Week 13 IDP Fantasy Football Rankings

Most of us remember the unprecedented disaster that was Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season. That perfect storm of bye weeks rendered countless offensive stars unavailable, forcing some to start backups at every position on their team. Remember that? Well, Week 13 could be even worse for IDP managers. This week we lose Myles Garrett, Anthony Walker Jr., Jeremy Chinn, Haason Reddick, Brian Burns, Shaq Thompson, Jeffery Simmons, Harold Landry III, Kevin Byard, David Long Jr., Jayon Brown, De’Vondre Campbell, Eric Stokes, and many others to the dreaded Bye Monster. What’s worse is we could also lose Kyle Dugger (Covid), Marcus Davenport (shoulder), Deforest Buckner (ankle), Darius Leonard (ankle), T.J. Watt (Covid), Fred Warner (hamstring), and Dre Greenlaw (abdomen) to injuries/illness as well.

For those counting, IDP managers will definitely be without two of this year’s perennial top-ten DBs, four of the best DLs (including two of our usual top-five), and one of its best LBs. That’s what we know we will lose, but it could get much worse. If all goes according to the worst plan in the world, we could end up playing without 18 of the 90 best fantasy defenders of the season. That’s 20% of this year’s best defenders gone and an average of 1.5 roster spots open for every manager in your typical 12 team IDP league.

With that kind of defensive devastation, matchups will matter more this week than they usually do. You’ll see fewer attractive names on waivers, and with few defenders hiding on your bench you’ll likely be forced to get creative… just like we were. This week you will notice that more than a few of our top defenders are of the streaming variety. As some of the best talent has dwindled away, we have been forced to pivot towards upside and matchups rather than established names and resumés. So be prepared for ambiguity, risk, and divergent opinions amongst IDP rankers this week. Playing the matchups and gambling on upside may be the only way to survive this defensive disaster…. And with that said, let’s get to our IDP rankings, shall we?

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Top-30 Fantasy Defensive Linemen of the Week

DL Streamer of the Week: Demarcus Lawrence, Dallas Cowboys

Taysom Hill took 14 sacks and fumbled the ball eight times in his last four games as a starter for the Saints. That's an average of 3.5 sacks and two fumbles per game while playing behind a 2020 Saints offensive line that was considerably better in pass protection and run blocking than this year’s unit.

Enter Demarcus Lawrence, who Jerry Jones claims will come off of IR this week and start against New Orleans. While some may expect Lawrence to lag or be limited in his first game back, the Boise State product should be effective even in a part-time role. He will benefit from the presence of Micah Parsons as a pass rusher on the other edge, and his tackle floor should be relatively high with the RPO scheme we should expect in a Hill-led offense. Consider Lawrence, who is starting in just 2.5% of IDP leagues right now, to be a high-upside DL2 in a week where you may need to chase the boom more than usual.

DL Fade of the Week: Kyle Van Noy, New England Patriots

It’s honestly hard to fade anyone this week with so many significant IDP contributors either on bye or at serious risk of sitting out with injuries. That leads us to the unenviable task of fading somebody we like a decent amount, given the other options available.

If you need reasons to fade Van Noy, you can start with the fact he has seven games this year in which he’s failed to hit five tackles, collect a sack, or force a turnover. That means he has significant boom-or-bust potential in leagues that do not reward PDs, regardless of matchup. The other reason to fade him is that Josh Allen is averaging just 1.6 sacks and only four rush attempts in the Bills’ past three contests. Buffalo also sports the fifth-best Adjusted Pass Blocking rating in the NFL this season, despite weak performances against the Jaguars and Titans.

With Allen rushing so little and his line blocking adequately, edge defenders facing the Bills are hard to trust. While Van Noy is still a borderline DL2 thanks to his big play ability and a shallow DL group this week, he has a relatively low floor against Buffalo. Don’t be surprised if he produces, but the risk of dud is higher than it usually is with him – especially if your league doesn’t reward PDs.

Top-30 Fantasy Linebackers of the Week

LB Streamer of the Week: Azeez Al-Shaair, San Francisco 49ers

With Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw both expected to miss this week, you have to love Al-Shaair’s potential to hit 100% of his team’s snaps and to take over as the leader of the 49ers’ front seven. The last time he saw that type of playing time was against these same Seahawks, and he notched double-digit tackles in that contest.

Seattle poses a higher upside matchup for Al-Shaair than they did the last time they met, too. In the three games since Russell Wilson returned from the IR, he is surrendering five pass deflections, three sacks, and 6.3 Bad Throws per contest. The quarterback known as “Mr. Unlimited” is also averaging a meager 4.4 completed air yards per attempt on the season.

Because Seattle’s run rate ranks second-to-last in the NFL since Wilson returned, Al-Shaair carries some definite downside this week. He could be completely taken out of the game if Seattle purposely avoids him or decides to air it deep all game. However, the limited nature of Seattle's passing game suggests this 49er has a good shot to pay off in IDP leagues that prioritize big plays and pass deflections. If you play in a big play scoring format, Al-Shaair has a lot of upside as San Francisco’s temporary LB1.

LB Fade of the Week: Tae Crowder, New York Giants

Over his past five games, Crowder has cracked four solo tackles just twice, and he’s exceeded seven total tackles only once. The only thing that has kept the former Bulldog fantasy viable during this time is the two turnovers and four pass deflections he's used to supplement his low tackle totals. However, those sorts of 'big plays' aren't likely to come against the NFL's sixth-most pass-heavy offense and their uber-efficient quarterback.

Over the past three weeks, Tua Tagovailoa has thrown a total of 14 incompletions. Think about that for a moment, will you? He’s averaging just 1.75 incompletions per quarter since Week 10, with an incomprehensible completion percentage of 81%. During that same span, he's turned the ball over just once, he’s taken only three sacks, and he's averaged nearly ten attempts per quarter despite entering Week 10 against the Ravens with injury limitations. That is not the kind of efficient passer you want to start your LB against when that LB has been dependent on pass deflections and turnovers lately. While it’s true Miami’s more run-heavy script of late could help Crowder lift his tackle totals this week, his recent inconsistency and the precise Dolphins’ passer simply don’t add up to a high-ceiling fantasy play.

Top-30 Fantasy Defensive Backs of the Week

DB Streamer of the Week: Jayron Kearse, Dallas Cowboys

Kearse has been a sleeper for us all season and he made our waiver column last year, too. This is the first time he cracks our top ten, however. The guy deserves credit for becoming one of the most consistently involved players on a much improved Cowboys defense, and he gets a bump thanks to a solid matchup that make him and his teammate (Lawrence) our streamers of the week.

Over his past two seasons, Taysom Hill has averaged a relatively conservative 7.2 intended air yards per attempt and 9.75 rush attempts per game as a full-time quarterback over the past two years. On top of that, the Saints happen to be the seventh most run-oriented offense in the NFL and they should stay that way with Mark Ingram and possibly Alvin Kamara now available. Because Kearse spends 58% of his time in the box or at the line of scrimmage, he should be in prime position to clean up on the Saints’ conservative playstyle. Fantasy managers should anticipate a safe tackle floor and some upside from Kearse in a matchup like that.

Other DBs to Upgrade:

• Mike Hilton v. Keenan Allen
• C. Jackson v. Stefon Diggs
• Marlon Humphrey v. Diontae Johnson
• Kyle Dugger (a top-five DB if he plays)

DB Fade of the Week: Cincinnati Bengals Safeties

We aren't fading Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell because we dislike their talent or matchup this week. In fact, the Chargers' high-flying offense and the involvement of Austin Ekeler in their passing game match up quite well for these safeties. Despite that advantage, we simply have to drop these guys until they re-establish some semblance of consistency.

In our standard IDP scoring system, Vonn Bell sits as the 22nd best scoring DB in fantasy this year. Meanwhile, Bates (the more talented of the two) ranks as the 44th highest scorer at his position. Both of those rankings are significantly lower than where they finished last season, and neither truly reflects the talent or ceiling of these former fantasy stars. However, these rankings do reflect the surprisingly low floors each of these Bengals presents on a weekly basis in 2021.

With a good matchup on deck and a shallow fantasy pool this week, both of Cincinnati's deep defenders stay in our rankings for the week. The hope is that both will outperform their spots on this list and return to being top-ten plays soon. However, their inconsistent performance and lower-than-usual ceilings simply make them too risky to keep as DB1 or DB2 plays right now. Consider starting several shadow corners with good matchups, like Humphrey and Jackson, over these two.

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