RADIO
Happy Thanksgiving, and welcome back to our Week 13 fantasy football busts -- or fantasy players who may disappoint for fantasy lineups this week.
All 32 teams are in action this holiday week, sandwiched between the two biggest bye weeks of the season. With six teams scheduled to play on Thanksgiving, and another two on Black Friday, many lineup decisions are needed earlier in the week.
Below are my 10 fantasy football busts, or players who may disappoint, for Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season. Hopefully this will help you set winning fantasy lineups this week. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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Gus Edwards (RB, LAC) at Atlanta
J.K. Dobbins injured his knee in the first half against Baltimore and was not seen again on Monday night. Gus Edwards then moved atop the depth chart, but his only impact was a one-yard touchdown plunge with under a minute remaining.
That's because the Chargers trailed the entire second half and running backs ran three times (not counting the play below that was ruled a rush but was designed as a pass play). Hassan Haskins played 73% of the snaps without Dobbins and was on the field for every third down. Edwards is and will not be involved in the passing game. Although, he clearly has some talent for catching a football.
Gus Edwards with the greatest save of a fumble you're gonna see pic.twitter.com/A2ashbavFO
— Sam Monson (@SamMonsonNFL) November 26, 2024
The Falcons are middle-of-the-pack for fantasy points surrendered to running backs. A deeper dive into the stats shows that it's mostly through the air. Atlanta is under 1,000 yards to running backs through 11 games and no back has topped triple digits against them. They've allowed 68 receptions out of the backfield. That's one fewer than Buffalo and Tampa Bay. Those teams lead in that category.
And what happens if Los Angeles falls behind? The Falcons are fresh off their bye week. The Chargers have to travel east on a short week, after getting run over by Derrick Henry. There's a chance the Falcons jump out to a quick lead, which would take Edwards off the field.
Ameer Abdullah (RB, LV) at Kansas City
This selection assumes that both Alexander Mattison (ankle) and Zamir White (quad) remain sidelined again during this short week for Las Vegas.
What a blast from the past. In his first start since 2021 (a game in which he played eight snaps and got one touch), Ameer Abdullah delivered 17.5 PPR points for an RB9 finish. The rushing production wasn't impressive (eight carries for 28 yards) but Abdullah won with what he does best: catching the football out of the backfield. The 31-year-old caught five passes for 37 yards and a touchdown.
Ameer Abdullah! What a catch for the @Raiders TD!
📺: #DENvsLV on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/AvxOSvAMMV— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2024
It was a near-perfect matchup given Abdullah's strengths. While the Broncos are fairly stout against the run, the unit has allowed the third-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards to running backs. That's not the case for the matchup against Kansas City on Black Friday.
The Chiefs give up the third-fewest receiving yards to the position and have yet to allow a running back to score through the air. That's on top of them being the best rush defense in the league. Plus, the already mediocre Raiders offense gets a downgrade with Aidan O'Connell taking over for the injured Gardner Minshew II at quarterback.
Abdullah was a fun, one-week play when six teams were on bye. Don't chase the points, and keep the veteran on the bench (but do stash him in case Mattison and White have extended absences).
D'Andre Swift (RB, CHI) at Detroit
Thursday's first game features a rare double-revenge game narrative. David Montgomery and D'Andre Swift will run against the teams that brought them into the league.
Any concerns about Detroit's elite rush defense slipping with linebacker and captain Alex Anzalone (broken arm) were quickly squashed. Jack Campbell relayed the signals to the rest of the defense and they held Jonathan Taylor to 35 yards. The Lions give up the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
The Chicago offense has vastly improved since former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was let go. With that, however, came an emphasis on utilizing second-string running back Roschon Johnson near the endzone. He's scored from one yard away in each of the last two games.
Touchdown Roschon Johnson!
📺: #MINvsCHI on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/N4A75bhZNU— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2024
Without touchdowns and against a run defense this good, Swift may not get the revenge he seeks against his former team.
James Conner (RB, ARI) at Minnesota
Teams have figured out they need to pass to beat the Minnesota defense. In their last four games, no running back has topped 50 rushing yards. Meanwhile, quarterbacks not named Mac Jones averaged 271 passing yards.
| Player | Carries | Rush Yards |
| Jonathan Taylor | 13 | 48 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | 11 | 44 |
| Tony Pollard | 9 | 15 |
| D’Andre Swift | 13 | 30 |
The Vikings let up under 17 fantasy points per game to the position. That's good for the third-fewest in the league. Conner has shown signs of decline in the last few weeks as well, topping three yards per carry once in four games.
Unlike some running backs listed above, Conner does damage through the air. He has five catches in each of his last two games. In PPR leagues, that could save his day. The outlook looks grim in non-PPR formats.
Zay Flowers (WR, BAL) vs. Philadelphia
The last time Zay Flowers appeared in this column, he exploded for 127 yards and two touchdowns. Since then, he's been fairly quiet (even in the favorable matchup against Cincinnati).
An extension of his quiet streak won't be a surprise. The Eagles have been the hottest defense over the last month and now surrender the third-fewest passing yards and fewest total yards. The Birds allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to receivers in the last four weeks.
Highest graded Corners this season:
1. Pat Surtain II (84.7)
2. Marlon Humphrey (84.0)
3. Cooper DeJean (80.4) 🦅 pic.twitter.com/dqWSSUlQk1— Word On The Birds (@WordOnTheBirds) November 26, 2024
The Ravens' playbook moves Flowers across the offense. Unfortunately, the Eagles roster three excellent cornerbacks. Darius Slay (concussion) may be inactive but Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell are blankets.
Jayden Reed (WR, GB) vs. Miami
Jayden Reed's been more cold than hot since his blistering start to the campaign. His slumber coincides with a downturn in pass attempts for Jordan Love. He's averaged 25.25 pass attempts in their last four games. In their lone loss of that stretch, he threw 39 times. The coaching staff is relying on Josh Jacobs to win football games.
We know it just takes one long catch for Reed to turn a bad affair into a strong one. Plus, Romeo Doubs (concussion) is likely sidelined which could open more opportunities for Reed. However, the Dolphins are one of the best defenses against fantasy receivers. Their secondary has given up just two catches of more than 40 yards. The only team with fewer is Reed's team, the Green Bay Packers.
Miami allows fewer than 10 points per game to slot receivers. Reed rarely lines up outside. Overall, Miami allows the second-fewest points to the position.
Jerry Jeudy (WR, CLE) at Denver
Last week, I was worried Pat Surtain II would shut down Jakobi Meyers. Instead, the Denver coaching staff stuck their star cornerback on tight end Brock Bowers. Despite seeing 10 targets, Bowers logged the second-fewest yards of his professional career.
It's been a theme this season. Surtain puts opposing receivers in prison.
Pat Surtain II has allowed the fewest receiving yards among all cornerbacks in the NFL, per @PFF.
In 11 games, PS2 has only allowed 142 yards.
That's 12.9 yards per game, going up against teams No. 1 WR.
— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) November 24, 2024
Jerry Jeudy has averaged a shade under 95 yards per game since Jameis Winston took over as the starting quarterback. Now, he gets to face his former team. Unfortunately for him, that also means Surtain defended him in practice for three years. He's very familiar with his game.
Sam Darnold (QB, MIN) vs. Arizona
Here's a surprising fact: The Arizona Cardinals are the stingiest defense against quarterbacks since Week 9. Arizona and Detroit are the two defenses holding opposing quarterbacks to under 10 points per game. The Cardinals were predicted to be one of the worst defenses in football this season.
The best of the best signal callers haven't been on the schedule but they shut down Caleb Williams and Aaron Rodgers while limiting Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa. Even with his recent high-scoring affairs (23 and 21 points), Sam Darnold averages less than a point more per game than Smith and Tagovailoa.
With all 32 teams in action, fantasy managers shouldn't look to stream Darnold in this tough matchup.
Jared Goff (QB, DET) vs. Chicago
The Bears are great against fantasy football quarterbacks. They're terrible against running backs. The Lions can win through the air or on the ground and will take what the defense gives them. You can see where this is going.
Jahmyr Gibbs breaks off a 10+ yard run once every 6.16 rushing attempts.
Ticking time bomb in the backfield. pic.twitter.com/Ztxh26t7t5
— Al Karsten (@FootballGuy_Al) November 27, 2024
Chicago defensive tackle Andrew Billings was placed on injured reserve before Week 10. In the three-and-a-half games he's missed, opposing offenses are running right through the Bears. They are the fifth-worst fantasy defense against the position in that time frame. In the same span, the Bears allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Jared Goff has attempted 25 or fewer passes in six games this season. Some have turned out in his favor (315 yards and three touchdowns versus Dallas). Others have not (145 yards and one score at Green Bay). Then, there's the very strange 85-yard, three-touchdown performance against Tennessee.
As long as David Montgomery (shoulder) is active, the Lions should lean on the ground game. Detroit is, after all, the fourth-best rushing offense in the NFL.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA) at Green Bay
Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami offense run red-hot, but will play in freezing conditions on Thanksgiving night.
Tagovailoa hasn't won a football game (0-7) when the temperature is 40 degrees or colder. He calls it a narrative that needs changing.
🎥 Tua Tagovailoa on playing in cold weather vs. Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving: "I'm excited to kill narratives. Let's go, bring it on." (@MiamiDolphins) #GoFins pic.twitter.com/PBERWbpL7N
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) November 24, 2024
But the stats say that it's more than just a narrative. His completion percentage (68% to 55%) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (2.4 to 0.8) plummet like the thermometer in Green Bay.
There's more than just the weather to worry about. The Packers are the sixth-best defense against fantasy football quarterbacks and have been even better recently (third-best over the last four weeks).
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