Week 12 IDP Rankings & Pre-Season DL Sleepers Review

Welcome back RotoBallers, to my weekly article about fantasy football IDP rankings. For those who are not familiar, every week I provide you with my IDP rankings and analysis broken down by position, along with some potential streamers.

We are now onto our second week of the pre-season IDP review. We already addressed our pre-season picks for IDP rookies and DB sleepers last week. In our IDP waiver wire column this week, we hammered on my LB sleeper misses and hits. That just leaves the very sexy DL sleepers to discuss!

Don't get too excited, though. This is a family website, after all. So try to keep your hands where I can see them and your pants on for this whole read… at least I think it's a family website. Do they rate websites as "E for Everyone"?

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Our Pre-Season DL Sleeper Review

1. Brian Burns, DE, Carolina Panthers

Burns was a sleeper for many this year, but a lot of analysts were still undervaluing him thanks to his boom/bust profile and the poor defense he plays on. Despite that risk, I kept the former Seminole inside of my final top-60 fantasy defenders to start the season for two primary reasons. One reason was that I believed in the talent. The second was that I believed he would get more playing time than he did last year, allowing him to build on the 7.5 sacks he totaled last year.

Our hopes have primarily panned out for Burns this season. He is already 1.5 sacks away from matching his rookie year total, and he still has five games left to play. While he only started five games last year, he has started every one of them this season. Thanks to his affinity for stripping the ball and bashing the QB, Burns is arguably a starter in all formats moving forward.

Hit or Miss: Hit

2. Josh Sweat, DE, Philadelphia Eagles

Sweat is a physical specimen who never quite materialized into his potential at Florida State due to injuries and various other issues. This year, we hoped that Sweat might finally realize the ceiling his physical frame holds and take advantage of the talent helping him on that deep defensive line.

The results have been decent for Sweat this year, though he hasn’t become a regular fantasy starter for most. While his playing time and production have been a bit inconsistent, he has collected four sacks and has had three games with at least five tackles. Sweat has also notched other significant plays in the form of TFLs, PDs, and turnovers. As a whole, he has become a decent DL3 and is the definition of a deep league sleeper success.

Hit or Miss: Hit

3. Takkarist McKinley, DE, formerly of the Atlanta Falcons:

Despite being a disappointment in the sack department for years, there was still a lot to like about the former first-round pick. In 2019 he averaged a pressure every 16 snaps he was on the field. In 2018 he averaged a pressure every 12 snaps. That is consistent pressure that, if turned into sacks, could make the former UCLA pass rusher a star.

Tak didn't put it all together this year, though. Instead, things fell apart. McKinley has now been dropped by three teams in less than a month. There is no indication he will be healthy enough to play again this year, or that he will play well if he does.

Hit or Miss: Miss

4. Jeffery Simmons, DT, Tennessee Titans

Simmons was a favorite prospect of mine in the 2019 NFL Draft before he tore his knee up, so it was natural he made our sleeper list. While some were down on the kid because he had “just” two sacks in nine games as a rookie, we saw the raw skills and the impact he had in games like the Titans’ playoff victories against New England and Baltimore as a sign of things to come. In fact, it was noteworthy that he even played last year at all, considering he was recovering from a serious injury in a short window.

Simmons could be labeled a "disappointment" this year in many fantasy circles, but we liked him as a solid DT performer and he has been that. While he has had only three truly fantasy-relevant games so far, the Mississippi State product has had a visible impact on every game. He has been a startable fantasy DT in at least five contests this year, and his film tells us that he will keep getting better. We told you to add him in deeper leagues and leagues where you have to start a DT, and if you did that you are likely happy with the result.

Hit or Miss: Hit

5. D.J. Jones, DT, San Francisco 49ers

Admittedly, Jones was tagged in our columns as a deep sleeper who should only be added in Deep Defense leagues requiring you to start multiple DTs. Jones is an underrated athlete we expected to help shore up the 49ers' run defense and get some leftover sacks that Nick Bosa and company left behind. The Ole Miss alum was a natural sleeper pick, but we also knew he carried a low fantasy floor if all didn’t work out.

With Bosa, Dee Ford, and others gone, Jones has had the unenviable task of taking on more blockers than we had hoped this year. While he started strong with a sack in his first game, that was a game in which both Bosa and Solomon Thomas were available. When the injuries started adding up, Jones became a low-floor option for fantasy managers in even the deepest of leagues. While his decent TFL production helps those in leagues that prioritize that stat, he is droppable in most formats.

Hit or Miss: Miss

Top-25 Fantasy Defensive Linemen of the Week

DL Streamer of the Week: Carlos Dunlap, Seattle Seahawks

During his last few games as a Bengal, Dunlap saw his usage drop well below half-time. He was part of a rotation, and the lack of snaps seemed to sap Dunlap’s fantasy relevance. Now that he is in Seattle, Dunlap is rebounding in both production and playing time.

This week Dunlap has a particularly juicy matchup against an Eagles team that has allowed the most sacks in the NFL this season. While Philly has a good run defense and a solid corner in Darius Slay, they are unlikely to stop Seattle’s multiple WR attack. Look for Philly to fall behind early, forcing Wentz to throw a lot. That should open a lot of opportunities for the newest Seahawk pass rusher.

DL Fade of the Week: Yannick Ngakoue, Baltimore Ravens

Ngakoue was a regular top-ten fantasy DL this year when he was in Minnesota. The hope was that after a few games in Baltimore, he would acclimate himself and earn a significant role in the Ravens’ defense as well. That hasn’t happened yet, and it’s looking increasingly likely that Baltimore may not end up maximizing the talents of Ngakoue like we had hoped they would learn to do.

While Ngakoue did get his first sack as a Raven this past weekend, he saw only 31% of his team's snaps. That was his lowest rate of the season, and it signaled a decline in his usage as a Raven. While that usage could spike again this week, there is little hope any increased playing time will matter against Pittsburgh. The Steelers have allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL this season, and they won't likely collapse against their biggest rivals. This matchup always demands the best from both teams, and Ngakoue could struggle if the Steelers bring their A-game.

Top-25 Fantasy Linebackers of the Week 

LB Streamer(s) of the Week: Alex Singleton, Philadelphia Eagles

Singleton has fought and scrapped his way into a serious role on this Eagles Defense, and that fight has resulted in a recent uptick in fantasy points. Over the past five weeks, Singleton has averaged over ten tackles per game. He has been even better over the past two weeks, too, averaging a whopping 14 tackles and seven outright stops per game. Those numbers paint the picture of a fantasy LB with a safe floor and promising ceiling, and he should continue his strong performance this week.

Pete Carroll has recently indicated that he would like to get back to a heavy-run game plan, and the possible return of Chris Carson could result in more run plays for Seattle. That would mean another tackle heavy game for Singleton. The Seahawks don't have to run the ball more for Singleton to be an interesting fantasy starter, though. The Seahawks are currently allowing the third-most sacks in the NFL, and Singleton has proven a decent pass rusher by generating a pressure every 3.6 rushes this year. If Seattle passes, expect Singleton to get several pressures, possibly a sack, and a number of stops in the passing game. If they go with a run-heavy game plan, expect him to load up on tackles.

LB Fade of the Week: Jerome Baker, Miami Dolphins

Baker has been frustratingly inconsistent this season. He has the talent to dominate and has done so in at least four different games this season. He also tends to disappear from the box score and the field at times.

In his last matchup with the Jets (who he plays this week), Baker put up only six total tackles. That lack of production is concerning, though it isn't the sole reason to fade Baker against Joe Flacco and company. More concerning is Baker’s recent decline in performance and playing time. Baker’s snap share has been declining over the past four weeks, but it bottomed out completely last week when he received a concerning 31% of the Dolphins defensive snaps. It is unclear whether an injury is to blame for this decline, but the decline is there, and it's relevant when ranking Baker at the deep LB position.

On paper, the Jets would seem the perfect cure for this Buckeye’s blues. The Jets are, after all, the worst team in the NFL. This matchup isn’t as ideal as it may seem, however. The Jets run the third-fewest plays in the NFL, and they are likely to fall behind and struggle to move the ball against a good Miami secondary. A low volume opponent and a recent downturn in playing time should severely limit Baker's fantasy opportunities, and those limitations have him sliding down our LB board as a result.

Prime Matchup of the Week: Joe Schobert v. Cleveland Browns RBs

Schobert’s fantasy value in 2020 has been geared heavily towards tackle premium leagues. He has only one fantasy-relevant play all season (an interception) that isn't a tackle or TFL, and that trend isn't likely to change much. With that said, the run-stopping Schobert has a prime matchup this week against his former team, the Cleveland Browns.

For the season, the Browns are the second run-heaviest team in the NFL, averaging a run on nearly 50% of their offensive plays. Over the past two weeks, since Nick Chubb returned, the Browns’ run rate has increased to an astoundingly high 65%. While some bad weather games have aggravated that rate, it is clear Cleveland wants to run the ball as much as they can. That spells a favorable script for a run-stuffer like Schobert. Elevate the Jaguars' LB to a high-end LB2 or a low-end LB1 this week.

Top-25 Fantasy Defensive Backs of the Week

DB Streamer of the Week: Kyle Dugger, New England Patriots

We have already written Dugger up several times over the past few weeks, but he bears mentioning again since his roster rate is so low.  Dugger’s stock is pointing up in fantasy and on the NFL field, and he appears to be earning the trust of the notoriously hard to please Bill Belichick. That is no small thing, nor is Dugger’s fantasy-friendly role as an athletic linebacker who is eligible as a DB. Dugger’s fantasy stock is particularly promising this week, too.

As of this writing, we do not yet know how Kyler Murray’s shoulder is doing. While the OU alum reports that he is doing fine and is feeling good, it was apparent he wasn't himself against Seattle after injuring his shoulder. In fact, that shoulder injury coincided with the third-lowest yards-per-attempt average of Murray’s season. That correlation is not a coincidence.

If Murray is not 100%, we should expect Arizona to involve its RBs more and shy away from the deep ball, a game plan that would benefit a player like Dugger. If Murray is healthy, we could still see Dugger clean up on tackles just like he did against the last highly mobile QB he faced this year (Lamar Jackson). Either way, this is a decent matchup for Dugger, who should be elevated to a DB2 ranking as a result.

DB Fade of the Week: Tracy Walker, Detroit Lions

There were some rumblings by Detroit beat writers this past summer, worrying about Walker’s role on the Lions’ defense. At that time, reports were that Walker was playing with the backups regularly and didn't see a lot of time with the first-team defense. While those worries were initially quelled when Walker was the clear starter to begin the season, the Louisiana alum has seen his involvement dip since he hurt his foot several weeks ago. Since then, the Lions have rotated Jayon Kearse onto the field more than they were before. That rotation and Walker’s struggles in coverage have severely limited the safety’s fantasy upside… and things don’t look to get better for him this week.

The first issue for Walker is the lack of opportunities he may face in Week 12. The Texans currently run the fewest plays per game in the NFL, while the Lions run the eighth fewest plays in the league. That formula could spell a lot of dead clock between plays and a decreased opportunity for fantasy points. Even worse, Houston is the sixth most pass-heavy offense in the NFL this year, and Deshaun Watson is averaging just 0.5 interceptions per game. Given Walker's already decreased playing time and his recent struggles in pass coverage, it seems possible he could sit a lot against Houston and struggle to make an impact for your fantasy team when he is on the field.

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