppable player. Regardless, both Bush and Bell have their ceiling set at the middle of RB2 as neither have been able to get enough volume or touchdowns to really be seen as anything higher.
Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears
Detroit gives up the exact league average when it comes to tight ends, 51 yards per game. However, they've also managed to take some of the best tight ends out of games almost entirely (Gronkowski managed only 5 catches for 78 yards, way lower than what you'd expect from him). Simply put, Bennett's a risky option and a low TE2.
Eagles @ Cowboys (Thursday, 4:30 PM, 3:30PM Local)
Matchups We Love
The Entire Dallas Offense
Romo on Thanksgiving is another level. He's had less than two touchdowns only once on thanksgiving since he's started for the Cowboys, and those teams had a much more competitive defense than the Eagles. With Romo ready to go wild and forced to score a lot against the high powered offense of the Eagles, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and DeMarco Murray are all going to be receiving touchdown gifts, at least that's what i'm expecting.
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles
Game Flow should dictate that Maclin receives a lot of work this weekend, especially with the knowledge that the Cowboys weakest point in their defense is on the outside. Maclin's a likely WR1 candidate.
Matchups We Hate
Eagles Defense and Cowboys Defense
This game looks like a bloodbath.
Notable Players
LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
The Cowboys defense is almost at the exact center for defensive efficiency against the run. That bodes well for McCoy, since he's no average RB. He's looking at a good shot for another RB1 week.
Mark Sanchez, QB, Eagles and Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles
Sanchez's favorite target is far and away the rookie Matthews, especially since he spent all of the offseason practicing with him, but in this game he's likely to face the strongest point of the Cowboys defense, their slot CB. Matthews is still likely to put together WR3 numbers at worst, thanks to the Eagles fast paced offense, but it's going to depend on him beating his man- something he isn't the best at. Sanchez on the other hand is looking at a decent matchup but it's against a very opportune defense that won't be afraid to go for the ball. Although 3 TDs seem like an easy expectation, 3 INTs seem just as likely.
Seahawks @ 49ers (Thursday, 8:30 PM, 5:30PM Local)
Matchups We Love
In what's bound to be one of the more exciting games this weekend, before the game has even played there is not a single player on paper that I can say is a specifically recommended play. Although there's only a few players for whom you might not have better options (Marshawn Lynch for example) for those where you do, i'm going to recommend you take them.
Matchups We Hate
The Seattle Offense
The 49ers are currently the second best team in the league in yardage and 10th in scoring defense. That's from weeks of not having Willis, Bowman, Aldon Smith, and playing two backup Corners. Smith's back in, and that's going to really change things. Russell Wilson feels like he still has some low QB1 potential, but there's little to say that any WR is going to amass a respectable amount of targets and yards to really have value. Of all the players, only Marshawn Lynch feels like a sure starter- but on the road against a team allowing the 6th lowest rushing yards per game in the league, it just doesn't feel like it's going to be a good game.
The 49ers Offense
Can you hate two offenses in one game? I think you can. The Seahawks being on the road surely helps this team but it doesn't change that the numbers just don't help the 49ers. Colin Kaepernick too looks destined for low QB1 status, but it seems just as likely that he's kept to the low QB2 range. On paper, there's not a lot of space for Boldin, Johnson, or Crabtree to have value; and Vernon Davis' usage has already taken him out of lineups across the board. Of all the players that could receive targets, at least Boldin has the best chance since he's been one of Kaepericks favorites the last few weeks. Gore/Hyde have nearly no value this week, at least not to me.
Notable Players
Seahawks Defense and 49ers Defense
It's hard to expect either defense this week to pull out better than 6 points, but all it takes is one mistake to change that. Regardless, I want to stay away as much as possible.
Redskins @ Colts
Matchups We Love
Andrew Luck, QB, Colts, Coby Fleener, TE, Colts and T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts
The Redskins passing defense is really really bad. Ranked 31st by both Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus, they are a mess. Luck's already a sure thing at QB1, Hilton's a weekly WR1 when he's not facing the Patriots and Fleener is looking at one of the softest tight end coverages in the league. Amongst the players that will be covering him are Keenan Robinson, Perry Riley, and Brandon Merriweather who combine for just about 66 yards and 1 touchdown allowed per game into their combined coverage. Fleener is searching for another TE1 week, and is looking like he's going to get it.
Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins
Although gameflow makes it more likely that the Redskins are forced to throw than run, I can't look away from how bad the Colts have been against the run this season and think Morris doesn't have a good chance at breaking 5 yards per carry and a touchdown. I'm expecting high RB2, if not low RB1 numbers this week.
Colts Defense
The Redskins are on track to have Colt McCoy starting this weekend and despite a decent showing with the Redskins in his limited time, his history as a starter points toward a much more likely mediocre outing against two of the most opportunistic corners available. There's a good chance for a defensive touchdown in this game.
Matchups We Hate
Colt McCoy, QB, Redskins
I really don't like his chances against this pass coverage. Add in being on the road and I think there's a safe expectation of interceptions.
Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins
Without the mass of targets it's just not there for Garcon. Although he had a decent time with Colt McCoy last time (~130 yards and 1 TD across 2 games) most of it came against the horrible Titans defense. The Colts defense is much better. Garcon's a deep WR3 and potentially WR4 option.
Dan "Boom" Herron and Trent "just one more chance" Richardson
The Redskins run defense is top 8 in all statistic metrics so trusting one of these two underwhelming RBs when facing a stout run defense doesn't scream confidence. Feel free to take a long shot chance with either, as this is one of the top 5 scoring offenses in the NFL- in which case Herron feels like the better option.
Notable Players
DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins
Jackson seems more likely than Garcon to put together a decent game even with the coverage he's going to face. Still, I wouldn't expect better than a WR2 for him and more realistically see him falling into the WR3 range.
Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts
Wayne's having a downer of a season, and that's likely to keep going. There's no reason he should be in your starting lineup, unless you're desperate.
Titans @ Houston
Matchups We Love
Arian Foster, RB, Texans or Alfred Blue, RB, Texans
Foster's ability to play against Tennessee is in question, so whoever gets the starting nod will be in the legitimate RB1 conversation again. The Titans have been awful against the run all season long and are likely to get killed again. If Foster does end up playing, Blue becomes a very low RB3, and potentially an RB4.
Matchups We Hate
Nothings out of contention in this game.
Notable Players
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Texans, Andre Johnson, WR, Texans and DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans
The Titans have recently managed to become a little better at handling outside WRs but they're still (slightly) above average in the amount of yardage they give up to them. However, with Fitzpatrick at the helm there is a real limitation being added to the offense, although it's not like Mallett was really opening up the playbook. It's a difficult buy, and betting on either receiver for more than a FLEX option is not advised.
Zach Mettenberger, QB, Titans, Justin Hunter, WR, Titans and Kendall Wright, WR, Titans
I wonder if a week will ever go by where I don't feel like bringing up Justin Hunter. The Texan's average 94 yards given up to opposing WR1s, so the matchup is there but the usage hasn't been. If there's any random week where Hunter is going to have a big game, this feels like the one so I feel decently confident in saying Hunter has a WR3 floor. His teammate Wright unfortunately is just not getting the volume he needs to make the plays. Wright's closer to a WR4. As far as Mettenberger goes, he's also way low on the startable list.
Delanie Walker, TE, Titans
Walker's in a very neutral matchup and that's all there is to say about him. TE2 floor this week.
Bishop Sankey, RB, Titans
Sankey isn't given plays at the goal line and doesn't get the ball thrown at him. He's barely worth rostering at this point.
Browns @ Bills
Matchups We Love
Fred Jackson, RB, Bills
The sole player I'm willing to buy this game, the Browns are giving up the 4th most yards per carry and rushing yards per game. They're also just at league average for yards allowing to running backs through passing, at 35 yards per game. Jackson's got high RB2 floor, and some RB1 potential.
Matchups We Hate
Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns and Terrance West, RB, Browns
I'm the biggest advocate of Crowell out there, but the Bills defense is playing some wild run defense. They're amongst the best in the league at limiting opponents rushing yards per game, yards per carry and are tied for allowing the 2nd fewest rushing touchdowns. I'm benching both and not expecting better than an RB3 week from either.
Notable Players
Kyle Orton, QB, Bills, Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills, and Robert Woods, WR, Bills
First things first, Woods is unlikely to repeat his Monday performance. He's unlikely to get further out than a WR3 in any given week. Orton and Watkins are also not looking too pretty this week. Cleveland's passing defense has gotten better and better as the season has gone on and Watkins, unfortunately for him, will be facing Joe Haden all day who's returned to form after a shaky start to the season. I'm not willing to bet on any of these three Bills players this week as anything more than FLEX or backup options.
Josh Gordon, WR, Browns
The Bills are doing pretty well against opposing WRs on the season but Josh Gordon is a whole different level of player. On top of being an incredibly dangerous WR, he's going to get a high volume of passes his way which should pretty much make any matchup (save for the most elite of shutdown corners) neutral at worst. Although a WR1 week isn't exactly expected, anything lower than a WR2 would be a huge surprise. Because of him being active though, that takes every single other WR on the Browns roster down a tier.
Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns
It's looking like Cameron will finally be active this weekend. The Bills defense has allowed 50 yards per game to tight ends on the season but that comes with facing a lot of sub-par TEs, which is expected thanks to the position. Regardless, Cameron's floor seems settled as a high TE2 if he's active, since the Browns are unlikely to get a run game going against the Bills.
Chargers @ Ravens
Matchups We Love
No player here has a really great matchup, due to circumstances explained below.
Matchups We Hate
Chargers Running Backs
The Ravens run defense is exactly as good as they seemed on Monday night. They've been ranked in the top 8 all season on FO/PFF and are now in the top 5 rushing defenses in yards per game allowed. With the Chargers having offensive line problems as is, this is a bad matchup.
Notable Players
The Chargers Passing Offense
This is a tricky one. The Chargers are led by a great Quarterback but are facing one of the worst situations you can think of, where they have now lost their 3rd center for the season. On top of that, they've been dealing with horrible O-line play all season and that's caused a lot of poor plays from Rivers as the season has gone on.
To make it worse, the Ravens are currently one of the best pass rushing teams in the NFL - on PFF they're rated 1st by full tier. Rivers might be looking at another 18 point game at his peak, and that will limit the entire Chargers offense scoring capabilities. Antonio Gates, Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd are all looking at nearly unplayable floors this week.
However, where the bright side begins is that the Ravens cornerbacks have been horrible with the loss of Jimmy Smith. So although the pass rush will be heavy and making it's presence known, if the Chargers plan to keep it short and efficient (where they've been at their best) then theres a much higher chance of putting together a decent game. To summarize, the highest you want to trust a Charger this week is at FLEX.
The Ravens Offense
Rather than split these up into their own pieces, they're all going together because they've all got the same situation- the matchup is neutral. Every player in this offense is up for play (Joe Flacco, Steve Smith, Torrey Smith, Justin Forsett) and they've all got 2nd tier floors, except for Torrey who's got a WR3 floor.
Giants @ Jaguars
Matchups We Love
Giants Defense
The Jaguars have thrown an interception in every single game and have scored more than 17 points only twice this season.
Odell Beckham Jr, WR, Giants
Beckham keeps leaving everyone in awe as week after week goes by and he continues to blow it up. I want to take a moment to say that during the offseason/preseason I was telling everyone to watch for Beckham once he starts as he had just as much potential as Watkins/Evans/Mathews or anyone else to come out as the top rookie WR. Enough patting myself on the back, the Jaguars have allowed on average 87 yards to opposing WR1s. There's little they can do to stop Beckham. With that said, they are very likely to stop every single other Giants receiving option.
Matchups We Hate
The Jaguars Passing Offense
There's not enough reason to believe this week will be better than any previous one. Since the loss of Allen Robinson, there have been no players worth starting in this passing offense. Every player has a floor as low as WR5, TE3, and even QB3 and the ceiling is noticeably limited.
Notable Players
Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants
The Jaguars run defense is one of the few things they've been able to really hang their hat on this season but it's not good enough to keep opposing players locked down. Jennings might see another low rushing yardage day but his passing game work will keep him amongst the RB2 committee. His partner in crime Andre Williams is hard to make a guess of but it's a unlikely to expect better than RB3 numbers with a floor as low as RB4.
Denard Robinson, RB, Jaguars
The Giants run defense has gotten worse with every week but unfortunately so has the offense Denard has to work with. I still see Denard as a very capable FLEX option and luckily, in my eyes, he's got a higher potential to hit his upside (high RB2) than go any lower.
